LITTLE ROCK — It appears, at least on paper, that if this college football season runs to course, Boise State will not be in the BCS championship game.
TCU has a better shot because of its tough road game at Utah on Saturday. A Horned Frogs victory could even put them ahead of No. 2 Auburn, which will lose some computer power even if it destroys Chattanooga. TCU vs. Utah is the last regular-season game between undefeated teams.
There is also a very real chance TCU and Boise State could play each other for a third consecutive time in a bowl - and a second consecutive in the Fiesta Bowl - but their date in Glendale, Ariz., would be Jan. 1 instead of Jan. 10, when the BCS national championship will be decided.
That doesn’t necessarily mean Boise State or TCU can’t win a national championship. The Football Writers and Associated Press championships are independent of the BCS.
Despite the fact that Boise State plays a quality opponent - again, at least on paper - this weekend, Alabama could leapfrog the Broncos in the BCS standings.
No. 4 Boise State hosts Hawaii, which is knocking on the door of all three of the major polls, but the matchup on the blue carpet may not help much with the computer rankings.
Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide go into Death Valley on Saturday to face LSU in what should be an epic defensive battle. The Tide rank No. 11 in the nation in total defense (291 yards per game) and the Tigers are No. 7 (267).
What makes Alabama favored, by around six points even in the most hostile environment in the SEC and maybe country, is its offense. The Tide offense is ranked No. 23, gaining an average of 440 yards per game. LSU’s offense is ranked 100th with an average of 317 yards per game.
There is no need to even talk about quarterback matchups or showdowns between the coaches. Nick Saban makes sense about 99 percent of the time and Leslie Miles, well, not so often.
If the No. 6 Tide win onthe road against No. 10 LSU, look for the computers to fall head-over-hard drive in love with the defending national champs. It would be their second road victory over a top 20 BCS team (Alabama 24, Arkansas 20).
So the final weekend in the SEC could come down to a one-loss Alabama vs. undefeated Auburn, and the pollsters and the computers would be hand-in-hand with the winner of that game going to the championship if it wins in the SEC Championship Game.
All of this affects the Arkansas Razorbacks’ bowl hopes. If Auburn or Alabama plays for the BCS national championship and the other goes to the Rose Bowl, that means the Capital One Bowl and the Cotton Bowl are battling for the next highest ranked team.
Obviously winning out puts the Hogs in a good position. That, combined with the attractiveness of Bobby Petrino’s jet fuel offense and the arm of Ryan Mallett, would probably leave them with the pick between the Cap One Bowl in Orlando, Fla., or the Cotton Bowl in Arlington, Texas.
If they stumble to South Carolina - something the Razorbacks need to keep in mind this week is Gamecocks 35, Crimson Tide 21 - or Mississippi State or LSU, their bowl stock could drop like interest rates.
The Capital One and Cotton bowls are going for teams with the best possible records. The Gator Bowl hasn’t had Florida since 1992, so it will go after the Gators like Santa does a chimney.
The Outback will want South Carolina, and suddenly that leaves Petrino returning to the ATL and the Chick-fil-A Bowl, which has some of the best chicken in the world but as a bowl has never warmed to the Hogs, the Music Pity in Nashville, Tenn., Memphis’ Liberty Bowl or the Papajohns.com Bowl in beautiful Birmingham, Ala., which could be left out if enough SEC teams don’t qualify.
Every weekend is important to the Hogs in the bowl picture. For the BCS scene, this is a huge weekend for TCU, but also one in which Alabama can move back into the title picture.
Sports, Pages 23 on 11/03/2010