LIKE IT IS:
Beating Tigers should give Hogs title shot
By
Wally Hall
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Forget what you might have heard from some talking heads on ESPN on Monday. If the Arkansas Razorbacks beat LSU, the Hogs are almost assured of going to the BCS National Championship Game.
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Sports, Pages 15 on 11/22/2011
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RichHog says...
It seems like computers are high on the big 12. Not sure why. But, if the hogs beat LSU it will not matter.
November 22, 2011 at 6:37 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Milesbr1 says...
If the hogs beat LSU and get left out of the BCS championship, which what I heard all freaking day on espn yesterday, then count me in for a RIOT! Go hogs! We will have to go take our respect because "they" REFUSE to give us any!
November 22, 2011 at 7:22 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
jammin says...
The Big 12 only lost 3 non-conference games this year, and that is why it is ranked higher than the SEC. Last time I checked, the SEC had lost four. Computers work with the available data, which is limited since there are so few non-conference games of real significance. The Hogs played three very weak teams, which has not helped their comparison.
November 22, 2011 at 7:48 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
HonestAbeHog says...
Schlabach says "we don't know what the computers are going to do." CORRECTION...but I think Schlabach and everyone else does know "what the computers are going to do."
The computer programs only calculate input data in "the way that" the computer programmer has written his football software program.....For Oklahoma State to be ranked above Alabama in all but one of the computers.....well that DOES ALREADY TELL US "what the computers are going to do."
Our Hogs are a great football team in spite of the computer programmers' individual software decisions they wrote into their computer programs. Their computer programs ONLY SHOW US how the minds of each computer Programmer makes decisions on what's important to them as one person...put into computer equations and logic as they write their software.
If we knew the "major decisions" that each computer program was written to use...then we could say, "Hey that's bad Logic you wrote into your computer software, guy." But the individual's computer decisions are hidden in a "BLACK BOX" that ONLY shows us their computer software's RESULTS...not the personal components that make up their ranking decisions.
November 22, 2011 at 8:24 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
LondonHawg says...
It will be interesting to see change in the format in the coming years, and in our conference schedule also. Times are changing and the Hogs are in the mix !
WPS !
November 22, 2011 at 8:25 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
MBhog says...
OU will take out OSU, so they won't be a problem. But the talking heads know that,too - which is why they are starting to push Virginia Tech as a viable option to jump over Arkansas.
November 22, 2011 at 8:41 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
HogAuthority says...
Incredibly Hogs have very strong lock on #3 right now in both Human Polls; Coaches and Harris. I think this is because humans realize they have been wrong all along. They are very slow to accept when they are wrong; thats why OU stayed at or near top for so long because they were preseason #1. A victory over LSU from a human standpoint will not only make Hogs #2 & stronger, but depending on how the game plays out, and the Bama game, Hogs could be #1. We could actually be #1 in BCS and still not play in SEC Champ game assuming Bama beats Auburn.
It is the computers that could ding us. I do not follow or trust them right now. There are 6 computers systems. After all of the losses this weekend; none of those computers have Hogs higher than #4? Worse; 1 computer has Hogs ranked #6 The computers think a 2 loss OU is better than Arkansas? Computers have Kansas State, OSU, Stanford and Oregon all ranked ahead of Arkansas? How and why? In fact computers still show OSU at #2 even with loss to Iowa State?
As far as Virginia Tech goes, it would be impossible to jump Hogs even in computers. Computers have VT ranked 8.25 while hogs are at 4.25. If we beat #1 we can only go up; and no way regardless of what VT does; they pass a red hot Hogs in the computers. It is only OSU that is real concern in computers.
Net summary, we have to do what we have been doing last 7 weeks and talk our story on how we can beat LSU, the Hogs will have to make the system pick the BCS participants by their play on the field and not by the projections of the so called talking heads (better known as idiots).
BTW The AP(e) Poll finally have it right for the first time all season. I guess I can call them AP Poll this week :-)
November 22, 2011 at 8:58 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
ua87 says...
I tried finding a phone number to call the BCS computers to find out how they calculate team rankings. I think its unlisted and thus they are unavailable for comment.
November 22, 2011 at 1:58 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
kromekote4020 says...
We have to beat LSU. Nothing else matters. All the speculation in the world will not count if we do not leave Baton Rouge with a victory on Friday. Let's all root for Auburn because I want the Hogs to win the SEC Championship on the field in the Georgia Dome.
November 22, 2011 at 4:13 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
jammin says...
UA 87
the formulas used in the Colley matrix are discussed in a detailed paper on his website - a very detailed mathematical paper. Less detailed descriptions of the other programs are also on each of their websites. You can find the basis for Elo on Wikipedia.
If we beat LSU it will come down to the humans and if they rate us # 2 as a consensus, which I think they will. If that occurs the computer numbers will not pull us down to 3. First we have to beat LSU.
Jammin
November 22, 2011 at 6:51 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
rmmr says...
EVERY SEASON NOW DAYS SCREAMS FOR AN 8 TEAM PLAYOFF! THEN FINALLY, ALL THE BULLS**T WILL END!
November 22, 2011 at 6:53 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
HogAuthority says...
Jammin,
I don't agree with your end premise. Yes the method for each computer exist not necessarily the beginning input data? They (computers) are all loaded with human input. Lets make the assumption we beat LSU. Humans already have us 3 and if we beat LSU we will be #2 or higher by humans. That is not the issue. The issue is those computers have us at #4!!! LSU is #1!!! When Bama lost they fell only only 1 spot. In Computers a LSU lost may only drop them 1. WE WILL WILL NOT PASS BAMA in that scenario. Hogs will remain at #3 and we get left out. You misstatement is computers pulling us down to #3. The computers will actually show to be moving us up to #3 which will not be enough. U R right we must win, but this will get messy one way or the other IF hogs win. We must win to see the mess.
November 22, 2011 at 8:18 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
HogAuthority says...
@jammin, remember the computers are only 1/3rd. Right now we are 4.25 in computers. If we were 3.0 or higher in computers your statement would be dead on.
Somehow I think some manipulation will occur any way based on results. We will win we should be in but a lot of folks disagree.
November 22, 2011 at 8:29 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
jammin says...
HA,
look at the point spread right now in the BCS. The difference in #2 and #3 in the two polls adds up to 0.1. The difference between #2 and #4 in the computers is 0.08. So if we are a consensus #2 in the polls, that is enough to overcome a #4 computer ranking. Those are the numbers.
AL only fell one place, but they fell below the team that beat them.
It's my opinion that the voters will rank us #2 and LSU #3 if we win the game
J
November 22, 2011 at 8:41 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
HogAuthority says...
@jammin
You will not believe this. I apologize for Hog fans and sports buffs that may be reading this. I know math gives most a headache; so you have been advised to stop NOW!!!
Assumption: Lets say Hogs win, and Bama Win. We concede that Hogs are not likely to jump Bama. So the question is who is 2 and who is 3?
Assume both human polls get it right.
1. Bama
2. Hogs
3. LSU
Assume the Computers SCREWS US (good assumption :-)
1. Bama
2. LSU
3. OSU
4. Hogs
That would mean the Hogs would have the following rankings for BCS:
2 Harris
2 Coaches
4 Computers
2*.3333= .6666
2*.3333= .6666
4*.3333= 1.3332
Hogs new Ranking will be 2.6664
That would also mean LSU would have the following rankings for BCS:
3 Harris = 3*.3333=.9999
3 Coaches = 3*.3333=.9999
2 Computers = 2*.3333=.6666
Tigers new ranking 2.6664
It would be an exact TIE!!!! There is no other TIEBREAKER!!!!
Validate my numbers / methodology if you will; but I am amazed that it is even closer than I thought. We need to win badly so I can see what the hell will happen :-)
November 22, 2011 at 9:42 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
HogAuthority says...
SEC Board of Directors need to step and issue an emergency new provision that says in 3 way tie with A beating B; and B beating C; and C beating A; resulting in all being 1 - 1 against each other; then team that played both games on the road shall advance.
November 22, 2011 at 9:52 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
jammin says...
HA - you are calculating the points based on 'position', but points are based on an 'index' from 0 to 1 for all three rankings. The numbers are :
Harris USAToday Computer : Avg
1. LSU 1.0000 1.000 1.0000 : 1.00
2. Alabama .9593 .9580 .930 : .949
3. Arkansas .9110 .9146 .870 : .8985
4. OSU .7885 .7837 .950 : .8408
jammin
November 22, 2011 at 10:12 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
HogAuthority says...
So in same scenario using the indexes?
Hogs would edge out by .0105 points; still too close to call; but it it would be mathematically legit in Hogs favor!!!
I do follow your logic and do understand your end premise now :-)
U B Jammin
Hogs 0.9593 0.958 .870 = .9291
LSU .9110 .9146 .930 = .9185
November 22, 2011 at 10:38 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
HonestAbeHog says...
In past years, Wally has told us that "during the season" some of the Computer Programmers "PROGRAM" has been changed or re-written a little.....strictly to please the Programmer...the ONE person writing the Computer Software Program. Whose to say they won't change their programs again just a little this week? (and you could bet any last minute changes won't help Arkansas). But yes, we must beat LSU first.
November 23, 2011 at 1:16 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
HogAuthority says...
HonestAbe,
U R right because after the BCS show last Sunday night, the Billingsly computer made changes. He had Hogs at 7, but the change had Hogs at #5. Better, but still not right.
Another BIG factor that is overlooked is that the SEC West winner will be decided without the luxury of BCS regular season impact of OSU / OU game. That is Sooooooo Pig Soooooie critical. With OSU holding the bogus #2 spot over Bama & Arkansas in Computers. OSU could lose later and that would ascend Hogs for sure #3 making it possible for Hogs to overtake Bama based on Human Poll results. Yes it is all based on a win, but we need to have our homework done so we can counter all of the talking heads points leading up to and following the game should we pull off the coup.
The latter might be a good thing because it will only keep us out the SEC Champ game but when BCS Title time come we will be sitting there.
November 23, 2011 at 8:35 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
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