OFFENSE
Quarterback
Dak Prescott (222-343 passing, 2,651 yards, 18 TDs, 2 INTs) has thrown for 300-plus yards in each of his past 4 games and is second in the SEC with 265.1 passing yards per game. Prescott is completing 64.7 percent of his throws. He owns 35 school records, including 8,234 passing yards and responsibility for 100 TDs. Prescott leads the nation in TD-to-INT ratio (9-1) and is No. 29 in pass efficiency (145.8).
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Brandon Allen (183-284 passing, 2,617 yards, 22 TDs, 6 INTs) is No. 10 nationally in pass efficiency (163.2) and tied for No. 9 with 9.2 yards per attempt. Allen leads the SEC in pass efficiency and TD passes (14) in SEC games. Allen has 56 career TD passes to rank 3rd at Arkansas and his 6,640 passing yards is second to Prescott among active SEC QBs.
ADVANTAGE Miss. State
Running back
Mississippi State’s best runner is Dak Prescott (112-432 rushing, 7 TDs) who produces on designed runs and scrambles. The Bulldogs miss Josh Robinson. Top tailback Brandon Holloway (55-254, 4.6 yards per carry) has not scored a rushing touchdown, while Ashton Shumpert (51-179, 3.5 ypc) has 1.
Alex Collins (199-1,209 rushing, 14 TDs) averages 6.1 yards per carry and ranks No. 15 in the nation with 120.9 yards per game. Collins has 6 100-yard games in his past 7 and 8 on the year. He needs 5 carries to eclipse his career high of 204. Kody Walker (58-254, 4) ran for 88 yards on LSU last week, giving Collins needed rest.
ADVANTAGE Arkansas
Receivers/tight ends
Fred Ross (59-662 receiving, 2 TDs) leads the league with 48 receptions in SEC games and has 19 catches in his past 2. Matchup problem De’Runnya Wilson (40-664, 8) is questionable with a neck injury suffered last week. Wilson is No. 4 in the SEC with 66.4 yards per game and Ross is No. 5 (66.2). Fred Brown (21-332, 2) and Donald Gray (16-328, 2) are threats, as is TE Gus Walley (17-136, 1).
Speedster Dominique Reed (21-425 receiving, 6) has scored 7 TDs in the past 6 games. Drew Morgan (45-639, 9), slowed with a shoulder injury last week, is No. 7 in the SEC with 63.9 yards per game. Jared Cornelius (17-277, 2) scored on a sweep last week. TEs Hunter Henry (37-490, 1) had a 7-110 line on the Dogs last year, and Jeremy Sprinkle (17-261, 2) are dangerous.
ADVANTAGE Arkansas
Line
Mississippi State has started veteran tackles Rufus Warren and Justin Senior, guards Justin Malone and Devon Desper and center Jamaal Clayborn in 9 of 10 games. Desper and Senior on the right side are juniors and the others are seniors. The Bulldogs are No. 99 in rushing (141.3), No. 40 in total offense (438.4) and No. 70 with 2.2 sacks allowed per game.
Arkansas’ group of 10-game starters: LT Denver Kirkland, LG Sebastian Tretola, C Mitch Smothers, RG Frank Ragnow and RT Dan Skipper has been mashing lately. The Hogs have allowed 11 sacks (1.1 per game) to rank No. 2 in the SEC, No. 13 in the nation. They are No. 32 in rushing (203.0), and No. 25 in total offense (469.3).
ADVANTAGE Arkansas
DEFENSE
Line
End A.J. Jefferson (42, 12.5 TFL, 5 sacks, 6 hurries) ranks fifth in the SEC in tackles for loss. Ryan Brown (35, 2.5 sacks, 9 hurries) starts at the other end spot. Chris Jones (35, 6 TFL, 2.5 sacks), Nelson Adams (19) are the top tackles and Jonathan Calvin (26, 5.5 TFL) works at end.
Arkansas had a season-best 5 sacks last week, led by 2.5 from Deatrich Wise (20 tackles, 7 TFL, 4.5 sacks). Tackle DeMarcus Hodge (25, 7, 1) is finishing strong alongside Taiwan Johnson (16, 3.5 TFL). Tevin Beanum (20, 4, 1.5), JaMichael Winston (17, 1 TFL), Bijhon Jackson (6, 1.5), Hjalte Froholdt (3) and Armon Watts (2) get reps.
ADVANTAGE Mississippi State
Linebackers
Richie Brown (79, 8 TFL, 5.5 sacks) in the middle and Beniquez Brown (70, 7, 2) on the outside have full stat lines, with 5 combined hurries, 2 INTs and a blocked kick. J.T. Gray (46, 1.5 TFL), a 196-pounder, splits time at the other starting spot with 212-pound Zach Jackson (37, 3, 1). Gerri Green (42, 2.5 TFL, 1 INT) also plays the middle.
Freshman Dre Greenlaw (84, 3.5 TFL, 1 hurry) made his first sack count last week with a strip that was recovered by junior Brooks Ellis (80, 5.5 TFL, 3 hurries). Greenlaw took the team tackle lead with 12 last week. Karl Roesler (11, 2.5, 1), who has helped as a reserve end, had good reps at Sam last week with Dwayne Eugene (14) ailing.
ADVANTAGE Even
Secondary
The Bulldogs lost top cover men Will Redmond and Kendrick Market to injury. Kivon Coman (61, 5 PBU) and Brandon Bryant (43, 2 TFL, 2 INT) are the top safeties, while Taveze Calhoun (31, 5.5 TFL, 2 INT), Tolando Cleveland (29, 3.5 TFL, 2 PBU) and Jamoral Graham (18, 1 TFL) take the most reps at cornerback.
The Razorbacks tackled well at LSU, but they’re No. 113 with 282 passing yards allowed per game. Rohan Gaines (53, 1 TFL, 1 INT), Josh Liddell (37, 1 INT, 2 PBU) and Santos Ramirez (29, 1 INT, 3 PBU) play safety. HenreToliver (45, 4 TFL, 1 INT, 6 PBU), Jared Collins (36, 1 INT, 6 PBU), D.J. Dean (31, 2 INT) and Kevin Richardson (28) are cover guys.
ADVANTAGE Mississippi State
Special teams
Brandon Holloway is No. 29 in kickoff returns (25.3), including a 100-yard TD. The Bulldogs are No. 102 in net punting (35.3). Logan Cooke (42.2 average) is coming off a good game vs. Alabama. Westin Graves is 11 of 14 on FGs, including 3 of 5 from 40-plus yards.
Dominique Reed had a 40-yard kick return last week. Toby Baker (40.4 average) has been consistent lately. Cole Hedlund is 8 of 12 on FGs, with a 45-yarder at Ole Miss. D.J. Dean and Jared Cornelius are quality punt returners. The Hogs are No. 65 in kickoff return defense.
ADVANTAGE Even
Intangibles
The Bulldogs hold a three-game winning streak in the series, including their first victory in the state in 2013, so confidence won’t be an issue. Additionally, Dak Prescott’s running, scrambling and passing would seem to match up well with the Arkansas defense. This projects to be the coldest weather game for either team this season.
Arkansas has a chance at its first 8-victory season since 2011 by winning today and next week against Missouri. The Razorbacks should be full-steam ahead with confidence given their four-game winning streak. They also excelled in cold weather games in 2014, and that looks like a factor tonight.
ADVANTAGE Arkansas