FAYETTEVILLE — If recent history is any indication, chances are slim that Frank Ragnow will be a high NFL draft pick if he chooses to forego his final season at Arkansas.
Ragnow, a junior, submitted paperwork to the NFL Draft's advisory board following the Razorbacks' regular-season finale against Missouri last month. He has until Jan. 18 to declare for the draft or return for his senior season at Arkansas.
He should receive a grade from the advisory board sometime this month that will include his projected slot in the draft, as well as areas he would need to work on most to improve his draft stock.
More and more, NFL teams appear to value fourth- and fifth-year college linemen, especially at the interior positions, guard and center.
Of the 14 centers taken in the first, second and third rounds of the draft since 2011, only one - Marcus Martin - had less than four years in a college program. The last underclassman center to be drafted in the first round was Maurkice Pouncey in 2010.
Ragnow said being drafted high is important to him, but he doesn't have a make-or-break round in mind.
"I mean obviously I want to go as high as possible and if I can't go high, I don't want to leave," Ragnow said, "But I don't have anything set in stone. I'm just trying to listen to more advice from everybody I'm talking to and see the number, talk to my mother and see if I'm confident with it.
"Obviously I want to go first-round like everybody else."
Ragnow has played multiple interior positions during his time at Arkansas. He started 13 games at guard before moving to starting center prior to his junior season. Ragnow said he is comfortable playing both positions.
Larry Beightol, who spent 22 seasons as an NFL offensive line coach, said he sees Ragnow as a center prospect.
"I certainly like his size, I like his quickness, I like his hands - he uses his hands extremely well," said Beightol, a former Arkansas assistant coach who lives in Fayetteville. "I think he's a big-time player. He's going to be a dandy, in my opinion."
Beightol said he doesn't think there is a stigma about drafting underclassmen on the interior line, and the recent trend of older centers going early is a byproduct of those players being more NFL-ready. With only seven draft rounds, what NFL teams want, Beightol said, are players who aren't perceived as risky choices.
"What they like is people they know for sure can play," Beightol said. "I think Frank is in that category. I think he's a player that definitely can play in the next level and I think he will.
"Now, he doesn't need to be in a hurry to go. I think the more experience he gains, the better player he's going to be at the next level.
"Professional football is a tough sport, a tough game. That doesn't mean college football isn't, because it is, but (the NFL) is just a very difficult, tough game."
Ragnow had a solid junior season. The website ProFootballFocus.com rated him the best center in college football in 2016.
But others were not as high on him. SEC coaches didn't vote him to either of their first or second all-SEC teams, and he was a second-team all-SEC selection by The Associated Press only because two players tied for first-team honors. He was not one of the four centers listed in the final Schneider Scale, a metric used by the Outland Trophy to assess the nation's best offensive linemen.
Mitch Petrus, a Little Rock-based TV and radio football analyst, watched all of Ragnow's games this season and said he is one of Arkansas' best offensive linemen "in a long time." But Petrus, who played three NFL seasons and won a Super Bowl title, said he would caution linemen about going pro early.
"I wouldn't consider leaving unless I get a draft status back in the first three rounds," Petrus said recently during a segment on the radio program Game On with Wess Moore. "Other than that, I think you're really taking a gamble.
"You want to be able to secure yourself well enough in the draft to get an opportunity. The higher you get drafted, the more opportunities you're going to get."
Petrus said there is a lot to like about Ragnow, including how well he has played in the wake of his father dying in October. Ragnow most of the week leading up to the Alabama game at his home in Minnesota, but did not miss a snap that game or the rest of the season.
"That's something to be said about his character and the type of person he is," Petrus said.
Ragnow's inner-circle of advisors includes Arkansas coach Bret Bielema and offensive line coach Kurt Anderson. Both have unique draft perspectives - Bielema as a head coach who has had success putting offensive linemen in the NFL (two NFL starting centers, Travis Swanson of the Lions and Travis Frederick of the Cowboys, played for him), and Anderson as a former assistant coach for the Buffalo Bills.
"There are times that he and I get one-on-one time, and we talk about certain things," Anderson said. "He'll pick my brain about the NFL and stuff like that. But in terms of advice to him one way or the other, it's going to be his decision.
"There's no doubt in mind that if he decided to go that he would be taken and would make a team But would it be a position where he could walk in and be a day one starter? I don't know."
Anderson said he thinks Ragnow is "the best center in the country" because of his leadership, ability to see defensive rotations and to change offensive line protections. But Anderson said Ragnow can benefit from another year at Arkansas and is hopeful Ragnow's love for college football will lure him back for his senior season.
"He's got a lot of personal goals and team goals that he can accomplish if he comes back," Anderson said. "He can be elected captain. If he comes back, it's going to be my goal to make him the Rimington Trophy winner (as the nation's best center).
"I think he's built his football IQ and his understanding of the game...where he can make an immediate impact on a team after another year of maturing, after another year of developing."