State of the Hogs: How can Arkansas get to 9 wins?

Arkansas quarterback Austin Allen hands off the ball during a game against UT-Martin on Saturday, Oct. 31, 2015, at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville.

— What would it take for Arkansas to win nine games in the 2016 season? First, I think it's possible.

Probable? No, I didn't say that.

A team replacing three starters in the offensive line and a new quarterback needs some help to get to nine victories in the regular season with six games in the SEC West, plus defending East winner Florida.

So what has to happen for Bret Bielema's fourth team to take a bigger step up than the last two? Remember, the Hogs have gone from 3-9 (0-8 SEC) to 7-6 (2-6), to 8-5 (5-3) under Bielema. Winning nine games (and four or five in the SEC) next season would be another big step up.

First, let's make it clear that I want the bowl game as a chance to get the ninth victory. So that would be a possible eight wins in the regular season. I like Bielema's chances in bowl games. The Hogs have rolled the last two years against Texas and Kansas State. So his formula in postseason has worked at Arkansas.

What has to happen starts with Austin Allen, the clear starter at quarterback. Everything I saw in the spring says Allen can be a winner for Bielema. The key is that there seems to be the same kind of mesh between quarterback and coach that I saw last year with Brandon Allen and play caller Dan Enos, the quarterbacks coach offensive coordinator.

Enos seems to have the magic touch in keeping his quarterback functioning at a high level against SEC West defenses, which is no easy trick. His ability to make the QB work forward in the pocket is a major plus. This Allen may do it better than the previous Allen. He has a chill about him that is a major plus at his position and Enos knows how to use that for good results.

So that part is all good. I worry less about Allen stepping in for his brother than some national experts. I just know Austin better, dating back to the time I watched him at Fayetteville High School. He's going to play well as a fourth-year junior.

Lets move on to the offensive line. The key will be the mesh on the left side of the line with Colton Jackson at tackle and Hjalte Froholdt at guard. Perhaps JUCO transfer Paul Ramirez will play or Texas transfer Jake Raulerson, also a possibility at center.

Kinda like those that worry about Austin at QB, I worry less about the offensive line. I think it's easier to protect in Arkansas' play-action passing scheme where stopping the run is the top chore for a defensive front. And I think Arkansas will be able to run the ball enough to give SEC defenses problems.

Still, new O-line coach Kurt Anderson needs some good things to happen - mainly keep the same guys on the field healthy. He'll have August to get them ready and he'l need every minute to get the proper fit in the offensive line, led by center Frank Ragnow and tackle Dan Skipper. Well, don't be surprised if Skipper slides to guard to allow Brian Wallace a chance at right tackle, his more natural position.

I wonder if the Hogs might also get a come through in the offensive line from guard Deion Malone. He was the transfer who played on the JUCO national title team last season and was a leader of that squad. He was feeling his way through a different offense last spring. Enos told me in May there is an expectation that Malone might be a new man after a summer perfecting the steps and plays that were all new to him in the spring.

The Hogs also need some come throughs in another key position in the Bielema offense. Tight end has been a strength for years in his system. I recall the way Bielema's Wisconsin team used Travis Beckum in the Capital One Bowl against the Hogs. He was a beast.

Jeremy Sprinkle gives the Hogs another beast at tight end, but it makes a major difference when Enos can incorporate another tight end or possibly two more in special sets, then move them around the field to confound defensive coordinators.

The Hogs need that second tight end to step up. If the Hogs are going to win nine games, they need two or three to blossom from among the group of Jack Kraus, Austin Cantrell, Will Gragg, C.J. O'Grady and Jamario Bell. Anthony Antwine, moved from wideout, is another who got tight end work in the spring and could lend a hand if those others aren't ready.

I look for Kraus and Antwine to be more than adequate and take snaps from those youngsters in support of Sprinkle. This will be the surprise position of 2016 and a reason the Hogs push to nine wins, especially if one of the redshirt freshmen emerge.

I think the Hogs are going to be really good at wide receiver. There is hope that Keon Hatcher can return to his form of the spring 2015 when he was one of the best players on the team. As that position stands now, he could do that and be just one of the best players there. The Hogs are that improved at wideout with Drew Morgan (fully recovered from shoulder surgery), Dominique Reed, Jared Cornelius and Cody Holister. I expect Deon Stewart and LaMichael Pettway to blossom this year. Both are SEC talents.

Someone has to step up to be a 1,000-yard rusher. It could be any number of running backs, but my bet is on either Rawleigh Williams or Devwah Whaley. Both are perfect for the Bielema system. They have enough speed, power and just enough wiggle to make the Arkansas offense go. If I was going go make a bet on the one who emerges, it would be Whaley. He was the best back in Texas last year, just as Alex Collins was the best in Florida three years ago. That's a mouth full.

I've always said that the best athlete in the world is an SEC tailback. Whaley fits that bill best on this team because of his speed and athleticism. I think he's going to be a special player, an SEC tailback.

Defensively, I'm comfortable with what I saw in the spring. It reminded me of what I saw to end the 2014 season when the Hogs blanked both LSU and Ole Miss. This defense was sound and poised from start to finish in the spring. There are playmakers and the secondary firmed up in coverage under new assistant Paul Rhoads.

I think Rhoads was a smoking hot addition to Bielema's staff. When I think of A-plus hires throughout history at Arkansas, Rhoads has to be among the top on the list. It was a perfect fit as far as chemistry with both players and the staff. Defensive coordinator Robb Smith was elated with the results.

In that respect, to get to nine, the safeties have to emerge as top players. I saw improvement in the spring with Josh Liddell, Santos Ramirez and De'Andre Coley. They attack to tackle with better angles. They do not give up the deep ball. They play the safety position in a sound, productive manner – with the ability to produce a few splatters. Splatters equal fumbles, even in the SEC West.

Cornerback play improved, too. There was some evidence of press coverage, lacking against spread teams in the past. Rhoads said that comes from becoming more confident. The coverages were tighter against quality receivers, obviously a team strength.

Kevin Richardson is the wild card in the secondary with knowledge to play every position and be an ace as a Sam linebacker in specialty situations requiring six defensive backs. Jared Collins, Henre' Toliver, D.J. Dean and Willie Sykes give Rhoads lots of options and ability to keep fresh corners on the field. It's a big reason I think the Hogs might win nine.

The front is quality. I already saw a breakthrough at defensive end with McTelvin Agim, the true freshman now a starter in specialty packages on third down. He's a deluxe pass rusher. Line coach Rory Segrest did a wonderful job teaching Agim technique, something that showed up in scrimmages. Agim has a great feel for certain situations as plays develop, as noted by Bielema after one scrimmage.

Weakside linebacker Dre Greenlaw and the strongside combination of Khalia Hackett and Randy Ramsey were major upgrades in the spring. They didn't bust and they made plays. Backups Kenderick Jackson (middle) and Dwayne Eugene (weakside) are major come-throughs at linebacker.

The big news is that there are four freshmen to help at linebacker and probably play in special teams. Linebackers with speed in special teams can play as rookies. It may be a big deal for the overall roster.

I'm saving the best for last, the experience in the defensive front with end Deatrich Wise, tackle Jeremiah Ledbetter, middle linebacker Brooks Ellis and nose tackles Taiwan Johnson and Bijohn Jackson. Those are true SEC playmakers. Greenlaw has just enough experience that he may graduate into this class before season's end. He looked like an SEC playmaker in the spring, eliminating the busts that were obvious quarter-after-quarter last year.

Wise has emerged as a true vocal leader. He could be a first-round draft pick, as could Sprinkle. Don't be surprised if a wideout emerges as a high draft pick. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ragnow drafted high, although he's just a junior. He's that good.

I know I sound excited. That's because I am truly pumped. I see good things in the near future. The caution flag is a look at the schedule. There's nothing easy anywhere. But I like the fact that the Hogs get Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU and Florida in Fayetteville. It's another reason I think nine is a possibility.

Cole Hedlund needs to make a step up, too. The redshirt sophomore placekicker looked solid in the spring until a step back in the spring game. Punter Toby Baker will be among the SEC's best. Both need big years to get the Hogs to nine.

Don't write it down as my prediction just yet. I don't write that column until August. But I've got a hard lean to nine right now. It's written in pencil.