Commentary

Perception of Bielema, Malzahn different in year 4

Arkansas coach Bret Bielema, left, talks with Auburn coach Gus Malzahn prior to a game Saturday, Oct. 24, 2015, at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville.

I was sitting with Gus Malzahn in the lobby of the Sandestin Hilton when Bret Bielema walked by.

“Does this guy ever give you any trouble?” Malzahn quipped to the Arkansas head coach.

“All the time,” Bielema said as he stopped for some lighthearted conversation.

Knowing there’s a perception that these guys don’t like each other, I called for a picture and they played along. Looking at that snapshot reminded me how quickly things change.

Four years ago, Malzahn was happy to have his first college head coaching gig at Arkansas State and Bielema was on his way to a third consecutive Big Ten championship. Four years ago, a legit contingent of Arkansas fans would’ve done anything to see Malzahn coach the Hogs. Instead, they got John L. Smith and then Bielema, who had to be one of the most surprising hires anywhere in college football over the last decade.

Three years ago, Bielema went 0-for-the-SEC, losing nine straight to end the season while Malzahn led Auburn to an SEC championship and a runner-up finish against Florida State in the national title game. Razorback fans were divided. Some were upset Malzahn hadn’t been pursued by Arkansas. Others were in favor of Bielema and argued his resume at Wisconsin would, in time, be repeated at Arkansas.

Interestingly, over the last two years the Gus bus has been less vocal. The belief in Bielema has gone up as the Razorbacks have steadily improved, while Auburn has fallen on hard times.

Bielema’s 7-11 SEC record over the last two seasons is one win better than Malzahn’s 6-12, and while neither record is coach-of-the-year material, Arkansas’ 5-3 conference record turned some heads last season. Conversely, Auburn has lost nine of its last 11 SEC games.

While Malzahn still holds a better overall record over the last three seasons, Dave Bartoo of College Football Matrix says Bielema is the better coach. Bartoo, whose analytics are widely respected throughout college football, has a formula he uses to analyze a coach based on the talent he has and competition he faces. It’s called the coach effect and it judges how many extra wins or losses a coach is worth to his team.

Bartoo’s numbers say that Bielema is a plus-1 and Malzahn is a minus-2. That’s a three-game difference in favor of Bielema and, according to Bartoo, Malzahn had the worst numbers of any coach in the SEC last season, and has the biggest downtrend in the league.

What does all that mean? Maybe not much depending on what happens this year. Both coaches are going into a pivotal fourth season and recent history tells us year four is critical for head coaches in this league.

Of the last 15 head coaches hired in the SEC, only Steve Spurrier won fewer than eight games in his fourth year and kept his job. That’s not to say one of these guys will be fired, but in my opinion Bielema seems to be on much safer ground and Bartoo agrees.

“He had really positive (coach effect) numbers at Wisconsin and I think he’s doing a better job coaching now then he did with the Badgers,” Bartoo said.

“That’s where the opportunity for Arkansas comes in. I think he’s a better coach than (Kevin) Sumlin, Malzahn and (Hugh) Freeze, and his coaching could make the difference in those particular games which impacts where Arkansas falls in the division.”

If you’re a seasoned Razorback fan you know the Hogs are never going to win the recruiting rankings which means you have to find a way to win with what you can get, and it looks like Bielema is well on his way to doing that.