Jimmy Carter's All-SEC ballot, league predictions

Kentucky's De'Aaron Fox (0) shoots while defended by teammate Derek Willis during the team's Big Blue Madness on Friday, Oct. 14, 2016, in Lexington, Ky. (AP Photo/James Crisp)

— Arkansas was picked to finish fifth in the SEC’s preseason media poll, released Wednesday in conjunction with SEC Media Days.

Moses Kingsley was the conference's preseason Player of the Year and a first-team All-SEC selection.

I had a vote in the poll. Here is what my ballot looked like and the thought process behind my poll, All-SEC team and Player of the Year.

Jimmy Carter’s Preseason All-SEC Picks

— Bam Adebayo, Kentucky, F, 6-10, 250, Fr.

The 6-10, 250-pound freshman is going to be a force. Blessed with athleticism, a solid frame, a 7-2 wingspan, a great motor and good instincts — so, uh, basically the total package — Adebayo will be a defensive anchor and forceful finisher for the Wildcats. He’s projected as the No. 10 pick in the 2017 NBA Draft by Draft Express. His physical tools make his ceiling high.

— Moses Kingsley, Arkansas, F, 6-10, 230, Sr.

If Kingsley comes back having made half the improvement he did prior to his junior year, he has a great shot at winning Player of the Year honors. He should have more help, which should prevent him from wearing down or conserving energy like he did last season. While he’s off the NBA Draft radar of reputable scouting services, his physical profile will earn him looks if he has a big senior season. After averaging 15.9, 9.3 and 2.4 last year, a 16-11-3.5 season shouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility.

— KeVaughn Allen, Florida, G, 6-2, 183, So.

Allen makes the game look effortless on the offensive end. Expect a big jump in both efficiency and volume for his sophomore season. He should lead a good Florida team in scoring. He doesn’t have the skill to play point guard at the next level or the size and athleticism to leave school early as an NBA 2, so the rest of the SEC is likely looking at three more years of Mr. Allen, a potentially scary thought.

— J.J. Frazier, Georgia, G, 5-10, 155, Sr.

Frazier is a great college point guard, plain and simple. He can take over games, score from all three levels and get his teammates involved. He’s become a much more efficient player over the course of his first three years at Georgia. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he flirted with 20 points per game his final go-around.

— De'Aaron Fox, Kentucky, G, 6-3, 187, Fr.

This could’ve easily been fellow Wildcat freshman Malik Monk, but Fox will be the floor general on both ends of the court for the most talented team in the conference. His jumper is a work in progress, but he is lightning quick, can score or set the table and may be the best on-ball defender in the league as a freshman. He’ll be on his A-game every night, too, as he enters the season ranked as Draft Express No. 12 overall prospect but the No. 4 point guard in the deepest draft at the position in recent memory.

SEC Player of the Year: De'Aaron Fox, Kentucky

The Wildcats' trio of Fox, Monk and Adebayo may have cannibalized votes and paved the way for Kingsley to win the award, but if this is supposed to forecast the future I’ll go with Fox, who should wind up being the driving force behind a top-five team.

SEC Poll

1. Kentucky

The Wildcats simply reload ever year and this season is no different thanks to another star-filled, top-ranked recruiting class. Bentonville product Malik Monk’s mix of athleticism and scoring prowess would have made him the most-talented player on Arkansas’ roster, hands down. His shot selection can be questionable, but he’s incredibly gifted. John Calipari has already said he will likely lead the Wildcats in scoring.

But Monk will actually enter the season considered Kentucky’s third-best draft prospect, behind point guard De’Aaron Fox and center Bam Adebayo. Fox is an ultra-quick, shifty floor general who can score and make those around him better. Adebayo could be the most impactful big in the conference by the end of the season.

The Wildcats have star power and the supporting cast has talent. They have to be the heavy favorite to win Calipari’s fifth SEC title in seven years.

2. Florida

The Gators lose forward Dorian Finney-Smith, their top scorer and rebounder last season, but return their other four starters.

Sophomore guard KeVaughn Allen, a North Little Rock native, is a good bet to lead the Gators in scoring after showing flashes of being a go-to scorer as a freshman, including games of 32 and 27. He has one of the smoother offensive games in the conference and should feel comfortable being more assertive in year two. More on him in a bit.

Senior point guard Kasey Hill was up-and-down last year, but finished strong and is a capable playmaker. Canyon Berry, a 6-6 grad transfer from College of Charleston, averaged 19.3 points per game last year and will provide a scoring punch. The Gators feature a promising frontcourt, including 6-8 junior Devin Robinson, a breakout candidate and the team’s best pro prospect, a potential first-round pick in the 2017 NBA Draft.

Florida has depth and talent. Expect a return to the upper echelon of the conference in Mark White’s second season.

3. Texas A&M

The Aggies lost four starters from their Sweet 16 team, but they may challenge Kentucky for the best frontcourt in the SEC.

Sophomore 6-10 center Tyler Davis is a future pro, a talented big who will flourish in a more featured role this season. Fellow 6-10 center Tonny Trocha-Morelos fits well next to Davis or off the bench with his shooting range and skillset, while super-athletic 6-8 freshman Robert Williams will be a strong candidate to earn freshman All-SEC honors.

The backcourt is a bit of a question mark, but the Aggies may not experience as large a dropoff as some forecast. Lipscomb grad transfer J.C. Hampton will likely run the show after averaging 15.9 points a year ago, while returnees Admon Gilder and D.J. Hogg — former top-100 recruits — should be ready for more responsibility after playing key roles off the bench last year. Freshman Deshawn Corprew was a top-100 recruit, too.

The Aggies still have talent. Davis should emerge as one of the better players in the conference as part of one of the better frontcourt trios in the league.

4. Arkansas

I picked the Hogs fourth in early October, but would put them third today and could see a top-two finish if the roster gels.

Mike Anderson likes his team heading into year six, for good reason. Moses Kingsley and Dusty Hannahs are one of the best one-two punches in the conference and the duo should have a better supporting cast this season, starting with JUCO guards Jaylen Barford and Daryl Macon. Barford’s size and strength are pluses that should allow him to be one of the better point guards in the conference, while Macon’s shooting will help fill the void left by Anthlon Bell while providing far superior defense.

Dustin Thomas, a Colorado transfer, is key to a frontcourt that has more options than last year but a few questions. He has the skillset to fit next to Kingsley and the Hogs need him to be able to play 20-25 minutes a night. Freshman 6-5 guard C.J. Jones may be the best pro prospect on the team thanks to his combination of size, shooting and athletic ability. He could provide a scoring punch even with an experienced, deep backcourt.

Anything worse than a fourth-place finish and a trip to the NCAA Tournament would have to be considered a disappointment.

5. Georgia

Senior point guard J.J. Frazier is only 5-10, but is one of the most exciting players in the conference. He and junior power forward Yante Maten comprise a very good one-two punch for Mark Fox, one of the better Xs-and-Os coaches in the conference.

Frazier may need to better the 16.9 points he averaged last year thanks to the graduation of backcourt mates Charles Mann and Kenny Gaines. Maten is a bonafide inside-out threat coming off a 16.5-8.0-1.8 sophomore year.

Frazier and Maten will give the Bulldogs a chance in most conference games. How the rest of the roster performs will determine the team’s ceiling.

6. Vanderbilt

Bryce Drew inherits a team that returns three starters but lost its best two players — point guard Wade Baldwin and center Damian Jones — to the NBA Draft, where they were each selected in the first round. The Commodores underachieved in Kevin Stallings’ last year and expectations won’t be as high for Drew’s first go-around in Nashville.

The Commodores still have some intriguing pieces, starting with 7-1 Luke Kornet, a skilled big who doubles as a rim protector and will take on a larger role in the post-Jones frontcourt. Most of the roster is still comprised of Stallings holdovers, which means the Commodores still have have plenty of shooters. Matthew Fisher-Davis is one of the only players in the league who could top Dusty Hannahs in a shootout. Watch for sophomore Camron Justice. He’s a knockdown shooter and potential breakout candidate.

Alas, frontcourt depth is a substantial question mark for the Commodores and tracking how the roster meshes with Drew will be interesting.

7. Alabama

Replacing the production of graduated guard Retin Obasohan (17.6 ppg) is one of the big question marks facing Anthony Grant as he enters his second season in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide likely don’t have a single player capable of matching Obasohan’s output as a lead guard and will lean on gifted 6-5 redshirt freshman point guard Dazon Ingram (season-ending foot injury last year), versatile 6-7 Memphis transfer Nick King and JUCO transfer Ar’mond Davis, a quality shooter, to lead the backcourt.

Jimmie Taylor and Donta Hall have the potential to be one of the better frontcourt defensive tandems in the SEC. The Crimson Tide were decent on that end of the court and played at the slowest pace in the conference last season, but too often didn’t have the offensive firepower to close games. Johnson’s coaching acumen should become more apparent with improving talent, but the Crimson Tide may be mired in the middle of the pack for at least another year.

8. South Carolina

Another pick I kinda wish I could re-do. I picked the Gamecocks eighth in early October when I submitted my ballot. If I could do it again, I’d bump them up at least to No. 7.

Frank Martin is one of the better coaches in the SEC and will get the most out of his team. He’ll have one of the top backcourts in the conference to work with, a unit led by Sindarius Thornwell, P.J. Dozier and Duane Notice, who combined to average 30.9 points, 10.2 rebounds and 8.2 assists last year. Thornwell provides toughness, versatility and defense. Dozier is a selfless table-setter who makes the rest of the team better. Notice is a skilled combo guard and a dangerous shooter.

That trio will win some ballgames for South Carolina, but the rest of the lineup may not be good enough to keep it near the top of the standings for a second straight year.

9. Auburn

I am buying tons of stock in Auburn basketball. Bruce Pearl is slowly but surely building a power on the plains, but the Tigers may be a year away from making a sizable jump in the SEC hierarchy.

Even still, the pieces are coming together. Five star freshman Mustapha Heron is a talented scorer who doesn’t have many weaknesses on that side of the ball and projects as a draft pick down the line. Danjel Purifoy, a 6-7 redshirt freshman ruled ineligible last year, is another likely impact player who has a very good skillset for his size. Guard Bryce Brown and wing TJ Lang are good shooters. Combo guard T.J. Dunans is an adept penetrator returning from a patella injury, while 5-10 freshman Jared Harper is a skilled distributor who can also get his own shot. Those six are as promising a collection of guards and wings as Auburn has had in years.

The frontcourt lacks size and is the definite weak spot on the roster, which will likely force Purifoy, a combo forward, to spend more time at the 4. Bethune Cookman grad transfer LaRon Smith is a bit undersized at 6-8 but was one of the nation’s leading shot blockers a year ago, while four star freshman Anfernee McLemore, 6-7, will need to play a big role from the jump.

Pearl is addressing those issues. His 2017 recruiting class is ranked No. 2 in the nation and features two frontcourt players out of three commits, headlined by 6-9 center Austin Wiley, the No. 17 player in the nation. Pearl is attracting major talent and has proven he knows how to use it. If the frontcourt surprises, the Tigers could finish higher. Next season, they should roll out one of the most talented rosters in the league.

10. Ole Miss

Andy Kennedy just finds a way to keep winning 20 games, which is good enough at a program like Ole Miss to make him the longest-tenured coach in the conference now that Stallings is no longer at Vandy.

If he hits the 20-win mark again this year, a statue may be in the works. The Rebels will have to replace graduated Stefan Moody, whose 23.6 ppg led the SEC last year, along with three other starters.

Sebastian Saiz is a double-double machine who impacts games with a freakish 7-6 wingspan and will have a shot at earning all-SEC honors this year. Aside from him, the Rebels are relying on transfers and unproven underclassmen.

11. Mississippi State

Ben Howland has a million (seven) freshmen who combined to comprise ESPN’s No. 4 2016 recruiting class. The Bulldogs should finish higher, right? Maybe. But maybe not.

The class features talent, to be sure, with six four stars and four ESPN top-100 recruits. Talent hasn’t been the issue for Howland teams dating back to his time at UCLA. Cultivating said talent has been a problem that spelled the end of his UCLA tenure and extending into last season with the failed Malik-Newman-in-Starkville show.

Given recent past performance, a wait-and-see approach for Howland, his stodgy offense and the latest batch of shiny recruits might be best taken.

The signing haul doesn’t include a point guard. Those duties will fall to senior Little Rock native I.J. Ready, who played better down the stretch last year after initially struggling.

Maybe the Bulldogs finish a few spots higher. The gap between No. 2 and No. 4 in the SEC doesn’t appear very wide. Who knows how teams 5 through 11 finish. I’m not bullish on the Bulldogs.

12. Tennessee

The Volunteers have to replace their two leading scorers from a 15-19 team, most notably guard Kevin Punter, who averaged 22.2 a year ago. Yikes, Rick Barnes.

Senior guard Robert Hubbs III (10.6 ppg last year) is a talented former five star, but has battled knee issues most of his career. He’ll need to stay healthy and become a go-to scorer if the Volunteers have a chance to finish higher. No one else on the roster has done much of substance to date and Barnes’ first full recruiting class didn’t crack any of the major services top 40s. The rebuild in Knoxville could take a while.

13. LSU

Gone is Ben Simmons. So is Keith Hornsby. And Tim Quarterman. But the Tigers still have coach Johnny Jones. Is that cause for celebration or groaning in Baton Rouge?

LSU does bring back talented sophomore Antonio Blakely, a likely future draft pick who played his best basketball late in his freshman season. He could finish among the SEC’s top five scorers this year. He and 6-9 junior Craig Victor should be a solid one-two punch. Victor could be a 13-7 type player.

Elsewhere, the roster is iffy. In retrospect, the Blakely-Victor combination should’ve caused me to bump the Tigers up at least a spot, but I’m not high on the rest of their roster at all.

14. Missouri

The outlook heading into year three under Kim Anderson doesn’t look markedly different than the first two, unfortunately for the Tiger faithful.

The Tigers have to replace three starters from a 10-21 season that included a 3-15 SEC mark. Five of Missouri’s top 11 scorers transferred. None of Anderson’s three class of 2016 signees were ranked among the top 200 players in the nation. The road to rebuilding has been brutal while working through the cloud of NCAA smoke left by Frank Haith. Van Buren native Mitchell Smith, a long, 6-10 freshman will be interesting to track. He is raw and could be more aggressive but his length, skill and athletic could have potentially made him an interesting fit in Mike Anderson’s system. He will likely be tossed in the fire as a freshman for a bad Tigers team.