FAYETTEVILLE — Danny Sheridan doesn't bet. He doesn't take bets. But he can tell you how to win money gambling.
The constant refrain before and after his speech for the Northwest Arkansas Touchdown Club, what does he look for to make picks for USA Today?
“Take the underdog,” Sheridan said. “I pick underdogs.”
Sheridan doesn't take all underdogs. In fact, he picks only a few games a week. He'll search for three to six college games, maybe one or two more in the NFL. His picks in those games are almost always going to be underdogs.
The betting lines guru from Mobile, Ala, provided a glimpse of what takes place in the betting world.
“First, only one out of 1,000 makes money betting on football,” he said. “And eight out of 10 of those 1,000 are picking the favorite. Betting on the favorite is insanity.”
Sheridan has some strong beliefs as he makes his pick against the spread, something he does extremely well.
“I'm not as good as I thought I was when I got started, but I can pick against the spread,” he said. “One thing I tell you, I don't bet on sports. When I pick what I want to happen, I'm wrong.”
Sheridan said most bettors “are not objective. By not betting, I'm objective. I will tell you this, if I could bet and make a living do it, I would. I can't."
Sheridan provided insight on why Arkansas has been as much as a 10-point underdog in its game against Auburn this week.
“It's an indication of public perception,” he said. “It's what is needed to produce bets by the public. It started at around 8 ½ on Sunday, but quickly went to 10. It's going to fall back to around 8 or 9 points.
“I can tell you what happened Sunday. There is a professional group that made a huge bet on Auburn on Sunday and that made the number go to 10. As the week has gone along, that number has produced money on Arkansas and the line will go down.”
Sheridan thinks it's a tough spot for Arkansas. He believes Auburn is much better than last year, with a defensive line that is comparable to Alabama's tough defensive line that shut down the Razorbacks two weeks ago.
“I look at a lot of things when I make my picks,” he said. “I look at defense. Auburn is good there. Arkansas is allowing on average 40 points against three SEC teams and TCU. That's a lot.
“I also think this is a game Auburn has pointed to after losing last year. That's a factor in what I look at, and what kind of emotional effort was expended the week before. Auburn was off and Arkansas used a lot of energy in beating Ole Miss.”
Sheridan has several theories that figure into his picks, but one of the biggest is emotion.
“I think Arkansas has a very good coach,” he said. “I bet if you ask him a lot of what goes into winning football game is mental. I think it's as much as 90 percent.
“I think the biggest thing a coach does is get his players to care about the game. I think it's tougher if you have used up a lot the week before. Arkansas did that.”
Sheridan thinks a team can dip into the emotional well for extra effort about four times per season.
“That's it, four times,” he said. “You just can't be at your peak every week. So that's what I look at as much as anything. Does a team care?”
The fact that the spread is hovering on double digits can impact the game.
“I do think a coach tells a team if they are the underdog or not,” he said. “I know some who for sure do that. I believe most are going to tell their team if no one thinks they can win. They use being an underdog to their advantage. I believe (Bielema) told his players last week they were underdogs coming down the ramp.”
One thing is for sure: Sheridan thinks both coaches – Arkansas' Bret Bielema and Auburn's Gus Malzahn – care about this week.
“That's a big part of it to me,” he said. “They don't like each other. I don't think either is sending the other a Christmas card. I think Gus remembers getting beat last year in four overtimes. Auburn was spinning into a tailspin, but that helped the tailspin.
“You may not understand this, but the best chance for Arkansas to beat Auburn was to lose to Ole Miss. I do believe that Arkansas is walking into a hornet's nest. Auburn is better than last year.”
However, Sheridan would not be stunned if Arkansas won. Sheridan said he's from an area that is big on betting college football.
“It's illegal except in Las Vegas,” he said. “We all know that. But I can tell you that when I was going to school in Tuscaloosa, it was probably easier to find someone to take your bet than it was to buy a milkshake.”
Sheridan has known about illegal gambling since he was 14.
“I befriended a bookie,” he said. “He taught me the trade.”
It's clear Sheridan is an Alabama fan. He said “we” when talking about the Crimson Tide. He knows that program well. He's high on Nick Saban.
“The SEC West is the best football in the country,” he said. “The saying is that it's like a weak division in the NFL. I don't know about that, but it's good.
“Saban is the best. He thinks football 24/7, all year. I think he celebrated the last national championship for about 10 or 12 minutes before he started chewing people out to get ready for the next year.”
Sheridan thought LSU would be the toughest challenge for Alabama this season.
“I thought they were hurt less by the NFL draft,” he said. “They had almost everyone back and a couple were coming back from work release. They have more pro athletes than Alabama, but the difference is quarterback.
“I will say that if something happens to Jalen Hurts, Alabama is a different team. They fall back a lot, maybe fifth best in the West.”
Alabama might be better on defense than expected. Sheridan likes the change in defensive coordinators. He said Kirby Smart was too conservative, not a problem with Jeremy Pruitt.
“Smart liked to rush four, drop into coverage,” he said. “Pruitt is bringing five almost every play. They are much more aggressive and I think that makes them tougher to beat and creates more turnovers.”
If Hurts stays healthy, Alabama will be favored the rest of the way, except maybe in the playoffs against Ohio State.
“That looks like a pick 'em game to me,” Sheridan said of a potential Alabama-Ohio State matchup. “That's the only team I see that looks like Alabama.”
Playing in the SEC is great preparation for the playoffs.
“It's the best league in college football,” Sheridan said. “It's proven. I tell you that an SEC team – Alabama or Auburn – have played for six of the last eight national championships. Having a team in the playoff means you are playing for the title.
“The SEC was 8-2 in bowls last year. That's the record. The previous record was seven wins and the SEC held it.”
But there is a big difference between the SEC West and the East.
“In the last two and a half seasons, the West has gone 24-6 against the East,” Sheridan said. “The West is 7-0 this year. It's no surprise. You look at the West, the coach who finishes last is going to be making $4 million.”
Sheridan recalled a sweet moment in the SEC West race last year - Arkansas' overtime victory over Ole Miss, a result that gave Alabama the title and kept alive national championship hopes.
“It was that fourth-and-25 play,” Sheridan said. “They throw a pass to the tight end. At that particular point, it looked like Arkansas was going to cover. I had picked Arkansas. OK, they throw a pass to the tight end, he's going to be tackled and they cover. Just tackle him.
“Then, he turns and it's clear he's going to lateral. It was like he was throwing a grenade. Things starting going through my mind. Someone is going to pick this up and it might be Ole Miss and they might run for a touchdown and I'm going to lose by 14.”
The cover would be gone. Little did he imagine that the Hogs would convert the first down and eventually win the game.
“Pretty big play,” he said. “All of us in Alabama thought it was pretty big. I don't know if the (playoff) committee would have picked Ole Miss with two losses. But I don't really know because I think they just make it up as they go.”
Sheridan dropped lots of treats in his 30 minutes on the stage. He delighted in telling the crowd that Texas “may be the fourth best team in Texas, slightly better than SMU.”
Sheridan also said rumors that Texas might have been looking to join the SEC a few years ago were never true.
“Do you think Texas wants any part of the SEC?” he said. “I don't think so.”
There may or may not have been a betting line about Texas joining the SEC. Danny Sheridan doesn't bet, but he might have taken some of that action. That was too much of a sure thing.