When predicting the SEC West race the past decade, picking the top spot has been easy.
Most pencil in Alabama. After all, the Crimson Tide has become a perennial power under Coach Nick Saban, winning four national championships since 2009.
The big question each year is what team will finish second in the division and is there any way that team could dethrone the Crimson Tide? Ole Miss and LSU were early frontrunners with some media members giving both schools a decent chance to steal the Western Division crown form a Tide team which lost several key contributors from last season, including Heisman Trophy-winning running back Derrick Henry.
Auburn also received some dark horse votes to push their bitter in-state rival out of the top spot.
As is often the case, things have changed quickly since the preseason. As we gear up for Week 4, it is Arkansas and Texas A&M that have risen to the top of the division. The old Southwest Conference foes lock horns in the SEC opener for Arkansas, which is undefeated and ranked No. 17. The Aggies are also 3-0 and ranked No. 10.
With an 8 p.m. start on ESPN at massive AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, the Southwest Classic - as it has been dubbed - will be one of the most anticipated games Saturday. All eyes in college football will be watching, including those stationed in Tuscaloosa, Ala.
After Ole Miss choked away big leads to Florida State (22) in the opener and then to Alabama (21) last week, it is no longer considered a threat, although mathematically the Rebels still have a chance to win the West.
LSU looked weak in a season-opening loss to Wisconsin at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, but the Tigers SEC record is unblemished after a win against Mississippi State. They are still well in the hunt, but need quick improvement at quarterback to stay there.
Auburn may soon be fighting to stay bowl-eligible after losing to Clemson and Texas A&M at home. Auburn hosts LSU this week.
So that brings us to the Hogs and Aggies - teams that have surpassed expectations so far. Texas A&M won a hard-fought overtime battle against then-No. 16-ranked UCLA in the opener. It then cruised past FCS Prairie View A&M 67-0 in Week 2 and escaped 29-16 at Auburn in the SEC opener a week ago.
Former Oklahoma quarterback Trevor Knight has fit in nicely for the Aggies, as they have not had trouble scoring points. The athletic defense has also been stingy. With a veteran coach in Kevin Sumlin, who has won in Tuscaloosa, the Aggies and their No. 10 rating has commanded respect inside and outside the SEC.
If they get past Arkansas, that would be another signature win to the resume with a tough home game against Tennessee looming on Oct. 8 and a road date with the Crimson Tide a week later. That is a tough road.
Still, A&M has the mettle to stay undefeated heading into that showdown.
An Arkansas win Saturday, should be more concerning for Tide fans. The Hogs will roll over FCS lightweight Alcorn State next week at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock and welcome Alabama to Fayetteville on Oct. 8. A matchup with two undefeated teams would surely be picked for the 2:30 p.m. CBS game and ESPN’s College GameDay would most likely make an appearance.
The atmosphere would be electric, and while Arkansas wouldn’t be favored, it would have a favorable shot at pulling a mild upset. After three slow starts under Bret Bielema, every Hog fan would like to see how Arkansas would respond owning an undefeated record heading into that matchup.
Razorbacks fans believe after hanging on to beat Louisiana Tech and an improbable double-overtime win against TCU. They know that previous teams would have probably lost both of those first two games and not dominated Texas State like they did last week.
All signs of another slow start have disappeared. This looks like a new team with a newcomer at quarterback, Austin Allen, who plays like a seasoned veteran with an offensive line who seemed to be suspect which has gelled quickly. A defense which was maligned in 2015 has come alive this year and has played well.
However, beating A&M won’t be easy. Sumlin has Bielema’s number after winning all three meetings, including the past two in overtime. He is a solid coach who has built a good program. The early success has the Aggies confident as they begin a tough stretch.
Expect this game to go down to the wire - again. And expect whoever wins at Jerry World to give Alabama a run for its money in securing the SEC West.