FAYETTEVILLE — It's a simple tenant that Bret Bielema continues to give to the Arkansas football team. It's been there all four years of his tenure as head coach.
He repeats each week: “You earn everything.”
That explains the losses the last two years against Texas A&M at Arlington, Texas, when the Hogs played wonderful football for three quarters only to fall in overtime when the Aggies produced huge plays in the passing game to come from behind.
Bielema's explanation: the Hogs earned defeat. Yes, they did. The mistakes they made in the secondary were major. Getting beat over the top is a cardinal sin for any defense.
So that's where I'll start with this week's top 10 keys to victory. It's as simple as stating, “you earn everything.”
Texas A&M receivers Christian Kirk, Josh Reynolds, Ricky Seals-Jones and Speedy Noils can get behind most defensive backs. Some are faster than others and some are bigger than others. But what they have as a combination might make them the best group of wideouts in the SEC.
The thing that some don't get is that No. 17 Arkansas might be close in wideout talent with Keon Hatcher, Drew Morgan, Jared Cornelius and Dominique Reed. An NFL scout might pick some from each side. There is a lot to like with what the Hogs put on the field, too.
The focus here is how to stop the No. 10 Aggies, but know that they are going to have to figure out how to cover the Hogs, too.
The good news is that I think the Hogs are much better against deep passing teams – and the slant – than they were at this time last year. Secondary coach Paul Rhoads has improved the back end of the defense.
There is one single development that will pay dividends against the Aggies. While everyone has centered their worries about the cornerbacks where Britto Tutt and Kevin Richardson have been lost for the season because of injury, it's clear that the depth in the back end has improved. There are enough corners at this point because of the return of DJ Dean.
The safety play has improved. Josh Liddell and Santos Ramirez are solid players, much different as far as proper alignment. The big development has been the arrival of De'Andre Coley as a competent sub both at free and strong safety. He's like another starter.
“Coley is big in our game plan,” Liddell said. “He can relieve me or Santos. We can get some rest and be fresh in the fourth quarter.”
That was not the case the last two seasons and perhaps the reason for failures at the end against the Aggies. The Hogs had barely enough safeties to put two on the field. Fatigue produces more mental errors than physical mistakes.
Coley was injured and unable to play at TCU when the Hogs seemed to wear down in the fourth quarter. He's full speed now, as are the other regulars in the secondary. Dean should be 100 percent physically after battling back from a hamstring injury in August.
But the best pass defense is a good rush. The Hogs have that. Robb Smith has worked hard to add pieces to the rush package since last season. They have McTelvin “Sosa” Agim, Randy Ramsey and Austin Capps in the two-deep who all provide assets in the rush.
Don't underestimate the value of Capps against the Aggies this week. He's a massive nose tackle, but not the fastest of the defensive linemen. He has speed, but it's not a quick twitch. What he does have is unbelievable strength for a freshman. He has strong, quick hands that provide great help in controlling the center.
Texas A&M has a great young player at center in redshirt freshman Erik McCoy (6-4, 205 pounds). He's been impressive in his last two games, especially last week at Auburn. Athletic and strong, he's been a pleasant surprise for the Aggies as they replace four starters up front.
The Hogs will counter with a two-man rotation of Taiwan Johnson, a cagy senior, and Capps. It's a nice change of pace. Johnson plays low to the ground with great hand quickness and a twist to his pass rush. Capps has a mauling bull rush with great power.
The Aggies like to brag about their ends, Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall. The Hogs are pretty good there, too. Senior Detrich Wise was the SEC's best sack man in league games last year. They may not have a second end as good as the Aggies, but they do appear to be deeper with Tevin Beanum, Karl Roesler, JaMichael Winston and Ramsey. I really like the defensive tackle slot, the 3-technique or weakside tackle, with Jeremiah Ledbetter, Agim and T.J. Smith.
Both offensive lines have had to be rebuilt. The Aggies lost more heavily than Arkansas. I think the Hogs are coming together up front as Frank Ragnow makes the move back to right guard with the center split between Jake Raulerson and Zach Rogers, and right tackle split between Brian Wallace and Colton Jackson.
It's going to be up to that front to make it hard for Texas A&M quarterback Trevor Knight to squeeze through on called quarterback runs and scrambles. Linebackers Brooks Ellis and Dre Greenlaw will have their hands full chasing the running backs. It's those mad dashes by Knight that can leave the front outnumbered.
I think it's going to be less of a factor in this game than at TCU when the Hogs were befuddled with the empty backfield sets in the fourth quarter. That's how Kenny Hill got free. The Hogs have worked hard on that formation and other designed quarterback running plays over the last two weeks and should be better able to contain Knight.
“He's a great player,” Rhoads said. “I played against him twice at Iowa State. I knew it was a coup for Kevin Sumlin when he got Trevor.”
It was a sizable pickup. Still, I think I like Austin Allen over Knight. Just in three games under center at Arkansas, I've come to appreciate all of the little things Dan Enos gives his quarterbacks and the way Allen executes them.
The bootlegs, naked quarterback plays and waggles with a different twist in moving protection make this Arkansas offense tough on a John Chavis defense. The A&M defensive coordinator has expressed appreciation for the mauling style of the UA front this week.
Arkansas ran the ball at these same two Aggie ends last year. Chavis does the same thing with his ends at Texas A&M that he did at Tennessee and at LSU. They charge up the field. They are good, but they can't do everything if they charge up the field. You use that aggressiveness to your advantage. The soft spot in the Aggies defense is just inside those ends. You have to block the tackles and the inside linebackers and that's where Texas A&M is a little better.
Bootlegs are tough for the ends. You can do it two ways. You can block them or let them try to take themselves out of the play when they follow the running back fake. I don't think you can do the same thing all the time. You vary it. But I think there are plays open against Texas A&M. You have to be smart in how you do it. You also can max protect as Arkansas did some against TCU in the second half.
I trust Enos to have a good plan. He's had good plans against other teams with good ends. They play against good ends in practice. Wise is in the same category as Garrett. Some like Wise better because of better play against the run.
This is not like the old days of the Southwest Conference when you only saw a good set of defensive linemen once a year against Texas. You see them every week in the SEC. Missouri had good ends. So did Mississippi State. So did LSU. So did Alabama. Even TCU did two weeks ago.
The question remains, have the Aggies gotten more physical? Forever the way Sumlin's teams have played defense has been labeled soft. Has that changed finally as Chavis has fit fine recruits into his system and worked them over two spring practices? It has in some ways. But I think that's still the advantage for Arkansas, Bielema's team will be more physical.
We'll stop here and get to the exact keys to victory for the Hogs. Just as a heads up, that 8 p.m. kickoff time is wrong. ESPN now says that the game won't begin until 8:15 p.m., giving fans of both teams a better chance to see the start after the Auburn-LSU game finishes.
Perhaps one of the keys is to figure out which team has more night owls.
1. Physicality
It's SEC play and there is no more physical place to play football than the SEC. Speed is king in the SEC, but defensive line play is what sets the league apart from the rest of the college football world. Both teams have fine defensive lines and solid trench men on offense. The team that wins the hitting match will probably be standing tall at the end of the game. Depth on the front is important, especially if it's an overtime affair for the third straight season. I think Arkansas has an edge in this important area, the reason I think it will win. It is players like Brooks Ellis and Dan Skipper that allow Arkansas to win the physicality department. These two seniors are the heart and soul of this team and provide great leadership. They are big reasons I think the Hogs will play well against the Aggies.
2. Quarterback Play
Austin Allen is gaining strength as perhaps the surprise quarterback in the SEC. He's already done it twice in the fourth quarter to lift the Hogs. Trevor Knight is a bit of a surprise at A&M, too. Knight is the Oklahoma transfer with the spectacular Sugar Bowl performance against Alabama a few seasons ago. Allen has completed 67 percent of his passes, Knight just 52. That could be a big difference in the game. Knight has been sacked only once and the Hogs have to change that number early in the game and it could be the difference.
3. Protection
This goes with QB play. Knight has been elusive, helping what probably is average protection by a new Aggie O-line. Allen has been sacked six times. Can the Hogs keep Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall off of him enough for the passing game to operate? Will tight ends Jeremy Sprinkle and Austin Cantrell have to spend more time blocking defensive ends than running those tough to defend bootleg routes? Most assume tackles Skipper along with Brian Wallace and Colton Jackson are going to need help against the Aggies end rushers. There has to be improvement here for Allen to be effective.
4. Trend
I'm interested to see if Arkansas is more like the team that struggled to put away the Aggies the last two seasons, or the team that has been superb the last 10 games. Arkansas has three straight victories over top 25 teams. The Hogs beat No. 15 TCU, No. 19 Ole Miss and No. 9 LSU. The Aggies are No. 10. In that 10-game stretch the Hogs have out-gained opponents on the ground, 2,013 to 1,168. There have been four games of 200 on the ground and 200 in the air. Also, in that stretch, the Hogs have converted 12 of 15 fourth downs and hold a 56-28 edge in points off turnovers. If those trends continue, the Hogs will win.
5. Special Teams
It's just not been special of late for Arkansas in the kicking game. The kickoff coverage and blocking has to improve. The Hogs have a great player in punter Toby Baker. Kickoff man Connor Limpert is slowly gaining steam. He's got the leg to put it in the end zone, but when he doesn't the Hogs have not covered well. There is a question to whether Jared Cornelius (back) is healthy enough to return punts. Christian Kirk, the A&M sprint man, is a deadly return specialist. The Hogs have to improve to keep this area from hurting them against the Aggies.
6. Clean Machine
Penalties have been killer against the Aggies the last two seasons. Everyone recalls the tripping call that prevented the game from becoming a rout two years ago. The Hogs have to avoid shooting themselves in the foot. They've been alright as far as penalties to start the season. A&M has been called for slightly more penalties so far this season. Both lines will be hard pressed in protection. How will holding penalties be called? Arkansas is second in the SEC in fewest penalties; the Aggies are eighth.
7. Long Plays
The Hogs have not hit many big plays in the running game and they have not gone deep much. Can Rawleigh Williams break a tackle and take a run to the house? That's not happened yet this season, but it might this week. I also expect freshman Devwah Whaley to be a factor this week after a more lengthy set of plays last week against Texas State. Williams made a living in high school with big work loads, but that might not be the way to go against an SEC team. He's going to need some help. It could come from Dominique Reed on end arounds, sweeps and perhaps a deep pass. Reed seems to do best in SEC play. He was not much of a factor early last year, but blossomed in SEC games. Look for Reed to break out this week.
8. Run at the Ends
Texas A&M has a solid running game, with quickness and power in the backfield. The Aggies like outside and off tackle runs, with plays designed to take away pass rush tendencies buy the defensive ends. Just as Arkansas might run right at A&M ends Garrett and Hall, the Aggies will probably run right at UA ends Wise and Tevin Beanum. Which side holds up best? I think this will be the surprise of the game. I think it will be Arkansas because of its depth.
9. Time of Possession
Bielema wants to win the time of possession battle. It might not be as important to the Aggies with what they think are quick strike abilities. But the Hogs want to leave the Aggie offense on the sideline for the bulk of the night. Can they convert on third down? The Hogs rank 13th nationally in time of possession. The Aggies are 85th. These are numbers Bielema likes.
10. Intangibles
This is my favorite category. It covers everything. The Aggies are favored by a margin of around one touchdown, much like TCU. Crowd noise could be a factor, as it was at TCU when Big 12 rules allow student sections to be placed behind the visitor's bench. That is not the case in this game where each team is in front of their fans. But, the Aggies are on a roll, ranked 10th. They will have at least half of the stadium, an indoor facility that holds in crowd noise. But I always think the intangibles favor the Hogs in games against the Aggies. The Aggies have been known to screw things up when they are going well. It seemed they were headed for greatness a few years ago during the Johnny Manziel era. They enlarged their stadium and recruited some of the nation's best players, only to slide in the SEC West. It backs up my point that the Aggies are capable of self-destructing. You know you have them when coaches walk onto the field at AT&T Stadium and want to toss something in the air to determine wind direction. That's the kind of intangibles that point to Arkansas in this game.