Market watch: Who’s trending up, down for Hog hoops

Daryl Macon (4) of Arkansas takes a shot over Khy Kabellis of North Dakota State Tuesday, Dec. 20, 2016, during the second half of play in Bud Walton Arena.

Arkansas finished the 2016 portion of its season with an 11-2 record and an 0-1 start in SEC play thanks to an 81-72 loss to No. 25 Florida on Thursday.

Here is a look at how each of the Razorback players have performed so far this year, whether they’re trending up or down based on how they’ve met expectations and either been better or worse than past performance.

STOCK RISING

Daryl Macon (13.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.0 turnovers, 1.6 steals)

Macon has exceeded expectations so far in his first two months of playing Division I basketball and has been the team’s best offensive player recently, leading the Razorbacks in scoring (19.3 per) in each of the last four games.

Macon’s plus-29.7 net rating is third-best on the team and has ballooned to plus-44.6 the last five games. He’s managed to be a premier scorer while also being the Razorbacks’ most efficient offensive player among regular rotation players, with a 65.5 true shooting percentage (TS%) and 59.2 effective field goal percentage (eFG%). He’s shooting nearly 59 percent on 2-pointers, hitting nearly 40 percent of his 3-pointers and is better than 90 percent from the line.

He also plays with swagger, an unquantifiable trait but one that’s apparent when watching him hoist 24-footers off the dribble or break down defenders to set up creative scooping shots around the rim.

There is absolutely room for debate about whether Mike Anderson’s decision to shake up the starting lineup two games ago was right, but Macon playing as the nominal point guard in the new-look starting group isn’t an issue. He has a team-best 20.6 assist percentage and has shown the ability to generate looks for his teammates. As he continues to grow more comfortable, he should be able to strike an optimum balance between getting his own and looking for others. For now, he’s emerging as a go-to scorer who can flat get buckets.

Anton Beard (9.1 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.1 turnovers, 1.0 steals)

It’s high time everyone — media and fans — stop proclaiming Beard has returned to his freshman form. No, he’s been better than that player in just about every way and many of Arkansas’ most effective lineups include the junior.

He’s shooting 42.7 percent from the floor and canning nearly 37 percent of his 3-pointers. His 19.6 assist percentage is second on the team to Macon and Arkansas’ offense averages 123.5 points per 100 possessions while he’s on the floor. Against Top 100 RPI opponents, that offensive rating skyrockets to an absurd 140.1. He doesn’t turn the ball over and is the best, most consistent setup artist on the team. The Razorbacks have plenty of scoring guards and Beard is one of them. But he has also been the best (and only, at times) player on the roster at penetrating and either kicking to an open shooter or dishing to a big. On a team that at times falls into playing one-on-one ball, Beard is a calming force who makes the defense work and makes the right play.

He’s averaging 20.5 minutes per game and hasn’t played more than 24 this year, making him the only one of the five main guards whose season-high isn’t at least 27. Anderson may need to play him in the 25-28 range against quality competition moving forward.

Arlando Cook (3.8 points, 2.1 rebounds)

The 6-8 junior forward’s numbers won’t wow anyone. He’s averaging just 13.1 minutes per game and only making 45 percent of his shots. His 8.6 rebound rate is at least two percentage points lower than every other big in the rotation.

But Arkansas has been better with him on the floor of late. He had one of the worst net ratings on the team entering December, but is a plus-39.3 in the last five games. He’s performed well in bench groups with Trey Thompson and has acquitted himself nicely alongside Moses Kingsley. Anderson closed with him against Texas and he scored six points in the final five minutes of the neutral-site win. He hit all four of his free throws late in that game and has knocked down 15 of his 17 so far this year, a pleasant surprise.

His line in the box score will rarely stand out, but he hustles his butt off, whether pressuring opposing ballhandlers fullcourt or going for loose balls. It’s an invaluable characteristic he even showed way back in the summer sprinting through during drills where other teammates didn’t always full exert themselves. The blue-collar attitude was always his ticket to more playing time. He still fires up too many mid-range jump shots, but has, for the most part, played within himself.

Including the Texas game, he’s played three more minutes (66) than starting 4 Dustin Thomas. For good reason — Thomas has a better, more well-rounded skill set Cook has been more effective and consistent lately.

C.J. Jones (4.8 points, 1.1 rebounds)

The best NBA prospect on the team is up to four DNP-CDs after Anderson opted against using him in the SEC opener against Florida. The reasons why his playing time is a constant question mark are obvious: more experienced guards in front of him, questionable defensive awareness. But Arkansas’ offense has been dynamite with Jones on the floor.

The Hogs average 140.4 points per 100 possessions when the bouncy 6-5 shooter is on the floor. That number is a bit noisy given that he’s only played 98 minutes, but it’s easy to see what he brings to the table. He can elevate and get his shot against anyone and has hit 10 of 18 3-pointers. That’s obviously unsustainable, but he has a smooth, natural shot and the look of a player who could shoot around 40 percent from 3. If anything, he’s maybe been too passive with his shot selection. Scoring is the one plus skill he brings to the table at this point in his career, so there should be no hesitation when he gets a sliver of space in his short stints on the court.

For the concerns about his defense (which are valid), the Hogs are giving up just 99.2 points per 100 when he’s on the floor. Again, noisy, but he’s played mostly against less-skilled backups and has spent the bulk of his minutes in lineups with veterans like Beard and Trey Thompson and a player like Cook that can mask some of his weaknesses.

Anderson didn’t play him against Texas or Florida. He still has his freshman moments and is far from his ceiling, but is an offensive weapon seemingly worth deploying on an every night basis at least for a few minutes in the first half.

HOLDING STEADY

Manny Watkins (5.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.5 turnovers)

The promise of an improved 3-point shot that Watkins wouldn’t hesitate to use in games turned out to be preseason talk. He hasn’t attempted a 3 yet. But the same old glaring lack of an outside shot hasn’t kept Watkins from impacting the game by doing Manny things.

His averages are modest, as usual, but his work as a versatile defensive stopper and his ability to make the right play on offense can’t be undersold. His 94.6 defensive rating is tops on the team among guards and tied for third overall, behind only Moses Kingsley and Thompson. His sturdy 6-4 frame gives him a chance against bigger wings and makes him the key to unlocking Arkansas’ small-ball looks — he’s been a near constant as the nominal 4 in those lineups. His guile and want-to on the defensive end are apparent.

While his inability to hit an outside shot isn’t ideal, Arkansas is averaging 128.7 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor overall and a solid 119.1 against RPI Top 100 opponents. Both are better than the team’s 113.7 offensive rating. He has ability as a ballhandler and a playmaker, especially in transition or semi-transition, evidenced by his 17.1 assist percentage, fourth-best on the team behind Macon, Beard and Jaylen Barford.

His game isn’t sexy and it is a bit disappointing that he never developed a semblance of an outside shot (he is, at least, shooting free throws better). The small-ball lineups would be much scarier if he passed as a perimeter threat. But he has an undeniably positive impact. He plays with smarts, defends like crazy, hits his floaters, makes heady passes, rebounds like a forward and more. He just ticks a lot of boxes. If you can’t appreciate his game because you’re hung up on his shot, that’s a shame. You’re missing out on a great role player.

Would he be averaging 21.7 minutes on an elite team? No. But this isn’t an elite team and what he brings to the table is extremely valuable given the makeup of the roster.

Trey Thompson (2.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.8 blocks, 0.6 turnovers)

He is, for the most part, doing what we knew he could, from a positive standpoint (rebounding well, great big passing, solid positional defense) and a negative (no offensive threat, struggles against athleticism). He has been a solid backup big to give Kingsley. Any hopes for him to evolve into something more haven’t been realized, but he can play 10 to 15 decent minutes a night.

Thompson could still probably stand to trim some weight, but has flashed some rim protection at times this year (five multi-block games) and even finished an impressive alley-oop jam. His 15.4 rebound percentage is second on the team to Kingsley and he knows where to be on defense, important in a second unit that has mashed opponents much of the year. He and Cook have worked well in tandem and the Hogs are allowing only 91.5 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor.

He still isn’t much of an offensive presence (20 shots in 13 games), but there is enough scoring on this team to make that a non-issue. He may not be the perfect system fit for Anderson, but he has turned out to be a solid backup. That’s worth something.

Brachen Hazen (0.4 points, 1.1 rebounds)

A game is officially out of reach when Hazen reports to the scorer’s table. That has been the sign of garbage time this year for the Razorbacks. He’s only played 32 minutes in eight games, which is about what was expected entering the year for a player who will have to adjust to Division I ball.

He hasn’t shown much other than a knack for attacking the glass, a valuable skill that can serve to differentiate him from a typical stretch 4, what the staff is banking on him becoming. His shot has potential but will need to improve. He needs to get stronger and improve his lateral quickness. He appears to have a good motor.

It’s too early to tell whether Hazen will be a contributor down the line. There is a potentially valuable skill set there, but he has to work to unlock it and improve physically. That work will be almost exclusively be done in the practice gym at this point.

Adrio Bailey (2.4 points, 1.5 rebounds)

Bailey has appeared in all but two games, with mixed results. His athleticism is easily discernible but hasn’t shown it all that often. That’s the result of a freshman learning the ropes and adjusting to being an undersized big.

That athleticism will be vital, because he is almost always going to be matched against taller players if he plays as a 4. He could project as a wing in time, but has a long way to go from a skills standpoint to make it happen. Anderson has increasingly paired him with Kingsley in a lineup that should, in theory, be really good defensively as it pairs the two best shot blockers on the team. So far, they haven’t made the paint a no-fly zone, but kudos to Anderson for trying it out.

Bailey is still a raw prospect. He will develop and continue to get better. The potential is there. Take the Sam Houston State game for example. He followed up a demonstrative help-side block by stonewalling a turnaround jumper with another block. He was whistled for a questionable foul on the second, but the two plays show his defensive potential.

It isn’t necessarily fair to expect a Michael Qualls-like jump from year one to year two. Qualls was more skilled and more a part of the rotation as a freshman. But Bailey’s athleticism is in the same stratosphere. He could get a whole lot better quickly. Whether he improves enough this season to make a difference is anybody’s guess, but he may be stuck playing garbage time or a few spot minutes a night against top competition.

STOCK FALLING

Dusty Hannahs (14.6 points, 1.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.5 turnovers)

Hannahs is a tricky case. For the first time in his career, he’s shooting better than 50 percent inside the arc. He’s very good at leveraging his shooting ability and defender’s fear of him getting off 3-pointers into attacking closeouts and making plays off the dribble. He’s improved as a finisher and can create his own shot with ease, a skill that’ll come in handy late in games. He was never just a shooter, but he's become a much more complete offensive player.

But his clear-cut best skill — shooting — has taken a sizable step back. A year after knocking down a phenomenal 43.3 percent of his 3-pointers, he’s dipped to 36.8 percent this year. That is still a solid number, tied with Beard for third on the team. But Arkansas needs his shooting on a team that simply doesn’t generate a lot of 3-point looks, in part because of personnel. Only he and Macon attempt more than three triples a game.

Hannahs’ early season 3-point slump wasn’t a huge deal because he found other ways to score. But he enters January mired in a mini-scoring slump, averaging 9.3 points the last three games, a low number for him that is even a bit inflated by some negligible late-game buckets. Florida had success planting long defenders on him, an approach the rest of the SEC may mirror. Arkansas hasn’t run him off pin-down screens as much and he hasn’t gotten the same quality of looks without Jabril Durham setting him up. Hannahs is a perfectionist when it comes to his shot. The misses have to be frustrating to someone who works so hard at his craft and is coming off a season as good as the one he pieced together a year ago.

It is fair to wonder if last season was a bit of an outlier. Hannahs is very obviously a talented shooter, but the 36.8 percent he’s shooting this year is practically identically to the 36.9 and 37.4 he shot in his two years at Texas Tech. All three are solid numbers, but on a team starved for perimeter shooting (again), the Hogs were relying on a repeat of his junior season. That’s not to say he won’t shoot better than 40 percent the rest of the season. But it would take a heck of a run in SEC play to come close to matching what he did last year, from a shooting perspective.

There's also the question of how he's been utilized. He’s 6 of 16 since Anderson moved him back into the starting lineup two games ago. He thrived as the unquestioned top dog on a bench unit with Beard, Jones/Bailey, Thompson and Cook. His 27.5 usage rate is easily the highest on the team, partly as a result of the freedom he was allowed to be a gunner in those lineups. Bringing him off the bench also let him defend more against other bench players, which is a plus. He’s made a few flashy defensive plays, but gets lost at times and isn’t a good on-ball defender. He has a team-worst 104.5 defensive rating, a number that has ballooned to 110.3 against RPI Top 100 opponents.

He is a skilled, capable passer but doesn’t pass often, which is OK, particularly in those bench lineups. He was the center of the offense in a way he can’t be when he shares the court with a combination of Macon, Barford and Kingsley. This isn’t to suggest he shouldn’t share the court with those players — he obviously should and will. But it may be time to move him back to a sixth-man role. And he needs to start shooting the ball better. That’s on him to hit shots and on the team and staff to get him better looks.

Hannahs has still been effective, but Arkansas needs more out of him.

Moses Kingsley (11.4 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.0 blocks, 2.2 turnovers, 1.5 assists)

Another tricky case. Kingsley is Arkansas’ most important player, hands down. No one else on the roster can come close to providing what he does at the level he does.

He is a great athlete for his size and has been an good rebounder and elite shot blocker this year. He’s averaging 8.7 rebounds per game, which is down slightly from the 9.3 he pulled in a year ago. But Arkansas is a better rebounding team as a whole and Kingsley ranks sixth in the SEC among qualified players with a 17.4 rebounding percentage. When he’s on the court, he grabs roughly one of every 10 Razorback missed shots. He’s averaging three blocks per game, a career-high, while altering many more. Arkansas allows just 91.1 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor. Rebounding and rim protection are his most valuable contributions to the team.

Therein lies some of the issue. He’s been asked to be a low-post scorer this year and it hasn’t worked well, for the most part. He’s shooting just 46.4 percent, way down from the 54.8 percent he shot last year when Durham spoon fed him easy buckets on a regular basis. Often, Arkansas halts the flow of its offense to post Kingsley and it just hasn’t been very efficient. He’s had trouble establishing good position and has struggled against length (5-15 against Florida and 2-8 against Texas). He is a talented passer from the low post, but has seemingly been pressing to score lately, perhaps a combination of trying to live up to his SEC Preseason Player of the Year billing, trying too hard to reverse his struggles and operating with the knowledge that he’s getting less shots (8.2 this year compared to 10.4 last year) on a more balanced roster. He’s averaging just 0.8 assists the last six games after tallying 2.1 per the first seven games. Post-ups aren’t typically efficient actions unless the offense can use it as a vehicle to work inside-out some, too.

To be clear: this isn’t saying the Hogs shouldn’t post Kingsley some. They should. But not as much. And they need to find other ways to get him the ball, whether in transition, on dump-offs, rolls or him simply scoring off putbacks more.

He is having a strong year in other aspects, but the offensive issues have been evident and troubling. The Hogs need to figure out how to get him going.

Jaylen Barford (9.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.8 turnovers, 1.2 steals)

While Macon has made a smooth transition from the JUCO ranks and Cook is growing more and more comfortable, Barford has struggled to find his footing. He was the No. 1 JUCO recruit in the nation last year in large part because his 26.2 points per game led the nation in scoring. But he also had a well-rounded game, averaging 7.2 rebounds and 4.7 assists. Obviously that production wasn’t going to just carry over, but the problem has been that little of it has.

So far, Barford has been largely one-dimensional: He either impacts the game with his scoring or doesn’t provide much. Even his offense has been an issue. He has been superb as a finisher in transition, but has struggled in the halfcourt. While his broad shoulders and sturdy build allow him to get into the paint and have led to some high-degree-of-difficulty finishes, the forays have been inefficient as a whole. His 47.8 TS% and 44.8 eFG% are easily the lowest on the team among rotation players and Arkansas’ offense has performed much worse with him operating as the lead guard than it has with Beard or Macon working in the same capacity.

His plus-1.4 net rating is the worst among rotation players. Arkansas is scoring just 99.4 points per game with him on the floor, more than 14 points less than its overall average, 24 points less than how the offense performs with Beard on the floor and 27 points worse than when Macon is on the court. The Hogs’ offensive rating dips to a ghastly 92.8 with Barford on the court against RPI Top 100 opponents, making him an ugly minus-11.8.

He has the ability to get into the lane almost at will, yet has rarely used it to set up others. He could help get Kingsley easy looks or drive and kick to Hannahs or Macon, but hasn’t shown the ability to consistently do so in games, a discouraging reality after he showed signs of being a creator in the summer. His 17.4 assist percentage isn’t terrible, but it dips to 15.3 against RPI Top 100 foes and not many of his assists are coming as a result of him breaking down the defense to create a look, something he should be able to do as he attracts emergency help on drives.

His role is in flux. Anderson moved him to the bench the last two games. In his four games coming off the pine, he’s averaging 8.5 points and shooting 35.5 percent, compared to 10.1 points and 43.5 percent as a starter. It’s easy to see why Anderson moved him out of the starting lineup — he’s been struggling. But he’s been even worse coming off the bench, while Hannahs has been shaky as a starter. It’s an interesting predicament.

Barford has talent. Some of his hanging-in-air finishes or the penchant for transition blocks are tantalizing reminders of the difference maker he can be. But he needs to start putting together the whole package, both for the good of the team and in order to avoid continuing to have his role lessened.

Dustin Thomas (6.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.9 turnovers)

Thomas and Kingsley are the only two Razorbacks who have started every game this year. Kingsley isn’t coming out of the starting lineup. Once upon a time, it seemed like a lock Thomas would be a no-brainer starter all year. Not anymore.

He’s played less minutes and been less effective than Cook for a few weeks now, dating back to the Texas game when Anderson first opted to go with the JUCO transfer in place of the Colorado transfer in his closing lineup. And while Cook’s uptick in minutes is in part the result of his hard work and production, it’s more about Thomas’ slumping play.

Take Thomas’ performance in Arkansas’ three games against major-conference opponents for example. He’s averaging 2.3 points, 2.3 rebounds and 3.7 fouls while shooting 16.7 percent in 15 minutes a game. Against good opponents with good size, Thomas — probably generously listed at 6-8 — has been rendered ineffective. He doesn’t protect the rim and too often hasn’t finished well around the basket on the other end of the court.

It’s a problem. So is his struggle to utilize a unique skill set no other big on the team has. He spent the year off after the transfer revamping his shot, but he slips into old habits in games and has only attempted two 3-pointers all year after taking them without hesitation during offseason workouts. His shooting could’ve enabled him to be the perfect floor-spacing compliment to Kingsley, but it hasn’t worked out like that. Maybe it will. But he’s been just average as a mid-range shooter, nevermind anything further.

His 14.5 assist percentage is very good for a big and he’s averaging 3.4 assists per 40 minutes. But he rarely showcases the same playmaking verve that he teased in the offseason when he led breaks after pulling down rebounds, slipped slick dimes in traffic for easy looks and whipped passes in the halfcourt. Part of that is probably because game settings are different. Part of it is the result of the guards on the roster being ball dominant. But Thomas hasn’t been the type of playmaker it seemed he could.

His rebounding has been solid. He is shooting a career-best 74.3 percent from the line. From a talent standpoint, he is the clear-cut best option next to Kingsley. But he needs to start playing like it.