Projecting Arkansas' 2017-18 basketball rotation

Arkansas guard Jaylen Barford (0) dribbles the ball during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against South Carolina Wednesday, Feb. 15, 2017, in Columbia, S.C. Arkansas defeated South Carolina 83-76. (AP Photo/Sean Rayford)

— Jaylen Barford and Daryl Macon’s decisions to return to Arkansas for their senior seasons finalized the makeup of the Razorbacks’ 2017-18 roster.

With the guard tandem back in the fold, Arkansas will return 3 regular starters and 9 contributors from a 26-win team that made it to the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

Barford and Macon are potential All-SEC candidates, but the roster has a chance to have depth beyond them, too. The Hogs add a promising freshman trio, will count on larger contributions from at least a few rising sophomores and will boast 6 seniors.

The Razorbacks could conceivably be 10, perhaps even 11, deep, so there will be fluctuations in playing time throughout the year as Mike Anderson experiments with personnel. He used 11 starting lineups last season and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he approached or surpassed that number next year, given the depth and amount of new and young faces in the mix.

That depth is apparent when trying to pinpoint roles and rotations. But I took a crack at identifying where players could potentially fit, breaking down roles into 4 categories (1 - headliners, 2 - potential starters and key rotation players, 3 - bench contributors and 4 - reserves) and identifying why each player will or won’t be capable of filling said roles. I took into account expected progression, but obviously much can change between now and October.

HEADLINERS

Go-to guys, players who are essentially locks to start and play major minutes.

JAYLEN BARFORD, G, SR, 6-3, 202

Stats: 12.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2 apg, 1.9 topg, 1.2 spg, 43.8 FG, 26.6 3PT, 75.2 FT

Why he will start: He is a terror in the open court, an athletic finisher who should be poised for a big senior year after averaging a team-best 15.7 points in the final 10 games last year. If he improves his jumper and become a better distributor, he will help his chances of playing at the next level and increase his odds for being All-SEC.

Why he won’t start: Anderson isn’t afraid to bring a big-name senior off the bench (Dusty Hannahs, last year), but Barford and Macon are head-and-shoulders the best guards on the team. Moses Kingsley was the best big on the team last year and was the only player to start every game.

DARYL MACON, G, SR, 6-3, 185

Stats: 13.4 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.8 topg, 1.1 spg, 45.3 FG, 38.7 3PT, 86.6 FT

Why he will start: He could be one of the leading scorers in the SEC. He wasn’t shy about shooting as a junior, but will have even more of a green light next year and will put up big numbers if he has another uber-efficient season. His passing and defense have room to improve, but he and Barford can make up one of the most dynamic backcourts in the SEC.

Why he won’t start: The backcourt is less crowded than it was a year ago and like Barford, Macon is easily a superior option. Barring injury or a trip to Anderson’s doghouse, it seems like a safe bet both will start every game.

POTENTIAL STARTERS/KEY ROTATION PLAYERS

These players could start or come off the bench, but they’ll all likely be in the short rotation and have a chance to play significant minutes.

ANTON BEARD, G, SR, 6-0, 198

Stats: 7.2 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.1 spg, 1.1 topg, 40.4 FG, 35.6 3PT, 74.7 FT

Why he will start: Beard has easily played the most minutes on the team over the course of his career and there’s a chance he will be part of the Razorbacks’ starting and crunch-time lineups. In addition to experience, he brings playmaking and shooting ability to the table, skills the roster as a whole isn't necessarily flush with.

Why he won’t start: If he starts alongside Barford and Macon, it means the Razorbacks won’t bring any experienced guards off the bench. That can be worked around to an extent by staggering rotations, of course, but it could make sense to bring Beard off the bench to run the second unit. Regardless of whether he starts or comes off the bench, Beard will play major minutes.

C.J. JONES, G, SOPH, 6-5, 175

Stats: 2.4 ppg, 0.7 rpg, 47.2 FG, 50 3PT, 71.4 FT

Why he will start: He may have as much upside as anyone on the team thanks to his combination of size, shooting ability and athleticism. He can space the floor next to Barford and Macon while feasting on spot-up looks when they draw defensive attention. It isn’t a stretch to expect a big sophomore jump from him. He’ll likely play big minutes and has the scoring ability to average near or in double-figures. Arkansas needs him to help fill the perimeter shooting void left by Hannahs.

Why he won’t start: Anderson values defense and that (along with a deep, veteran backcourt) is what kept Jones off the floor as a freshman. If he hasn’t improved on that end, the staff may see him as more of a sixth-man type, someone who can provide offense off the bench.

TREY THOMPSON, F/C, SR, 6-9, 265

Stats: 2.4 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.6 apg, 0.8 bpg, 0.6 spg, 0.6 topg, 63 FG, 65.5 FT

Why he will start: Thompson will arguably be the best passing non-guard in the SEC next year, is a solid rebounder and an underrated defender in the paint. He is Arkansas’ most-experienced big. He hasn’t provided much in the way of scoring so far, but that doesn’t really matter given what else he brings to the table. Arkansas scored a blistering 126.2 points per 100 possessions with him on the court and he owned the best net rating on the team.

Why he won’t start: Barford and Macon’s presence means the starters will be able to score, so bringing Thompson off the bench to help spark the second unit’s offense could be an attractive option for Anderson, especially if he’s out there with Beard since they play so well off each other. Thompson has struggled at times with conditioning and his 6.3 fouls per 40 minutes ranked second on the team last year, which could factor into the decision. But he will play big minutes whether as a starter or off the bench.

DANIEL GAFFORD, F/C, FR, 6-11, 223

Stats (high school): 17.4 ppg, 16 rpg, 7.7 bpg, 2.5 spg, 1.5 topg, 1.4 apg, 70 FG, 53.1 FT

Why he will start: Standing 6-11 with a 7-2 wingspan, Gafford is taller and just as long as Moses Kingsley. Combine that with impressive athleticism and he will be the most physically gifted big on the roster by a long shot. A top-50 recruit, his tools give him a chance to make an impact on defense and the glass immediately. It may not be fair to expect him to immediately replicate what the senior version of Kingsley (who probably grew to be underrated a bit) produced, but Arkansas is counting on him to play big minutes. He likely won’t generate much offense on his own early in his career, but his ability to finish above the rim with ease on dump-offs and putbacks could make him a nice fit in a lineup with Macon and Barford, who will attract quite a bit of defensive attention.

Why he won’t start: It won’t be a surprise if there’s a transition period as he adjusts to college basketball. Thompson is a reliable and capable option, so Anderson has the luxury of bringing Gafford off the bench if he wants, at least to start the season. Gafford will need to play big minutes, so learning to avoid foul trouble, an issue in high school, will be important.

DUSTIN THOMAS, F, SR, 6-8, 225

Stats: 5.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.1 apg, 1 topg, 48.6 FG, 20 3PT, 65.7 FT

Why he will start: The 4 was Arkansas’ weak spot last year, by a landslide, as a result of Thomas and Arlando Cook’s inconsistency and Adrio Bailey’s lack of experience. But Anderson trusted Thomas the most out of the group. He started 27 games, was a mainstay in the rotation and closed the year averaging more minutes the last 10 games (18.5) than he did the rest of the season (17.8). His 13-point, 5-rebound showing against Seton Hall in the NCAA Tournament was a timely performance on a big stage and perhaps a springboard for more consistent production. He easily has the most experience of the 4s and has to be the odds-on favorite to start.

Why he won’t start: That experience can work both ways. He struggled to produce consistently in his third year of Division I ball, so it’s fair to question how much room he has for improvement. He was especially ineffective against good competition, averaging just 2.2 points on 35.3 percent shooting and struggling with foul trouble against Top-25 foes. His inability to hit jumpers or consistently utilize his passing skills were strikes against him. Arkansas has at least 5 players who can play his position, more if Gafford and/or Thompson are included, so he will need to raise his game with increased competition for playing time or risk having his role lessened.

ADRIO BAILEY, F, SOPH, 6-6, 204

Stats: 1.9 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 56.4 FG, 31.6 FT

Why he will be a rotation fixture: Bailey is one of the most intriguing players on the roster. He is undersized for a 4, where he played in his limited minutes as a freshman, but his athleticism helps mitigate height discrepancies, evidenced by the spark he provided against North Carolina. He is determined to make himself into a wing this offseason, working on his ballhandling and trying to improve his shooting. If he can hone those skills and become a versatile combo forward-type who can play on the wing, he becomes invaluable. His length and athleticism could make him a menacing wing defender. He has a good deal of upside and it isn’t far-fetched to think he makes a sizable jump and finds his way into the starting lineup somewhere.

Why he won’t be a big part of the rotation: He has a long way to go as a shooter and if he can’t effectively play on the wing alongside 2 “bigs,” it leaves him competing with Thomas, Cook and others for minutes at the 4 again. While there is reason to think he becomes a rotation regular, there are enough options to limit his playing time if he doesn’t make expected growth.

BENCH PLAYERS

It isn’t out of the realm of possibility some of these players start, but it is more likely they come off the bench. Several will wind up being regulars in the rotation, but depth means they’ll have to compete to earn consistent minutes.

ARLANDO COOK, F, SR, 6-8, 215

Stats: 2.8 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 43.8 FG, 64.9 FT

Why he will be a rotation fixture: Last season was his first playing Division I ball and it isn’t out of the ordinary for junior college players to improve substantially in their second season. There’s a chance Cook does that as a senior. His motor is a valuable tool and the ticket to earning consistent playing time on a roster with more competition for said time than last year. Hustle is a skill and Cook showed he could make a difference doing that in mid December and early January. Anderson values experience and he now has a year of it.

Why he won’t be a big part of the rotation: He didn’t come on strong late in the year as he gained experience, instead fading badly down the stretch and averaging 0.9 points on 31.2 percent shooting in just 7.1 minutes the last 13 games of the year while slipping out of the rotation at times. Like Thomas, he couldn’t stretch the floor and was less efficient overall. Bailey should be improved and Darious Hall is more gifted with a higher ceiling. Both may also play on the wing some, too, but Cook, like Thomas, will need to make strides to ward off the younger competition for his minutes.

KHALIL GARLAND, G, FR., 6-5, 190

Stats: 15.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.3 apg, 2.2 topg, 1.9 spg, 62 FG, 51.9 3PT, 70.1 FT

Why he will be a rotation fixture: He measured 6-5 with a 6-6 wingspan and a 37-inch max vertical at an in-state combine in the fall, an impressive showing. His size, athleticism, positional versatility and potential as a slasher give him an opportunity to have a role. He will help his chances if he embraces playing defense. He wants to be a primary ballhandler, so continuing to hone his point guard skills will be important.

Why he won’t be a big part of the rotation: Freshmen are always wildcards, to a degree. There are a quartet of older guards on the roster, while Hall and Bailey playing wing minutes would further squeeze the rotation. He hasn’t proven he can consistently stretch the floor, going from rarely taking 3-pointers in AAU ball to attempting 27 (and making 14) as a high school senior. He will need to continue to develop as a willing shooter.

DARIOUS HALL, F, FR, 6-6, 210

Stats (high school): 15.2 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.9 topg, 1.7 spg, 72.7 FT

Why he will be a rotation fixture: Hall measured 6-6 with a 7-foot wingspan and a 37-inch max vertical at the same combine as Garland. Those are big-league numbers, the kind of physical ability that could allow him to crack the rotation as a freshman. The appeal of Hall’s game, much like Bailey, is his potential to be the kind of combo forward Anderson covets. Anderson referred to him as a wing in March and his perimeter skills are already farther along than Bailey’s. He is a solid ballhandler and while his perimeter shooting is a work in progress, he has improved in that area. Lineups with him and Bailey alongside Thompson or Gafford would put a lot of length on the court. His versatility increases the likelihood Hall cracks the rotation as a freshman.

Why he won’t be a big part of the rotation: He’s a freshman, so there’s no guarantee how he adjusts to college basketball. There is enough depth both on the wing and at forward to keep him from being a lock for playing time. How big of a role he has or if he has one at all largely depends on how quickly he can acclimate himself to new surroundings.

RESERVES

These players have an uphill battle to crack the rotation next season.

BRACHEN HAZEN, F, SOPH, 6-8, 205

Stats: 43 total minutes played, 1-6 FG, 0-2 3PT, 1-4 FT, 12 rebounds, 4 turnovers

Why he could earn minutes: He is the best shooter among the bigs on a team that needs shooting and has a nose for the basketball on the boards. He has definite flaws and there is a wealth of competition for playing time at his position, but those are valuable skills.

Why he will be a reserve: First and foremost, there are a lot of bodies ahead of him at his position. He needs to continue to grow physically, gaining strength in order to hold up in the paint and adding quickness if he wants to have a chance to hang on the wing. Given his skill set, there is a potential path to playing time after this year when Thomas and Cook graduate, but he will likely have to settle for garbage-time minutes again as a sophomore.