LITTLE ROCK — A luck-of-the-draw SEC schedule gives Arkansas an edge over other second-tier league teams pursuing a NCAA Tournament bid, but confidence in the Razorbacks’ ability to take advantage of the break ebbs and flows with the latest on-court result.
No matter whether the opponent is from the ACC or the Sun Belt, it’s all about winning and losing the close games and, until Arkansas defeated Texas State 73-70 last week, Arkansas was 1-3 in games decided by four points or less.
Guaranteed, there will be a half-dozen SEC games decided by two possessions or less and winning those often comes down to making one more play of some sort than the opponent in the final minutes.
In the post-game Saturday, Mike Anderson alluded to as much: “You’ve got to have somebody step up and make plays, that’s kind of what has been missing.”
With that in mind, take a closer look at Arkansas’ upcoming schedule, starting with expectations in the SEC. Kentucky, Tennessee, Auburn, Mississippi State — picked to finish 1-4 by the media — are Nos. 16, 3, 12, and 19 in the latest AP poll.
Based on what some might consider twisted logic, Arkansas’ schedule is slightly better than that of LSU and Texas A&M.
The Razorbacks, Tigers and Aggies play all four of the SEC’s best only once. But, three of Arkansas’ four games are on the road and the one in Fayetteville is against Mississippi State, the team among the four that Arkansas is most likely to beat. Both LSU and A&M split their four games home and road.
Because Arkansas needs to protect its home court, losing in Knoxville, Auburn and Lexington would not hurt Arkansas’ chance of an NCAA bid nearly as much as losing to the Vols or the Tigers or the Wildcats in Bud Walton. And, beating any of the three on the road would be a huge plus.
At this point, Mississippi State is the best SEC team to play in Fayetteville and a perfect record at home would be a rock-solid base for an SEC record above .500, the minimum to be considered for one of the five or six NCAA Tournament bids awarded to SEC teams.
Any conjecture concerning the Razorbacks going 2-0 against any of five SEC opponents assumes Daniel Gafford remains healthy, and Anderson’s young team continues to improve.
That said, Gafford is not going to score 25-30 per game, particularly taking less than 10 shots per game as has been the case the last three games, and he is certainly not a 3-point shooter, a must-have for every successful team.
Along those lines 6-foot-5 freshman Isaiah Joe is the most likely candidate even though he was 3-of-12 and 1-of-5 from long range the last two games.
Former Razorback Pat Bradley said recently that Joe would be on the All-SEC Freshman team and described him as a better shooter than his assistant coach, Scotty Thurman, when Thurman was at the same stage of his career in 1992-93.
Hopefully, the Razorbacks learned a lesson before the Christmas break — firing up 32 from beyond the arc and missing 22 in the loss to Georgia Tech, but only attempting 11 in the victory over Texas State.
So far, among the SEC’s best, Kentucky has been the biggest disappointment vs. expectations.
In early November, before Duke scored 118 and embarrassed Kentucky by 34, Bovada.lv posted 5-1 odds on both the Blue Devils and the Wildcats to win the NCAA championship. At that point, Tennessee was the ninth choice at 28-1.
This week, Duke is the heavy favorite at 9-5 and Tennessee at 14-1 is the SEC team with the lowest odds. Kentucky is 20-1, Auburn is 25-1 and Mississippi State is 70-1. At 85-1, Florida is the only other SEC team under 110-1.
By the way, Kentucky has home and home with all three of the other contenders, while Tennessee has only one game with both Auburn and Mississippi State.