Defending the 3 — or not
FAYETTEVILLE — Last week wasn’t a banner week for Arkansas’ defense. But just how bad was it?
The Hogs are now officially last in the SEC in defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage, and 13th in 3-point defense, per KenPom, allowing opponents to knock down 40.4 percent of their triple tries.
Only 11 Power 5 programs are worse than Arkansas — 231st nationally — defending the 3 this season, and five have losing records or currently sit at .500 with four weeks left in the regular season (Iowa, Georgia Tech, Indiana, Wake Forest, California).
The Razorbacks’ 25 3-pointers given up last week are tied for the most over a two-game stretch since at least the beginning of the 2001 season. Louisville/Appalachian State in 2009 and Akron/Charleston Southern in 2015 also combined for 25 3s.
Arkansas’ inability to step out to 3-point shooters has been a troubling trend in SEC play. As of now, it’s giving up an average of 9.9 per game, and Saturday’s loss at LSU marked the seventh time in 10 league games an opponent knocked down 10+ from beyond the arc after doing so just twice in 12 nonconference games. The Razorbacks haven’t finished better than 6th in the SEC in 3-point defense under Mike Anderson.
It boils down to two things: poor communication and poor rotations/help. Today I asked Anderson what he thought the missing links were in that area:
"I think that's third, fourth and fifth effort. Our rotation has been lacking, so to speak. It's amazing because early on we were doing a pretty good job rotating. So you've got to have that energy to get to that next pass. ... I think we have lacked some guys giving that third and fourth effort and that's got to take place when you play the style we play. It's called fixing things on defense, and we haven't done it."
Example 1 — Tuesday, Texas A&M runs a basic baseline out of bounds play with a shooter running to the near corner from the left block. With Trey Thompson and Dustin Thomas both standing in the restricted area, there’s no need for C.J. Jones to defend against a rim cut, but he does, and it leaves Admon Gilder wide open for 3 without expending any energy.
Example 2 — Saturday, Skylar Mays and Duop Reath run a simple pick-and-pop on the left wing and Trey Thompson, defending against a possible drive, slides over to pick up Mays as Reath pops to the top of the key. No one around him. Meanwhile, Daryl Macon is glued to his man on the right wing and offers no help and only a insignificant jab step toward the shooter.
Reath had pulled two 3s prior to this sequence, so Arkansas should understand he’s capable of taking another. Plus, the big man is a solid 3-point shooter in limited attempts (11 of 23 entering the game). Failure to rotate and lend a hand to teammates has been one of the major downfalls in conference play. It’s pure laziness.
Arkansas’ lack of effort on the defensive end (1.34 PPP allowed) wasted by far the team’s best performance on the road this season. The Hogs shot 55 percent, averaged 1.226 PPP and lost. It’s the first time this season Arkansas lost with an offensive efficiency rating better than 112.4.
Hitting the middle of the zone
In an attempt to slow the pace of the game, Arkansas’ opponents have shown 2-3 zone quite a bit of late.
Teams know Arkansas would rather turn each game into a track meet. The Razorbacks average 15.6 seconds per offensive possession this season, which ranks 27th nationally, and run with the hopes of getting off a clean look early in the shot clock.
Mike Anderson has been adamant in press conference about his guys dictating tempo and not letting teams force them into a halfcourt game, but five times in SEC play Arkansas has failed to reach its season average of 70 possessions per game.
But one way to increase offensive efficiency and clean looks against it is to work the basics of a zone offense and hit the middle man. It sounds simple, but isn’t something this team does a lot. Instead, the guards prefer to operate largely on the outer thirds of the floor, which can prohibit ball reversals that would force the defense to react and rotate properly.
Here, Arkansas attacks Texas A&M’s 2-3 zone with a high ballscreen. Dustin Thomas sets a solid pick on Daryl Macon’s man, and Macon fires a pass to Jaylen Barford as Thomas slices directly to the void in the zone. Only problem is Barford is whistled for traveling and Thomas’ bucket is wiped away.
Despite the turnover, this is a great example of a player making himself available and how crisp ball movement can open up the next passing angle.
Here is yet another strong case for utilizing Trey Thompson’s gifts as a passer more often. Mike Anderson has long said the senior is the team’s best passer.
It also really helps to have active slashers like Darious Hall in the lineup alongside Thompson. The ball rarely sticks in his hands and he makes great finds more often than not. The Aggies are caught ballwatching a bit, Hall cuts backdoor and finishes strong at the rim on Tyler Davis.
Arkansas guards hit Thompson and Thomas with a handful of passes at or near the SEC logo on Tuesday. The bigs then did a solid job finding shooters, working inside-out for open looks. Thompson once collapsed the defense with a dribble in the lane before spotting Macon in the corner for 3, and Thomas did the same for Anton Beard on the right wing. It then comes down to shotmaking at that point.
We also saw one instance of Jaylen Barford becoming the target at the pinch at A&M, where he smoothly knocked down an easy jumper off a simple feed from Hall.
Arkansas had quite a bit of success when it got the ball to the money area against the zone, and it’ll need to happen with greater frequency this week against South Carolina and Vanderbilt.
The Case for Dustin Thomas
The power forward position has been a revolving door over the last three games.
Mike Anderson is looking for some semblance of consistency. In Adrio Bailey’s last start against Oklahoma State, he turned the ball over on his first touch and played just three total minutes. Arlando Cook then got his opportunity at Texas A&M, but went scoreless and grabbed one rebound in 13 minutes all the while Bailey didn’t see the floor.
Dustin Thomas should be Arkansas’ top option at the 4, and he’s stated his case for a larger role as others have struggled. Granted, Thomas is prone to committing silly fouls and turning the ball over at times, but has provided value, for the most part, over the last two weeks.
Arkansas has allowed just 1.03 PPP with Thomas on the floor in the four games since his DNP. His +.06 PPP differential is second best on the team to Daryl Macon’s +.07 in that span, even better than Jaylen Barford.
He was -.01 in games at Texas A&M and LSU, but it was actually the best mark of any player on the roster over the two games. The Aggies and Tigers scored 1.07 PPP with him on the floor and 1.38 without him. Arkansas’ defense was by no means great last week, but it was markedly better with him in the game.
Last week, I wrote on how his nastiness and active hands led to easy points for Arkansas in transition. Thomas is not only shooting 53 percent from the floor and second on the team in rebounding in the last five games, he has six steals as well, which rank second only to Barford’s 10.
Arkansas’ defensive turnover rate shot up to 23.2 percent with him in the lineup the last two weeks and opponents’ 3-point percentage dwindled to just over 33 percent in 142 possessions versus 47.8 percent when he’s off the floor.
I’d like to see he, Darious Hall - perhaps in place of Anton Beard — Daryl Macon and Jaylen Barford on the floor together more. That group got just 30 possessions on both ends in the last four games, so it’s a small sample size, but the results were good: 1.13 PPP on offense, .70 PPP defensively, or +13.
The importance of this week
Arkansas is now in desperate need of wins to keep its NCAA Tournament hopes alive. With a loss this week things could really begin to sour.
The Hogs have been slipping in bracket projections for three weeks now and sit as a 10 seed by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and an 11 by CBS Sports basketball analyst Jerry Palm.
If Arkansas can pull out wins over South Carolina and Vanderbilt in Bud Walton Arena this week, it could give the roster a definite jolt and some positive momentum heading into a vital portion of the schedule.
Following this week, five of the Hogs’ final six games come against teams currently ranked in the top 50 by KenPom, which includes a rigorous stretch 10-day stretch against Texas A&M, Kentucky, at Alabama and Auburn. They'll then travel to Missouri to close out the regular season and face a team that appears to be hitting its stride after a pair of 69-60 wins against Kentucky and at Alabama.