If Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa wins the Heisman Trophy and ends a long drought in Fayetteville in the process, kudos to those who extrapolated his season-long success from barely 30 minutes of meaningful playing time.
The sophomore-to-be is no lock.
His cool in the second half of the national championship game vs. Georgia is unquestioned, but would he have been as comfortable if he had been named the starter a week in advance? Assuming he wins the job in the spring, he will have all summer to think about expectations.
Also in play are Heisman voters with unrealistic presumptions of performance, a new offensive coordinator, and the departure of Calvin Ridley, likely to be the No. 1 receiver in the NFL draft.
For Tagovailoa believers, he was a steal at 10-1 odds to win the Heisman when Bovada.lv first posted its line. After one day of wagering, his odds were 7-1, one click behind the favorites.
Originally, the only players with lower odds than Tagovailoa were Stanford running back Bryce Love at 7-1, Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor at 8-1, and Arizona quarterback Khalil Tate at 9-1. Twenty-four hours later, Ohio State running back J.K. Dobbins and Taylor were 6-1 while Tagovailoa and Love were 7-1, and Tate was 14-1.
Tagovailoa’s projected success is based solely on the Georgia game while the other early favorites have compiled a year or two of statistics:
—Love 3,123 yards rushing and 24 touchdowns in two years.
—Taylor, 1,977 yards rushing and 13 touchdowns in one year.
—Dobbins, 1,403 yards rushing and seven touchdowns in one year.
—Tate, 1,591 yards passing, 1,411 yards rushing, and 26 touchdowns in one year.
—Tagovailoa, 14-of-24 for 166 yards and three touchdowns in one half and an OT.
Although there is a supposed competition between Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts this spring in Tuscaloosa, Hurts was not among the 23 players with odds to win the Heisman. Ironically, Hurts — 26-2 as a starter — was mentioned in December peeks at 2018 Heisman candidates and Tagovailoa was not.
Before more Tagovailoa vs. Hurts, a quiz for Razorback fans:
Name the last Heisman winner who played in Fayetteville the year he took home the trophy?
Recent Heisman winners from the SEC West include Alabama’s Derrick Henry in 2015, Texas A&M’s Johnny Manziel in 2012, Auburn’s Cam Newton in 2010, and Alabama’s Mark Ingram in 2009, but the Razorbacks faced those teams on the road those particular years. Florida’s Tim Tebow competed in Fayetteville in 2008, the year after he won the Heisman.
The answer is another Florida quarterback, Danny Wuerffel, who completed 23 of 39 for a school-record 462 yards and four touchdowns in a 42-7 victory in 1996 — at the time, the Razorbacks’ worst home loss in 65 years.
As for Alabama’s quarterback competition, Tagovailoa’s performance in the national championship game is impossible to ignore. Starting the second half trailing 13-0, he suffered an immediate three and out, was sacked on the first play of overtime, then looked off the safety and completed a 41-yard pass for the game winner.
“That’s Tom Brady like, but as a true freshman,” said former Arkansas quarterback Kevin Scanlon.
That said, there is reason to pull for Hurts, a class act when benched. When Tagovailoa threw his initial TD pass, Hurts was first to congratulate the man who relegated him to a sub on the biggest stage in college football.
“This is what you were made for,” Hurts told Tagovailoa. You were built for this. …”
In the post-game, Hurts never uttered a negative.
As a long-time Heisman voter, candidates don’t get serious attention until November. On the other hand, 2016 winner Lamar Jackson of Louisville was eliminated by mid-October 2017 when the Cardinals lost for the third time.
Tagovailoa or Hurts, the Alabama quarterback can count on winning at least 10, including in Fayetteville on Oct. 6.