LITTLE ROCK — Razorback baseball continues in Omaha, identity of the 3-point shooter needed to complement Daniel Gafford remains a mystery and the first fall football practice under Chad Morris is more than a month away.
The time is right for an annual exercise involving Monopoly money and Nevada’s over-under number for regular-season wins by Arkansas and the rest of the SEC.
Working with a self-imposed limit of $30 per wager and a $200 bankroll, the venture turned a hypothetical profit of $120 in 2016 with a variety of winning wagers and $40 in 2017 because the max was bet on both Mississippi State and South Carolina, and both won eight vs. an over-under of 5 1/2.
Before delving into the 2018 season, a confession in the name of transparency.
Decades ago, The AP’s night office was in The Arkansas Gazette and around 10:15 p.m. or so, an AP staffer would hang out in the newsroom waiting for the first edition. One evening in early January 1970, a Gazette staffer popped off about how the Minnesota Vikings would easily cover the 17-point point spread vs. Kansas City in Super Bowl IV.
A fan of the AFL challenged the declaration and the back and forth quickly deteriorated into a put up or shut up.
Despite the Chiefs’ 16-0 halftime lead and a 23-7 victory, the personal angst was not worth the $20. Since then, the only football wager with spendable currency involves an annual $10 investment in a season-long pool.
That admission on record, start with Arkansas’ over-under of 5 1/2. Published earlier, Arkansas is picked to finish 6-6, which leaves no choice but to make a lukewarm wager of $10 on the over.
The personal scenario for the Razorbacks includes sweeping the non-conference games, plus victories over Vanderbilt and Ole Miss. Ironically, the only over-under in the SEC lower than Arkansas’ is Vanderbilt’s 5, and one preseason publication identified the Commodores, the Rebels and the Razorbacks as Nos. 64, 63, and 62 among the 130 programs in the country.
Bovada.lv’s line on opening weekend games supports the premise that Vanderbilt and Ole Miss are the most vulnerable among Arkansas’ SEC opponents. Vanderbilt is a 6 1/2-point favorite over Middle Tennessee State and Ole Miss is a pick ‘em against Texas Tech, which has never been .500 in Big 12 play in five years under Kliff Kingsbury.
As for the SEC, Vegas is enamored with College Football Playoff finalists Alabama and Georgia, OK with Auburn and unimpressed with the others.
Starting with Arkansas’ eight SEC opponents, the mythical wagers:
—Alabama, 10.5, $30 over. Auburn and LSU may be the only teams on the schedule capable of beating the Crimson Tide. Whether the quarterback is Jalen Hurts or Tua Tagovailoa, Nick Saban is on the sideline and top-quality athletes are on the field.
—Auburn, 9, $10 under. Second-guessing Gus Malzahn’s $49 million contract could begin in mid-September after the Tigers play Jake Browning-led Washington and LSU. Down the line are Georgia and Alabama.
—LSU, 7.5, $20 over. Former LSU quarterback/new offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger will finally make good on promised use of three and four wideouts.
—Mississippi State, 8, $10 under. Dan Mullen is in Gainesville and quarterback Nick Fitzgerald is still rehabbing an injured leg.
—Texas A&M, 7, $20 over. The Aggies’ transformation into an SEC West contender under Jimbo Fisher will occur quickly.
—Ole Miss, 6, $10 under. Playing Vanderbilt helps, but the Rebels may not win another SEC game.
—Missouri, 6.5, $10 over. Under former Dallas Cowboys’ assistant Derek Dooley, Drew Lock could improve on the 44 TD passes he threw in 2017.
—Vanderbilt, 5, $10 under. The Commodores are 6-26 in the SEC under Derek Mason.
Elsewhere in the East:
—Georgia, 10.5, $20 under. Wearing a bullseye, a return to the CFP against an SEC schedule that includes LSU and Auburn from the West is a formidable assignment.
—Florida, 7, $20 over. Mullen is superb with quarterbacks and there are more athletes in Gainesville than in Starkville.
—South Carolina, 7, $10 over. Quarterback Jake Bentley should be even better than in 2017 when Gamecocks lost only to CFP teams during the final two months of the season.
—Kentucky, 6, $10 over. Under the radar, Mark Stoops has guided the Wildcats to consecutive 4-4 records in the SEC.
—Tennessee, 5.5, $10 over. The Vols of new coach Jeremy Pruitt can finish strong against Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt if they survive consecutive games vs. Georgia, Auburn and Alabama.