A deep love for golf often affects my analysis mode for other sports. I just can’t help it.
For instance, there is usually a lot of luck involved when someone wins on the PGA Tour. It’s especially true in majors like The Masters, where a few weeks ago Tiger Woods was given a clear shot at the title when others found the water over and over at the 12th hole.
Tiger saw the opening and put it over drive and took advantage. It’s like that a lot in major championships. In fact, Tiger has won quite a few when challengers fell back and all he had to do was play steady down the stretch.
Of course, there are exceptions to the rule like in 2000 when Tiger won the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach by 15 strokes. There was no luck there.
But more times than not, winners on the PGA Tour can look back at a shot during the final round that went astray but got a lucky bounce. Maybe a tee shot bounced off a tree and into the fairway, or hit a rock near a water hazard, only to bounce onto the green. It just as well could have bounced out of bounds in the first case, or into the water in the other.
The moral to the story: when you get a lucky break, take advantage.
That’s what Dave Van Horn seemed to be saying after the Arkansas baseball team rallied in the ninth inning and won in the 10th to earn a sweep of Tennessee on Sunday.
It was the second straight sweep of a top-10 RPI team for the Razorbacks. They’ve won seven straight SEC games to suddenly sit atop the SEC West by two games. They are tied with Vanderbilt for the overall lead.
Don’t look now, but the Hogs sit No. 3 in the NCAA RPI with three weekends left in the regular season. It’s the kind of ranking that would probably lock the Hogs in as a top-eight national seed for the NCAA Tournament, meaning they would play at home for both the regional and super regional rounds, just like last year.
It’s remarkable considering the Hogs lost a huge number of regulars – both in the field and on the mound – from the team that finished second at the 2018 College World Series.
The Hogs lost so many players from last year’s team that Van Horn told his team before the Christmas break “don’t expect to be ranked” when the first polls came out in January.
Yes, there were great returnees like Casey Martin, Heston Kjerstad, Dominic Fletcher, Isaiah Campbell and Matt Cronin, but Van Horn lost six players from one of his best lineups.
Gone were Carson Shaddy, Luke Bonfield, Eric Cole, Jax Biggers, Jared Gates and Grant Koch. That group hit 53 homers. Also gone were mound aces Blaine Knight and Kacey Murphy. Those two weekend starters combined for 22 victories. Solid junior relievers Barrett Loseke and Jake Reindl also were drafted and signed.
However, Van Horn hasn’t missed a beat in rebuilding another juggernaut lineup that seems to be getting better every weekend. True freshman Christian Franklin, redshirt freshman Jacob Nesbit and sophomore transfer Matt Goodheart have been terrific. And, the weekend rotation now looks solid with true freshmen Patrick Wicklander and Connor Noland.
The pitching has settled in under new coach Matt Hobbs, a late fall replacement for Wes Johnson, now the pitching coach for the Minnesota Twins. It’s the second straight year for Van Horn to replace an assistant. Hitting coach and recruiting coordinator Nate Thompson took over for now-Tennessee coach Tony Vitello prior to last season.
Don’t underestimate what Van Horn did in rebuilding his staff. Players say everything has rolled just like always under their veteran head coach.
This team – like many others Van Horn has had at Arkansas – is a reflection of its head coach. They play with grit and play hard. Van Horn’s motto is to win every pitch, every play and every inning. You can see those words taped to the dugout walls, home or away.
That’s what they’ve done, too. Just as they rallied to win in extra innings against Tennessee, they fought from big deficits to win on the road at Auburn and Vanderbilt earlier this season. They scored five in the ninth inning to win at Vanderbilt on Sunday, 14-12. The Commodores are No. 2 in the RPI and a good bet to be a national seed in the NCAA tournament, perhaps the top seed.
The Hogs have won five times in their last at-bat, three in walk-off fashion. Van Horn told his team after Friday night’s victory, when they rallied twice from a three-run deficit, they are one of his favorite teams. It’s because of their never-say-die grit.
Clearly, the often stoic Van Horn was excited after Sunday’s victory for the sweep. He sees a team that is playing with great confidence. It's what happens after you win a lot of close games, fighting back from big deficits. It's a team, like many coached by Van Horn, that takes advantage of breaks - although destroying good pitching with hit after hit isn't luck.
“I feel great about it, because you’ve got to take the wins when you can get them,” Van Horn said. “You never know when it’s going to flip on you. You have injuries, you have guys go into little slumps.”
Then, there are just plain bad breaks.
“Teams hit balls that are flares,” he said. “The game isn’t always fair. You can make pitches and you don’t get a call. You can hit the ball on the nose and it goes right at somebody. So, whenever you need a chance to win a game, you need to win it. Fortunately, we came back and won today.”
There was one of those bad luck calls on an obvious ball in the middle of the Tennessee game on Sunday. Dominic Fletcher took a pitch that was near the top button of his jersey that was called a strike. It would have meant a 3-0 count with the bases loaded when the Hogs were already up 2-0. He bounced into an inning-ending double play two pitches later.
Back to my theory on luck. First know that you have to be good, too.
You can get a lucky break, but not be good enough to take advantage. Tennessee took the lead on a cheap run in the eighth inning when Matt Cronin picked off a runner, but first baseman Trevor Ezell’s throw was wide to second. Ezell is still trying to work his arm into shape after shoulder surgery last year.
But the Vols weren’t good enough to take advantage of their good breaks. Obviously, they got one on the strike call against Fletcher. Later, ace UT closer Redmond Walsh gave up a solo homer to Franklin in the ninth, then lost his first game of the year when Casey Optiz cracked a walk-off double in the 10th inning.
It made a winner out of true freshman pitcher Elijah Trest, which brings me back to my good fortune theory.
The Hogs are lucky that Trest picked pitching in January after he thought he came to college to be a two-way player. He was hopelessly behind in development as a hitter and pitcher when the team came back from the holidays.
Trest was an outstanding two-way player at White Oak, Texas, when he earned East Texas player of the year honors. He pitched three no-hitters in the playoffs as a senior before losing in the state finals. He was 11-1 as a senior.
You can say that’s not luck; that’s Van Horn accurately forecasting to a player how he can best fit in on the team. But, not all players accept those words. It often takes a year or two for that message to sink in.
Slowly but surely the pieces are falling into place for these Razorbacks. Van Horn has put together a solid infield with four players all in new positions from last season.
Jack Kenley played shortstop and third base last year and is now at second base. Martin moved from third to shortstop. Nesbit redshirted last year, but he played shortstop in high school and practiced mainly at second in the fall. Ezell had never played first base before beginning to practice there in late January.
Kenley filled in superbly for Biggers at shortstop late last season. Most figured he’d slide into that spot this year, leaving Martin to play third or second base.
No, Van Horn told me in late fall. He wanted continuity for the 2020 season without having to reload at shortstop. Kenley was sure to be drafted after this season, but Martin would return.
“I don’t want a new shortstop three straight seasons,” Van Horn said then.
It makes sense, as most things that come out Van Horn’s mouth. He’s a straight shooter and a realist.
What all of this means is that you just keep grinding. Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint.
The Hogs hope to get pitcher Cody Scroggins back next weekend for their trip to Kentucky, which is struggling in a last place tie in the SEC with a 5-16 record. It will probably be a dogfight to open the series against UK starter Zack Thompson (4-1, 1.88 ERA). He’s limited hitters to a .179 batting average.
That probably doesn’t scare the Hogs after they destroyed one of the nation’s best staffs last weekend. Walsh, the UT closer, had not given up a homer in 26 innings before Franklin’s blast in the ninth.
The Franklin homer went into the short corner in right field, an odd corner in what otherwise is a symmetrical fence at Baum-Walker Stadium. While Vitello mentioned that it wasn’t a “cheapie” there were other thoughts that mentioned the short nature of that part of the fence.
Yes, that’s one of those lucky little nuances of a baseball season. As they say, enjoy it while it lasts. And, with Van Horn teams, they usually last quite awhile. He’s the kind of coach that takes advantage of the good breaks.
Will there be enough to take the Hogs all the way to Omaha? It’s too early to tell, but it’s also clear that these Hogs are good enough to do some damage when they get there. Many of the new pieces in the lineup feature flat swings that produce line drives that play well in a big park in Omaha.
They may know they are lucky, but they also know they are good, and confidence is an awesome thing in college baseball this time of the season.