LITTLE ROCK — Four plus 38 adds up to three-letter abbreviations for destinations, involve the postseason and beyond, and will disappoint many Arkansas basketball fans if they become reality.
The NIT is front and center for a team included in every NCAA Tournament projection only a few weeks ago and the NBA draft in late June has become a possibility for the team’s best scorer.
Revision of Arkansas’ postseason plans is the result of an SEC losing streak that was extended to four Saturday when Mississippi State's Abdul Ado put back a teammate’s miss with six-tenths of a second to play, and to five Tuesday with a loss at Florida. The Razorbacks are now 16-10 overall and 4-9 in SEC play.
In the 78-77 loss to Mississippi State, Mason Jones scored 38 — the fourth time in six games in which he scored 30 or more. Leading the SEC in scoring with an average of almost 21 points per games, the junior is a fixture in SEC Player of the Year conversations.
On a confidence meter, Arkansas being among 32 teams in the NIT next month is a nine and Jones being among 60 players drafted by the NBA in June is about half that.
Still, Razorback optimists cite a couple of paths to the NCAA Tournament:
—Capturing the SEC Tournament in Nashville by winning four or five games in as many days.
—Ending the regular season on a five-game winning streak and sneaking into the field with a 9-9 conference record.
Addressing a run in Nashville, note that Arkansas used essentially six players vs. Mississippi State. Regarding the second option, the Razorbacks have one game remaining against a team in the league’s top four and three other games vs. opponents that are two games ahead of the Razorbacks in the league standings.
Either is possible; neither is likely.
If Arkansas winds up in the NIT, don’t buy the spin that the postseason experience will provide positive carryover for next season. Recent history says otherwise:
—2019 NIT champion Texas has lost 11 this year, including by 29 to 14-game loser Iowa State on Saturday.
—2018 NIT champion Penn State was 14-18 last year.
—2017 NIT champion TCU was 9-9 in the Big 12 the next year.
—2016 NIT champion George Washington was 20-15 the next year.
—2015 NIT champion Stanford was 15-15 the next year, including 8-10 in the Pac-12.
That said, an NIT bid raises the perennial question about preference — losing in the first round of the NCAA or winning the NIT. Still, such an invite would be embraced in Eric Musselman’s first year if not for the auspicious start to the season.
Jones’ status might be unclear until long after the postseason. He has until late April to declare his eligibility for the draft and, even then, he can return to school if he has not proved himself at NBA pre-draft camps and individual workouts.
At 6-foot-5, he can improvise his way to the basket, but, even though he has been a prolific scorer, he has made less than one-third of his 3-point attempts including 3-of-22 in his last four games.
If confident that he will be drafted, nobody should blame him for leaving school. After all, when it was reported in April 2018 that he was going to visit Fayetteville, the only other offer mentioned was from the University of Central Arkansas. And, another year as a Razorback would not necessarily raise his draft stock. Some experts contend Daniel Gafford would have been drafted in the first round if he had left school after one year. Instead, he went high in the second round after a second year at Arkansas.
If Jones and Isaiah Joe remain Razorbacks, Reggie Chaney continues to improve, 7-foot-3 Connor Vanover provides a true inside presence, and the four committed members of ESPN’s top 100 contribute as expected, an NCAA Tournament bid will only be the beginning of expectations next season.