In college football, the more you know, the easier it is to make predictions. Never has there been a time anyone has known less than the start of the 2020 season.
There are more secrets than ever as No. 4 Georgia opens the season at rebuilding Arkansas on Saturday at 3 p.m. at Reynolds Razorback Stadium.
There is a greater chance of the favorite failing to match expectations than at any time in my 50 years of covering college football. No one can say for sure if games are going to be played or who will play in those games.
Georgia is a 24-½ point favorite for good reason, but there are questions, especially on offense where a running quarterback may be tasked with leading a passing offense.
The 2020 season has always been one big question mark and the fact that a few leagues have begun to play doesn’t change that. That the SEC announced a schedule that has two open dates for possible make-up games emphasizes that question mark.
Coaches have always worried about depth, but mostly they are thinking about the need for competent players in the two deep. How deep must a team go from the start to finish of game week? Covid-19 tests can wipe out vast numbers of players.
Injuries are always possible, but players could be in quarantine just because of who stopped to say hello in a parking lot.
There have been questions about the virus in almost every interview done by players and coaches since the pandemic ended the possibility of spring football practice in the middle of March. First-year Arkansas coach Sam Pittman said the virus tests – now at three times per week – produce constant worries.
“It’s difficult,” Pittman said. “You test Monday and then you have to wait on the results (to plan practices). It wears on you. Do you have it, much less, do the players have it?”
It produces constant pressure in how practices are split with those that are available.
“Are you getting a third-team guy enough reps?” Pittman said. “He may be a starter. We are doing a lot of two-spot reps.”
However, in the strangest of twists, that uncertainty for Pittman might provide just the confidence in my prediction of the coming season. Not only do I think the Hogs will end their SEC losing streak – now at 19 – but also I think it’s probable that they win two or three.
Part of it is confidence in Pittman and an experienced staff led by coordinators Barry Odom (defense), Kendal Briles (offense) and Scott Fountain (special teams). This has a chance to be the best Arkansas coaching staff in decades.
Danny Ford’s 1995 staff is the last that comes close. The 1995 SEC West champs featured Mike Bender, Louis Campbell, Joe Lee Dunn, Rockey Felker, Fitz Hill, David Mitchell, Charley North, Joe Pate and Jim Washburn.
That’s not to say that either the ’95 group or the current staff compares to some of the wonderful staffs hired by Frank Broyles. But this group is light years ahead of what the Hogs have had of late. I think Broyles would like this bunch to be coaching on the field named after him.
There is more to like than the coordinators. I like the makeup of the line coaches, Brad Davis on offense and Derrick LeBlanc on defense. Odom and Briles have hand picked other members of their respective staffs with background in their schemes.
As everyone knows, there has been little access to watching practices and there have been no face-to-face interviews of anyone since just after signing day. But there are leaks now and then. All suggest that the staff has bonded and players are in lock step with them.
It’s not been easy to develop that bond, one of the keys to developing a team. Pittman acknowledged as much this week.
“In our Zoom era (of Internet-based teaching sessions) that we are all in, it’s made it difficult to get close to your players,” Pittman said.
But it has not lowered standards or expectations, the new coach emphasized. He was clear on what he wanted from his players in the opening game when he fielded questions during his first radio show last week.
“We talked to them about: If we have our fans come to the game and they leave, what do you want them to say about us?” Pittman said. “It would be execution, it would physical, how hard we play, how disciplined we are — I didn’t say it, (the players) did.
“We’re trying to breed confidence in our team, but the fundamental, sound values in your program are what get us to be able to compete with Georgia; that’s running to the ball, tackling, blocking, physicalness, discipline. All those things we have to have and we’re practicing that way.
“We don’t take reps at practice. These are game situations to us…. Every play has to be like it’s going to be in the football game.”
Those are the same expectations they’ve had at Georgia under Kirby Smart. Pittman knows that since he was part of that staff for the last four years.
Expectations are that Smart has a team capable of winning the national championship. For sure, the Bulldogs feature an aggressive defense with the speed and size to dominate almost anyone in the nation, much less an Arkansas team trying to avoid a 20th straight SEC loss.
Offensively, the Bulldogs are rebuilding, especially at quarterback. Gone is three-year starter Jake Fromm. The likely starter is redshirt freshman D’Wan Mathis. The 6-6, 205-pounder is more of a runner than a passer, interesting because new offensive coordinator Todd Monken wants to run an “Air Raid” type offense with lots of passing.
But the best teams don’t always win in college football. Upsets can and do happen every week, especially in season openers.
In fact, there has been a handful this season as the Big 12 ran into trouble two weeks ago. Kansas State lost to Arkansas State, Kansas fell to Coastal Carolina and Iowa State was beaten by Louisiana-Lafayette.
It’s with that thought that we begin our deep dive into the keys for an Arkansas upset. They start with special teams.
Kicking Game
There is reason to believe that some of the problems that helped end the Chad Morris era won’t happen under Pittman. One of his first hires was close friend Fountain, his next-door neighbor in Athens.
Putting Fountain in charge of special teams smacks of the winning teams at Arkansas under Broyles and later under Lou Holtz and Ken Hatfield. The Hogs were always good in special teams under those three coaches. There was lots of All-America punters, kickers and return specialists in those eras.
Early upsets usually feature big plays in the kicking game. Can Treylon Burks wiggle free on a punt or kickoff return? Can the Hogs gain some yardage in the punt game? George Caratan and Sam Loy have battled throughout preseason practices. Both are capable of providing improvement.
Smart knows to stress those areas, too. He said, “The early games I’ve watched this year have all had lots of kick returns for touchdowns or a blocked kick.”
The Bulldogs replaced Fountain with Alabama strength coach Scott Cochran, on the field for the first time in his career. A former NBA strength coach, Cochran has to revamp almost all of the special teams. The main exception is at punter where Jake Camarda returns after averaging 46.8 yards, second in UGA history.
Quarterbacks
The story in this game is Feleipe Franks, the senior transfer from Florida coming off reconstructive ankle surgery. He hasn’t played since a horrific injury against Kentucky last season.
Franks has been elected one of four team captains at Arkansas after displaying incredible leadership over the winter and summer. Coaches and teammates rave about the way Franks has taken control of this team despite a lack of spring practices.
One thing to note, Franks has not had much success against Georgia. He completed 13 of 21 for 105 yards in his last try against the UGA defense, a 36-17 Florida loss. The year before Franks was worse, a 7 of 19 day with just 30 yards in a 42-7 loss.
It reminded of what I saw the Georgia do to former Fayetteville star Taylor Powell in his first start at Missouri last fall. Powell, under constant pressure, was 10 of 22 for 84 yards in a 27-0 loss.
The plus for the Hogs here is that Franks is experienced. Mathis is not. The Michigan native enrolled at Georgia in January 2019, but had to redshirt last season because of surgery to remove a brain cyst.
It’s not clear if Southern Cal transfer JT Daniels will be cleared to play. He’s coming off knee surgery in the 2019 season opener that shortened his sophomore season.
Defense
This is where the Bulldogs have a massive advantage. They return eight starters from a unit that led the nation in scoring defense (12.6 points per game) and rushing defense (74.6 yards per game). They allowed only two rushing touchdowns for the season to lead the nation and set a school record with the lowest SEC total since 1970 (by LSU).
Meanwhile, the Hogs are trying to rebuild what has been a bad defense for most of the last five seasons. The telling stat is rushing TDs allowed. The 2014 Arkansas defense that shut out LSU and Ole Miss in back-to-back games was stout. But here are the numbers from the last five years that turn your stomach, rushing TDs allowed:
2019 – 29
2018 – 25
2017 – 28
2016 – 39
2015 – 25
That 2016 total set a school record for most rushing touchdowns allowed. The recipe for beating Arkansas the last few years has been simple: just hand the ball off.
Toughness
This goes well with the last area, stopping the run. Of course, you can lump that in with offensive line play.
One of my coaching friends gave me the dreaded four-letter football word for the description you never want for your team: soft.
That’s Pittman’s top goal, is to make this team tough. It’s doubtful he’s had enough time to change that with no spring practice and only two preseason scrimmages.
It’s believed that Pittman has never been associated with a soft team in his long coaching career. He preaches toughness and prides himself in developing linemen in the run game.
LeBlanc’s defensive lines at Kentucky were known for their toughness. Davis is a Pittman protégé and has always preached toughness. Can the Hogs do an about face in such short order with almost no scrimmage time? It would seem doubtful.
There was a time in a practice two weeks ago when he didn’t like the physical nature of a young blocker.
“I’m watching you and you haven’t hit anyone yet,” Pittman said. “The only way you become physical in games is to be physical in practice.”
The tone was dead serious. Pittman got what he wanted on the next play and rewarded the player with heavy praise.
Pittman said there is only one-way to coach and that’s with heavy praise if things are done right. But there is no room for praise when it isn’t right. That breeds false confidence.
It reminded me of a winter interview, the first one-on-one I had with Pittman. It was supposed to preview the spring practice that never happened. Pittman was asked about the No. 1 thing he wanted to develop.
“It’s the same thing we say all the time,” he said. “It’s toughness. There is mental toughness, there is physical toughness, there is attitude, there is the way you compete.
“We talk to them all the time about those things. We are trying to relate it on and off the field.
“We will treat them like a man. I want the development toward a young man.
“Whatever I say I want it to be the truth. Kids are smart.”
So are fans. They’ll know a tough team when they see it.
Discipline
It’s believed that Pittman runs a tight ship. Players said they saw him raise his voice often in the brief time they’ve been in the Fred Smith Football Center over the last nine months.
Burks spoke of a Zoom meeting on special teams last spring when Pittman stepped in after Fountain asked a question and no one seemed to know the answer.
“We’ve heard Coach Pittman change his voice when he wasn’t happy with something,” Burks said. “He got after us. We all knew that he wanted us to take special teams seriously.”
Safety First
It’s the last line of defense, but it’s one of the things I’ll track early in the game. Odom coaches the safeties for the Hogs, along with coordinating the defense. It’s been awhile since the Hogs have had good safety play.
It should be noted that Georgia’s safeties have been among the nation’s best during the Smart era. They graduated first-team All-American J.R. Reed from last year’s team, but return Richard LeCounte, perhaps headed for another All-America season.
The Hogs have not had great play from safeties, but may have a budding star in redshirt freshman Jalen Catalon. Out for about two weeks in the summer with minor knee surgery, Catalon is trying to bounce back from major knee reconstruction that ended his high school senior season.
Catalon has been praised for his leadership and is mature beyond his age. Odom liked him so much as a sophomore in high school that he extended an offer as Missouri head coach.
Those who have watched practices marvel at the way Catalon always ends up around the football, or comes up with it. Could he be like the Honey Badger, the great safety who dominated games at LSU and now leads the Kansas City Chiefs secondary?
Offensive Line
It’s such an interesting dynamic that Pittman coached Georgia the last four years and now has to play against a host of superb talents in the Georgia front. While talented, it’s not an experienced UGA front. The Bulldogs had three O-linemen taken in last year’s NFL draft.
If you want to pick out a key area, watch the centers. Georgia’s Trey Hill is a preseason All-America candidate. The Hogs counter with converted guard Ricky Stromberg, turning heads with what has seemed like a seamless conversion to the snapper.
Stromberg came to Arkansas as a lightly recruited 266-pounder from Tulsa Union. He’s closer to 305 now and is as intense as he is smart. While the overall look of the Hogs last year smacked of softness, Stromberg was never that. He’s a fighter and features a toughness that allowed him to play well at right guard.
The Jack
A key matchup will probably be how UA left tackle Myron Cunningham holds up against a furious Georgia pass rush. Can he contain the likes of outside linebacker Azeez Ojulari, a cat quick 6-3, 240-pound redshirt sophomore? Ojulari led the Bulldogs with 5.5 sacks last season.
The Bulldogs list Ojulari as the Jack position, a hybrid end/linebacker. It’s a similar role that the Hogs will give their Jack, a two-headed rotation with Dorian Gerald and Mataeo Soli.
Odom likes to utilize a 4-2-5 scheme that rolls between a three and four-man front. It’s a four-man front when Gerald and/or Soli put their hand on the ground.
The way Gerald and Soli perform might be the key to the success of the defense. A lack of a pass rush has been obvious over the last few seasons. Both Gerald and Soli battled injuries last season.
Gerald, believed to be the most athletic linemen on the team, didn’t make it halftime of the opener last year before sustaining a strained neck artery that put his career in jeopardy. Soli took over in his spot despite breaking his hand and playing with a soft cast for half of the season.
Those two have the speed to change things with the pass rush and have the ability to chase Mathis in the open field, something that might be needed when the pocket breaks down.
Tailbacks
Georgia has featured some of the nation’s best tailbacks for many seasons. Everyone remembers Herschel Walker, but Nick Chubb, Garrison Hearst, Sony Michel, D’Andre Swift and Todd Gurley are some others who have wrecked SEC defenses of late.
The Bulldogs are still talented there. Zamir White is the top returnee, but James Cook and Kenny McIntosh are also solid players. There will be no big drop at that position.
But the Hogs can counter with comparable talent. Rakeem Boyd might be the best player on the team. Arizona State transfer Trelon Smith was the rage of the 2019 fall camp, even though he wasn’t eligible to play.
I’ll go back to a spring assessment of those two UA tailbacks from Briles.
Of Boyd, he said, “He’s big, square-shouldered and has a lot of ability. He has breakaway speed and is tough mentally. Our strength staff has done a great job with him, too. I’ll call Trelon a jitterbug. You can’t tackle what you can’t touch. How we use them both together is a challenge I’m looking forward to when we finally get on the field.”
Thankfully, the Hogs are finally on the field. If Boyd and Smith have some success Saturday, the Pittman era might be off to a rousing success.
As it is, success might be measured in small victories. Did they manage to utilize Boyd in something that was talked about when he decided to return for one more year? Can he become better in the passing game? Will he get more touches on swing passes and screens? Has his pass blocking improved?
Game Management
What will Pittman be like in the way he manages a game? He’s been a college assistant at the Division I level for most of his career. He had a couple of years each as the head coach in junior college and the high school level.
He seems confident that he can handle the job. In a winter interview, Pittman said he always thought he’d be a better head coach than a coordinator, the reason he turned down some SEC coordinator jobs during his four years at Georgia.
It’s always different as the head coach. Pittman said the last week has been spent going over special situations and special teams situations. Can the Hogs get all of those correct with so little scrimmage time?
Can they play clean on both sides of the ball? How will ball security work out with so few scrimmages? How will that play out in tackling?
“We really only scrimmaged twice,” Pittman said. “I think ball security with Franks improved from our first scrimmage. We may not have scrimmaged, but we’ve tackled a lot in one-on-one situations.”