Commentary

SEC openers typically foretell Razorbacks' place

Arkansas running back Rakeem Boyd (5) is tackled by an Auburn defender during a game Saturday, Sept. 22, 2018, in Auburn, Ala.

LITTLE ROCK — Anticipating Ole Miss will finish at or near the bottom of the SEC West, note that history says Saturday’s outcome in Oxford will provide an accurate read on the relationship between the Razorbacks and Rebels in the final league standings.

Since joining the SEC in 1992, only once have the Razorbacks lost their first conference game and finished ahead of that team in the standings. By the same token, the Razorbacks have never finished behind a team they beat in their SEC opener.

Detailing the math, Arkansas is 10-17 in SEC season openers and the exception to the rule occurred in 2015 when the UA lost to Texas A&M in overtime, but won four of its last five SEC games - including two in overtime - and finished 5-3. The Aggies were 4-4.

That was one of three times that Arkansas opened the conference 0-1 and went on to better .500 in league play. The other times began with a loss to Alabama.

The Razorbacks started with a 30-12 loss to the Crimson Tide in 2002 and a 38-14 loss in 2011, but finished 5-3 and 6-2. Alabama won the SEC West with 6-2 in ’02 (the Crimson Tide were ineligible to play in the SEC Championship Game that season, opening the door for the Razorbacks to play Georgia instead) and was second to LSU at 7-1 in ’11.

On the other side of the ledger, a win in the SEC opener does not necessarily signal a big year for Arkansas. In three of the winning years the Razorbacks wound up tied with the team they beat — 2-6 with Alabama in 1997 and 3-5 with Alabama in 2000 and 2004.

By the way, since beating Georgia in 2010, the Razorbacks are 0-4 vs. Texas A&M and 0-2 vs. both Alabama and Auburn in SEC openers.

Although ancient history, surely the material is as relevant to predicting the Razorbacks’ season-long record as projections about Saturday’s game based on Arkansas 20, Portland State 13, and Memphis 15, Ole Miss 10.

For starters, Portland State is an FCS team that was 5-19 in the Big Sky Conference the past three years and Memphis is up-and-coming FBS team that won at least eight in each of Mike Norvell’s first three seasons.

Also in play is the long-held theory that a team’s biggest improvement occurs between the opener and the second game. Trying to attract wagers on both teams, oddsmakers digested the info, factored in the home field, and established Ole Miss as a seven-point favorite.

That said, since grisly details of the Portland State game have been rehashed ad nauseam by the media and fans, a personal list of disappointments from last week is light on specifics:

—The victory was not secure until a last-minute interception.

—Quarterback play was so-so at best.

—Very few pass attempts were downfield, only one of the 18 completions netted more than 20 yards, and several passes were dropped.

—Punts resulted in touchbacks when the coverage team failed to react to well-executed kicks by Sam Loy.

—Nick Starkel’s limited snaps, at least partly his price for overlooking a defender in the middle of the field and throwing an interception near the end zone.

—Clock mismanagement late in the half.

Most of those are mental and can be fixed; lack of dominance by the offensive line raises other questions.

But, Arkansas coach Chad Morris’ bottom-line assessment is correct: “There’s no such thing as a bad win.”

Considering last week’s results, Saturday’s game feels like a must-win for the bowl hopes of both teams.

Watching the Rebels and Tigers before the Arkansas kickoff, the reputation of a coach and a quarterback suffered a bit.

Synonymous with creativity, new offensive coordinator Rich Rodriguez called the 26 plays that netted 42 yards in the first half and a four-quarter total of 80 yards rushing

Handling the offense, five-star redshirt freshman quarterback Matt Corral via USC and Florida, was 9-of-19, his nine carries netted 17 yards, and Ole Miss coach Matt Luke said later that the Rebels must “settle him down.” Luke also cited the lack of production on early downs, a major factor in the Razorbacks converting only 5-of-15 third downs.

Desperate to cite a positive for fans of Arkansas and Ole Miss, it could have been worse:

—Playing at home in front of more than 85,000, Tennessee lost to 26-point underdog Georgia State 38-30. The Vols had won 30 straight home games against non-Power 5 opponents and it was the Panthers’ first victory over a Power 5 team since the Sun Belt Conference member launched its program in 2010.

—Led by transfer quarterback Kelly Bryant, Missouri cranked out 537 yards, but lost to Wyoming 37-31. Three Missouri turnovers vs. zero for the Cowboys contributed mightily to the Mountain West team’s first victory over a Power 5 team since Craig Bohl took over as the Cowboys’ head coach in 2014.

Barring a similar discrepancy in turnovers in Oxford, offensive line play is likely to determine the winner.