The Razorbacks snapped a five-game losing streak on Saturday, and suddenly talking heads on ESPN and other places have them nearing the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Optimism is great, but University of Arkansas fans do not need to get their hopes up just yet. At 5-9 in the SEC and tied for 10th with Missouri, the Razorbacks have a lot of work to do.
Granted, their NET ranking is the sixth best in the SEC, but that’s just part of the criteria the NCAA selection committee uses.
Of the Razorbacks’ four remaining games, three are against teams ahead of them in the SEC standings. One, LSU, has a better NET ranking. On Tuesday, Arkansas was No. 45 while LSU was No. 30.
Every win helps at least a little, but a loss to Georgia next week would be devastating.
The Hogs’ final four begins tonight with Tennessee in Walton Arena. The Volunteers beat the Razorbacks 82-61 just 15 days ago. That was perhaps the Razorbacks’ worst game of the season.
Then they are at Georgia. The Bulldogs are decidedly better at home than on the road.
Arkansas is then back home for its biggest game down the stretch against LSU, which was ranked before consecutive losses to Alabama and Kentucky took care of that.
The Tigers beat the Hogs 79-77 in Baton Rouge in early January. The Hogs were outrebounded 53-24.
The season finale is at Texas A&M, which had won three in a row entering Tuesday’s game against Kentucky.
The good news for the Hogs, who could finish 9-9 in SEC play by sweeping these final four games and most likely be firmly in the NCAA Tournament, is that they will catch Texas A&M after the Aggies have played Kentucky, at LSU and Auburn.
All four games are winnable for the Hogs, but they won’t be easy.
A strong finish by Indiana and Georgia Tech also will help Arkansas.
The Hoosiers are at Purdue and Illinois, then finish with Minnesota and Wisconsin at home. Georgia Tech has Clemson twice, and home games with Miami and Pittsburgh.
Road victories over Indiana and Georgia Tech have boosted Arkansas’ NET ranking.
If the Razorbacks take care of business the next two weeks, they should move ahead of Tennessee and Alabama in the SEC standings, and their NET ranking would improve.
What they need is to go into the SEC Tournament looking to improve their seeding, not make the field.
Something that strongly favors the Razorbacks and the SEC is the parity in college basketball right now. While the Big Ten is probably going to lead the way with 10 bids, the ACC will get three and maybe just a fourth. The ACC is usually good for twice that.
There are 31 automatic berths, and 21 of those come from one-bid leagues.
Teams like UALR can win the league and still not make the field without winning their conference tournament.
Then there are 37 at-large bids for the remaining 10 conferences.
What yours truly would like to see is the NCAA expand the field to 96 teams. Make the regular season important again by making the winner get the automatic bid, and everyone else is playing for a spot in the conference tournaments.
No regular-season champion is going to risk its seeding by throwing a game to get another league team in. Besides, midmajors will get a lot more berths by enlarging the field.
In fact, the emphasis needs to be on that.
As for the Razorbacks, they have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament, but there is a lot of work to do. It starts tonight in Walton Arena.