FAYETTEVILLE — Arkansas opens the 2020-21 season on Wednesday against Mississippi Valley State. Here are 15 predictions for the upcoming year:
Connor Vanover will shoot at least 38 percent from 3
To some, this figure may be a bit ambitious, and perhaps it is. But Eric Musselman and his coaching staff are fully invested in maximizing Vanover’s effectiveness when he is in the lineup. The 7-3 forward is in line for a healthy number of 3-point attempts as the trail big in Arkansas’ transition offense and, with quality ball movement, clean perimeter looks in the halfcourt are likely. He shot 35.5 percent from distance as a true freshman at Cal. Following a development year, it is not at all out of the realm of possibility we see an improvement in this area. It will be interesting to keep an eye on his usage rate and track which areas of the floor Vanover is at his best. He has missed a number of practices this preseason because of an illness and dropped a good bit of the weight he added in the last year, so he may not be as sharp as he and the coaching staff would like right away. But he will fall into a rhythm sooner rather than later.
JD Notae will be among the team’s top two leading scorers
Justin Smith, the graduate transfer from Indiana, has seen and played a lot of basketball in his college career. JD Notae jumped out to him in preseason workouts. The Jacksonville transfer has a natural ability to score, get downhill and put defenders on their heels. Musselman is of the belief that Notae’s wrist injury from this summer will not hamper him, and after 2-3 weeks of practices and workouts he would return to form. That is a big positive. Notae is said to be working at three different positions, sharpening his skills as a facilitator and scorer. During his sit-out year and following the 2019-20 season, his aim was fine-tuning his perimeter jumper and his shot off the bounce. Three days per week this spring he trained with Marquis Gilstrap, a fellow Covington, Ga., native and former Iowa State standout. Creating space, putting defenders on his hip and getting his shot off in those instances was a priority, too. He could very well be one of the primary offensive options in late-game situations and put together an impressive season.
Justin Smith will lead the Razorbacks in rebounding and near the team lead in minutes played
The latter will aid the former, obviously, but all indications are that Justin Smith will be a staple in Arkansas’ success this season. Since the Razorbacks began workouts in late July, he has been the most consistent player in uniform. You have probably heard that Smith led Indiana in minutes played last season, and that speaks volumes about his production, steady nature and levelheadedness. Musselman likes the way Smith rebounds at his position. Last season, he finished with at least two offensive rebounds in 18 games and three-plus 12 times. As a freshman, he was No. 6 in Big Ten play in offensive rebound rate, per KenPom, and top 20 as a sophomore. On the defensive glass, he grabbed five-plus rebounds in eight games. Another plus: With Smith on the floor and Hoosiers star forward Trayce Jackson-Davis (8.4 rpg) sitting in Big Ten play in 2019-20, Indiana allowed opponents to rebound only 22.5 percent on their misses. Then consider his improved jumpshot, defensive ability and desire to do the little things. He will make it tough for Musselman to pull him off the floor.
Desi Sills will lead Arkansas in transition scoring
Mason Jones was undeniably a menace in transition last season for Arkansas. He was arguably at his best — and he did a lot of things extremely well — with the floor tilted and ball in hand getting to the rim. According to HoopLens analytics, Jones posted a PAM (number additional points a player scores when compared with what an average player would have scored with those shot attempts) of 32.1 at the rim in transition. Really impressive. Desi Sills (20.3) was No. 2 on the team in that regard. Jones attacked the rim fearlessly, and Sills certainly does that, too. It is difficult to predict whether or not Sills will score 60 times at the rim again, as he did last season, but we know he will not lose his aggressiveness. In a broken floor, he plays some of his best basketball, and he is a danger to opponents both at the rim and on the perimeter.
Moses Moody will make a run at the All-SEC freshman team
It is abundantly clear, even after only watching the Razorbacks’ intrasquad scrimmage and limited practice footage, that Moses Moody is going to be an integral part of Musselman’s second team at Arkansas. He was very impressive in the Red-White game, scoring 22 points on 50 percent from the floor to go with six rebounds and four assists. Musselman, too, loved that the freshman did not turn the ball over in his 29 minutes on the floor. Moody’s perimeter jumper is smooth as silk, he has a court savvy that is pretty rare in first-year players and his understanding of the game on both ends of the floor is off the charts. The Razorbacks will be counting on Moody to score from the get-go, and all indications are that he will be ready for the moment. It will not come as a surprise to see Moody featured offensively in some of Arkansas’ lineups. He is a player who can and will score at all three levels. Moody flashed a solid midrange game this preseason, too, and has received rave reviews from Musselman for his ability to finish off offensive rebounds.
Vance Jackson will hit at least 45 3-pointers
Vance Jackson can be a difference-maker for the Razorbacks. At 6-9, he is among Arkansas’ greatest perimeter threats entering the season. Over his college career, he has knocked down 48, 54 and 50 3-pointers, so it is very possible for Jackson to near or surpass these marks in 2020-21, even with a 27-game schedule. Last season at New Mexico, he made 50 of 144 attempts over 27 games. Personally, I am big on Jackson’s potential and believe he could blossom into one of the Razorbacks’ stars if things go well. He has been characterized in the past as a player who has diva-like qualities, but I think Jackson is locked in for his final college go-around (possibly) and Musselman can push the right buttons to keep him engaged should his play falter at times. Arkansas’ staff will certainly find ways to get the most out of a very talented player.
Jalen Tate will be one of the Razorbacks’ top assists players
It is difficult to know exactly what useful information can be gleaned from an intrasquad scrimmage, but one part of Jalen Tate’s Red-White game performance, I believe, is here to stay. He will be a terrific facilitator for the Razorbacks. He finished with a game-high eight assists on Nov. 12, all the while not committing a turnover. That sounds like the line of a guard who can and will play for Musselman any day. In his final two seasons at Northern Kentucky, Tate was not just a strong defender. He assisted on 26.6 percent of the Norse’s scores when on the floor last season, according to KenPom, and tallied 10 games of four-plus assists. In 2018-19, Tate’s assist rate spiked to 31.1 percent, which ranked 62nd nationally. He is a selfless player, and one who is easy for others to play with.
Jaylin Williams will start a few games
Entering the Red-White game, Jaylin Williams had been Arkansas’ most consistent and durable player at the 5 spot. He did not make the first impression he would have liked in the scrimmage, but he will continue to grow and bring a number of valuable traits to the floor. And it is those traits – screen setting, court vision, perimeter ability — that can potentially push him into a key role off the bench or land him in the starting lineup in some games. I believe Williams can be the Razorbacks’ best passing big since Trey Thompson. And if he can adapt to the speed of the game and size of opposing forwards somewhat soon, he can make a run at playing the second-most minutes among Arkansas’ freshmen. He has a very bright future, and it will be fun to track his development.
KK Robinson will be one of Arkansas’ most efficient players
Eighteen points on 8 of 11 shooting and 2 of 5 from 3-point range. That was KK Robinson’s final line in Arkansas’ intrasquad scrimmage. Quite the impressive start for the freshman. He finished 4 of 4 at the rim in the game and also knocked down 4 of 7 jumpers, including 2 of 3 triples on the left wing and a pair of midrange looks on the left side of the floor. Musselman said Robinson played better in the game than he had been in practices. The only knock on the guard was four turnovers. He can be an efficient player. Jalen Tate earlier in the preseason commended Robinson’s understanding of shot selection and how to get to his spots on the floor, which can be challenging for players making the transition from high school to college. Tate has been around the game a while, and he likes what he sees there.
The Razorbacks will be a much better corner 3-point shooting team than in 2019-20
It would be difficult to shoot a lower clip from those two areas of the floor, considered among the most efficient looks in basketball, than last season. That is the honest reasoning behind this prediction. The Razorbacks made 34 of 106 attempts (32.1 percent) in the left corner and a dreadful 13 of 70 (18.6 percent) in the right corner. For Musselman, it was difficult to explain why his team was far more effective on the wings and center of the floor yet struggled from the corners. Desi Sills is the only player on the 2020-21 roster who attempted a corner 3 with the Razorbacks last season. He knocked down a team-high 13 left-corner 3s on 34 attempts, and was second on the team with four right-corner 3s on nine tries. Between Sills, Vance Jackson, Moses Moody, JD Notae, KK Robinson and others, there is very little doubt we will see an uptick in success here.
Arkansas’ 3-point defense will take a dip
This prediction comes from the same vein as Arkansas improving its corner 3-point shooting. The Razorbacks were outstanding defending the 3 in 2019-20, finishing second nationally at 27.2 percent, according to KenPom analytics. It is likely opponents find a bit more success beyond the arc, and to this point in the preseason, perimeter defense is something of a concern for Musselman. A key reason the Razorbacks found success here last season was they played with high hands and consistently clouded shooters’ sightline to the rim. Given Arkansas’ added size on the interior, if its length can be disruptive beyond the arc this could be a scary team defensively.
The Razorbacks will rank in the top 25 nationally in turnover rate
With so many new players on the roster, we could certainly see turnover issues pop up every so often, but taking care of the ball has been a hallmark of Musselman-coached teams. Finding corrections and fixes with rosters with a number of new faces is nothing new to him. Outside of his first season at Nevada, each of Musselman’s groups have finished in the top 25 in this category, and in the Wolf Pack’s Sweet Sixteen run in 2018, they led the country in turnover rate (13.5 percent). This season, Musselman is equipped with enough depth to sit turnover-prone players.
Arkansas will win 8 games in nonconference play
On paper, challenges on Arkansas’ nonconference schedule seem to be few and far between. The Razorbacks do not play a team ranked inside the KenPom top 100 until they travel to Tulsa on Dec. 8, and Oklahoma State in late January figures to be the team’s toughest test outside of SEC play. The average KenPom ranking of Arkansas’ first eight opponents is 187. I feel confident the Razorbacks find ways to win those games. Winning at Tulsa would provide the group a confidence boost and could prove to be a valuable win at season’s end.
This team will not lose a weekend home game
Under former coach Mike Anderson, the Razorbacks were stellar in Bud Walton Arena on Saturdays and Sundays. Arkansas won 6 of 8 weekend home games in Year 1 under Eric Musselman, falling only to Kentucky and Mississippi State. Arkansas’ 2020-21 schedule features eight more Saturday/Sunday home games, and there is a solid chance, I believe, this group can run the table. Those games are: North Texas, Lipscomb, UCA, Oral Roberts, Missouri, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU. The Tigers pose the biggest challenge in the final home game of the regular season. Holding serve in home games, regardless if there are 19,000 in attendance or 4,000, will go a long way in the Razorbacks potentially earning an NCAA Tournament berth.
Arkansas will make the NCAA Tournament
Returning to the postseason for the first time since 2018 is the expectation for this team for many people. I have the Razorbacks winning each of their home games and three on the road, putting them at 19-8 entering the SEC Tournament. Arkansas’ road wins will come at Tulsa, Vanderbilt and Missouri. I am of the belief that the experience on the Razorbacks’ roster is going to prove to be very beneficial in a few close games. It will help hold things together, too, when adversity hits, which is inevitable. This group will be able to score the ball effectively. How successful it becomes, I think, largely hinges on whether it can find cohesion on the defensive end.