Arkansas football forecast

No Army can stop Arkansas from winning bowl game

A pair of Arkansas football players ready for a play during a preseason practice on Sept. 14, 2020 in Fayetteville.

FAYETTEVILLE — The Razorback Forecast dares to get chesty here in mid-September.

Sure, there is the lingering, gloomy coronavirus pandemic draped over not only our college football universe but also the globe.

And Arkansas football, trying to overcome three dreadful seasons in a row, got kicked in the teeth by the SEC scheduler, who added No. 4 Georgia and No. 8 Florida onto what was already a difficult conference-only slate for the Hogs. The gifted games presented first-year Coach Sam Pittman with what has been rated the toughest schedule in the country.

Welcome to the SEC head coaching fraternity Sam!

Here’s your 10-game schedule with games against all seven SEC teams ranked in the preseason Associated Press Top 25. Good luck!

Yet the Forecast is in a different, perhaps semi-gloating mindset today. That’s because we looked it up and in this space last year the Forecast correctly predicted the outcome of eight of the Razorbacks’ games. That’s an 8-4 record. Outback Bowl territory when translated to SEC-speak. Outside of the College Football Playoff and just short of the New Year’s Six bowls, but solidly in the second tier of the SEC postseason pecking order.

Every missed prediction was an Arkansas loss. Where the Forecast saw Razorback wins over San Jose State, Mississippi State, Western Kentucky and a season ending victory over Missouri to get the Hogs “bowl eligible” at 6-6, Coach Chad Morris’ group veered hard from the right lane straight into the breakdown lane, conked out at 2-10.

The Forecast saw clearly on these predictions: Texas A&M 29, Arkansas 27 (actual score: Aggies 31-27); Kentucky 28, Arkansas 21 (actual score: Wildcats 24-20); Alabama 52, Arkansas 16 (actual score: Bama 48-7).

The Forecast was fuzzier on these: Arkansas 44, San Jose State 10 (31-24 Spartans in an absolute shocker); Arkansas 38, Mississippi State 31 in overtime (Bulldogs 54-24); Arkansas 31, Western Kentucky 16 (Hilltoppers 45-19, congratulations Ty Storey).

Not our fault. The Razorbacks stayed on rock bottom by losing their last nine games.

Enter Pittman.

We think the Razorbacks are going to be closer knit and play harder and have more explosive players on both sides of the ball this season.

But it’s really difficult to put a rosy projection on a team that enters the year on a 19-game SEC losing streak.

Tongue always in cheek, the Forecast sees the following outcomes, coronavirus postponements notwithstanding.

Sept. 26

No. 4 Georgia 31, Arkansas 13

FAYETTEVILLE — JT Daniels fires three touchdown passes and the Bulldogs thwart Coach Sam Pittman’s upset bid against his former team.

The 17,000 fans in attendance violate face mark protocol to scream and high five when De’Vion Warren returns the opening kickoff 85 yards to the Bulldogs’ 12-yard line just 30 minutes after Pittman and Georgia Coach Kirby Smart share an air hug at midfield.

When Feleipe Franks drops a perfect strike on Treylon Burks on the first offensive snap for coordinator Kendal Briles, the Hogs are slobbering and happy. Burks scores the first touchdown of his UA career and the first of five this season.

However, Georgia’s blue ribbon defense limits the Razorbacks to 230 yards the rest of the way and Arkansas musters only two more field goals.

Oct. 3

Mississippi State 38, Arkansas 33

STARKVILLE, Miss. — Kylin Hill takes a screen pass from K.J. Costello 30 yards to pay dirt on fourth down in the closing moments as the Bulldogs fight off a gritty performance from the Razorbacks.

The loss overshadows strong showings from several Razorbacks. Rakeem Boyd runs for 128 yards and a touchdown. Mike Woods catches six passes for 106 yards and a touchdown. Cornerback Jerry Jacobs has an interception and Grant Morgan recovers a fumble forced by Julius Coates. Quarterback Feleipe Franks completes 25 of 35 passes for 281 yards and TD passes to Woods and Trelon Smith.

Oct. 10

No. 11 Auburn 34, Arkansas 17

AUBURN, Ala. — Gus Malzahn improves to 7-1 as a head coach against the Hogs after Arkansas bolts to a surprising 10-0 lead in the first quarter.

Auburn offensive coordinator Chad Morris comes over to say “hi” in pregame to a few select Razorbacks, breaking the silence with his former team that had lasted since his dismissal last November.

Treylon Burks’ 65-yard punt return sets up A’Montae Spivey’s 3-yard touchdown run, and A.J. Reed connects on a 47-yard field goal to cap a 50-yard drive on which Feleipe Franks goes 3 for 4 for 42 yards.

T.J. Hammonds takes a tunnel screen 71 yards to the end zone early in the third quarter to cut Auburn’s lead to 20-17.

Bo Nix throws for 313 yards and 3 touchdowns to lead the Tigers.

Oct. 17

Arkansas 41, Ole Miss 30

FAYETTEVILLE — Myron Cunningham and Dalton Wagner lift Sam Pittman onto their shoulders and Ty Clary and Ricky Stromberg do the same with offensive line coach Brad Davis as the Razorbacks go nuts to celebrate the end of their 22-game SEC losing streak.

The ground Hogs pile up 275 rushing yards, with Rakeem Boyd scoring from 73 and 55 yards out en route to a career-high 208 yards.

Feleipe Franks connects with Hudson Henry and Trey Knox on touchdown passes and scores on a 5-yard keeper while throwing for 290 yards. Mississippi native K.J. Jefferson converts a critical fourth-and-2 on a quarterback keeper in the fourth quarter for the Hogs.

Montaric Brown and Joe Foucha notch interceptions and Bumper Pool recovers a fumble for three Arkansas takeaways.

Oct. 31

No. 13 Texas A&M 30, Arkansas 20

COLLEGE STATION, Texas — The Aggies extend their winning streak in the series to nine games as Kellen Mond throws for one touchdown and rushes for another to go 4-0 as the Texas A&M starter against the Razorbacks.

Rakeem Boyd has a field day against his former school with 165 rushing yards and two touchdowns, but Texas A&M limits the Razorbacks to 171 passing yards.

Mond’s efforts include 231 passing yards and a 35-yard touchdown on a fourth-and-short call. He throws two interceptions, to Hayden Henry and Jarques McClellion, as the Razorbacks keep things close in the second half.

Nov. 7

Arkansas 28, Tennessee 27

FAYETTEVILLE — Rakeem Boyd caps a 135-yard rushing performance with a 21-yard draw play for a touchdown on fourth down with 25 seconds remaining to cap an Arkansas comeback from a 20-7 deficit.

The Volunteers reach midfield in the closing seconds before Montaric Brown jumps high in the end zone to intercept Jarrett Guarantano’s Hail Mary pass at the final horn.

The Arkansas comeback is fueled by Dorian Gerald’s strip sack that is recovered at the Vols’ 33 yard line by Jonathan Marshall midway through the third quarter.

Feleipe Franks connects on scoring passes to Treylon Burks and Tyson Morris, and K.J. Jefferson adds a 2-yard keeper for the Razorbacks’ other touchdown.

Myles Slusher makes a game-changing contribution by picking off a halfback pass early in the fourth quarter.

Coach Sam Pittman and his old buddy, Tennessee offensive coordinator Jim Chaney, share a lengthy pre-game chat.

Nov. 14

No. 8 Florida 36, Arkansas 17

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Feleipe Franks passes for 297 yards and two touchdowns against his former team, but the Gators have too much firepower for the Razorbacks to score an upset.

Kyle Track posts 282 passing yards and two touchdowns to lead Florida.

Franks’ scoring passes are caught by Mike Woods and Trey Knox, the second pulling the Razorbacks within 22-17 early in the third quarter.

Treylon Burks has 90 punt return yards and Isaiah Nichols and Greg Brooks Jr. notch takeaways for the Arkansas defense.

Nov. 21

No. 5 LSU 31, Arkansas 21

FAYETTEVILLE – The defending College Football Playoff champions win their third in a row at Razorback Stadium since the skid-stopping, field-rushing 17-0 shutout by Arkansas in 2014, and the Tigers take their fifth in a row in the series.

The Arkansas defense turns in a respectable showing, limiting LSU to 314 total yards, but the Razorbacks suffer a season-high four turnovers.

Xavier Kelly, Mataio Soli and Joe Foucha notch sacks for the Razorbacks. Andrew Parker picks off a pass at the Arkansas 20, runs it back 57 yards, then laterals to fellow Louisiana native Devin Bush, who scampers the final 23 yards for a touchdown.

Blayne Toll catches his first touchdown pass as a collegian, and Rakeem Boyd runs for 83 yards and a score.

LSU Coach Ed Orgeron, who was 0-3 vs. the Hogs as head coach at Ole Miss from 2005-07 by a combined score of 110-28, improves to 5-0 as Tigers head coach against Arkansas.

Nov. 28

Arkansas 27, Missouri 17

COLUMBIA, Mo. — Arkansas defensive coordinator Barry Odom is presented the game ball after the Razorbacks hold his alma mater, and the team for which he served as head coach (2016-19), to 284 total yards and notch four takeaways.

Rakeem Boyd piles up 123 rushing yards and a score, while Feleipe Franks and K.J. Jefferson throw for one touchdown apiece, to De’Vion Warren and Trelon Smith, respectively.

The Razorbacks swarm on defense to foil first-year Coach Eli Drinkwitz’s bid to beat his home-state school. Jerry Jacobs and Julius Coates pick off passes, and Myles Mason and Deon Edwards recover fumbles forced by Hayden Henry and Xavier Kelly, respectively.

Dec. 5

Alabama 45, Arkansas 13

FAYETTEVILLE — The Razorbacks opened the year with a loss to SEC East champion Georgia and close it with a setback against the SEC West champs.

Alabama Coach Nick Saban improves to 14-0 against Arkansas with the Crimson Tide.

The Razorback highlights include Rakeem Boyd rushing for 87 yards to push his season total to 1,022, and defensive backs Joe Foucha and Micahh Smith posting takeaways.

Feleipe Franks’ 1-yard sneak pulls Arkansas with 14-10 early in the second quarter, but the Crimson Tide pulls away from there.

“What? Nothing about my statue making the trip from the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette this year?” Saban asks to open his post-game remarks. “A’ight, I’ll be honest, I was kinda growing fond of the yearly statue references that served to enhance my positive self gratification. I considered them part of the process.”

The Razorbacks complete a 3-7 regular season, frankly a positive step from the results of the last two seasons, and accept a postseason bid to the Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl to get their first mid-December practices in four years.

Dec. 23

Arkansas 30, Army 27

SHREVEPORT — The Razorbacks score on five of their eight possessions and cash in a special teams touchdown to upset the Black Knights and claim their first bowl victory since the 2015 Liberty Bowl.

Treylon Burks returns a punt 62 yards to open the scoring, the first punt return touchdown for Arkansas since Joe Adams did it against Kansas State in the Cotton Bowl after the 2011 season.

Arkansas’ other touchdowns go to Trelon Smith on a 43-yard screen pass from K.J. Jefferson and John Stephen Jones’ 4-yard keeper.

A.J. Reed and Matthew Phillips each make 50-yard field goals and Reed adds a 33-yarder as the Hogs’ special teams shine.

The Razorbacks go 4-7 in Sam Pittman’s debut.

“I want to thank our players for their commitment and efforts during this difficult season and laying the groundwork for what we’re trying to build at Arkansas, which deserves a winning program,” Pittman says.