FAYETTEVILLE — Below is an analysis of a handful of the more interesting storylines from No. 10 Arkansas’ first month of the season:
• Jaylin Williams is hands down one of country’s best passers
Asked earlier this week for a player he has previously coached who reminds him of sophomore forward Jaylin Williams in terms of his tremendous mix of vision, passing and shot creation for teammates, Eric Musselman quickly rattled his brain and went all the way back to his last coaching stop in the NBA in 2006-07.
Brad Miller, a 6-11 forward and two-time All-Star who played for Musselman with the Sacramento Kings, was the name that came to mind. In Miller's lone season under Musselman, he finished second on the team in assists at 3.6 per game.
Over a lengthy 14-year career, it wound up as Miller’s fifth-best mark in a single season.
“For that one NBA season, I thought that we would put Brad on the elbow area and let him make plays in a similar way that we do with Jaylin in our elbow point-forward position,” Musselman said Monday.
Williams’ ability to generate offense for the Razorbacks through the first six games of the season has been nothing short of terrific. He leads Arkansas in assists with 28. Starting point guard JD Notae is second with 22.
Not only is Williams creating shooting and scoring opportunities for others, his passes are leading to high-quality looks and hyper-efficient offense. The Razorbacks have made 17 of 23 (74%) two-point attempts immediately following one of his feeds and 11 of 23 (47.8%) three-point attempts.
Three other passes have led to six free throw attempts for teammates, of which they have made five. In the month of November, Williams led Arkansas with 49 potential assists (8.2 per game).
Notae has been on the receiving end of nine Williams assists, while Davonte Davis and Au’Diese Toney have scored six times on his passes. Stanley Umude comes in fourth with five buckets. Each player has been a beneficiary of Williams’ fondness of hitting cutters, and stellar skip passes and kick-outs for threes.
According to CBB Analytics, his 4.7 assists per game place him in the 98th percentile nationally. Williams ranks in the 96th percentile, too, with 9.1 assists per 100 possessions.
“When Jaylin has the ball, it happened (Sunday) where we had three guys cutting,” Musselman said. “When other guys have the ball, nobody cuts. They’re like, ‘I’m not wasting my energy cutting. I’m not getting the rock.’ When Jaylin has the ball, all of a sudden everybody started to cut, because they were like, ‘Well, I’ll probably have a chance to get a layup.’”
Musselman, too, recognized the value of Williams’ skip-pass strikes, which often find teammates open for perimeter looks and force opponents to properly rotate in a flash.
“What you see on film is you do see guys shot ready when Jaylin has the ball,” he said. “Other guys, when they have the ball, they could be ordering popcorn, because maybe they don’t think they’re going to get it right away. So, Jaylin, our antennas are up that something good is going to happen from a passing standpoint when he has the ball.”
Arkansas currently has an effective field goal percentage of 52.3, according to HoopLens, when he is on the floor. It drops to 43.7% in his 146 possessions out of the lineup.
• Au’Diese Toney is doing yeoman’s work on the glass
Cincinnati coach Wes Miller described Au’Diese Toney as a nightmare on the offensive glass after the Razorbacks’ 73-67 victory in the championship game of the Hall of Fame Classic last week.
Matching Toney’s blend of toughness and athleticism has proven to be a tall task for Arkansas’ opponents to this point. In the win over Kansas State, Toney set a career high with six offensive rebounds.
He matched that figure the next night out.
Through six games, Toney’s 3.5 offensive rebounds per game rank in the 99th percentile nationally, according to CBB Analytics.
Toney, after receiving the MVP of the Hall of Fame Classic, spoke from the heart when asked about the pride he takes in doing the dirty work for the Razorbacks. What he knows best is how to compete, and his grit around the rim has been a real highlight in the early going.
Toney multiple times this season has spearheaded Arkansas’ advantage in second-chance points. Per CBB Analytics, he is shooting 61.5% on 4.3 second-chance field goal attempts per game. Toney is averaging 4.2 points per game after Razorbacks offensive rebounds alone.
Those final two marks place him in the 99th percentile in the country, as well. And only 7-3 forward Connor Vanover (9.4) has a better scoring mark per 100 possessions on second-chance attempts than Toney (8.2).
In November, he tied JD Notae for the team lead in scores at the rim with 24. One of the constants for Arkansas last month was Toney’s activity on the glass, and there is no indication that he will slow down.
His motor led to him posting an absurd 147.2 offensive rating, according to Sports Reference.
• What can help Davonte Davis’ offense come along?
Buckets and clean, quality looks have been difficult to come by for stretches for Davonte Davis six games into his sophomore season. That could change in a flash, though, given his abundant talent.
But his early season offense, scoring-wise, has raised some eyebrows. According to Sports Reference, Davis carries into the game against Central Arkansas on Wednesday an offensive rating of 85.4, which is higher than only Kamani Johnson, KK Robinson and Chance Moore.
He is shooting 38.1%, and 4 of his 16 scores this season have come beyond the three-point line. On two-point attempts, Davis is 12 of 29 (41.4%). To this point, he has already matched his three-point attempts total from a season ago and is averaging north of two shots per game from the perimeter.
Davis worked on his three-point shot a lot during the offseason and, to his credit, the release, form and follow-through look much improved. That, though, is not where he is his best self.
Here is a look at some shot context for Davis the last two seasons, courtesy of CBB Analytics:
2020-21
At rim: 70.8% on 2.2 FGA
Short 2s: 35.1% on 2.5 FGA
Medium 2s: 35.7% on 1.4 FGA
Long 2s: 57.1% on 1.2 FGA
Short 3s: 14.3% on 0.2 FGA
Long 3s: 16.7% on 0.2 FGA
2021-22
At rim: 60% on 1.7 FGA
Short 2s: 50% on 1.7 FGA
Medium 2s: 0% on 0.5 FGA
Long 2s: 16.7% on 1.0 FGA
Short 3s: 37.5% on 1.3 FGA
Long 3s: 20% on 0.8 FGA
Attempts per game on those first four shot distances are down year over year, and long-range tries are way up. Davis made a living at times last season in the midrange part of the floor, but he is 3 of 11 on such attempts in 2021-22. The absence of a true pass-first point guard like Jalen Tate, who was great at driving the ball then kicking to Davis and others at the elbows and short corners, is a factor here, I believe.
Eric Musselman said Monday he would like to see Davis be a more intentional, active cutter away from the ball. Au’Diese Toney has feasted at the rim following purposeful cuts in the halfcourt this season, so potentially taking a page out of his book could get Davis revved up offensively.
But, in my mind, what has been missing most from Davis’ play is quick-strike offense in the open floor. I predicted in the preseason that he would lead the team in transition scores, because he was phenomenal in that regard as a freshman.
This season, Davis is averaging 1 point on 0.5 fastbreak field goal attempts per game. Last season those numbers were 2.4 and 1.5, respectively, per CBB Analytics.
“A lot of his strengths from last year to this year, they’re not in alignment, because he’s playing a different position,” Musselman said. “We certainly don’t want him to get away from what his strengths were, which we all saw last year – his ability in the open floor and receiving kick-ahead baskets and his ability to create offense through his defense in jumping into the passing lanes.
“It’s a difficult transition to go from an off guard/small forward to the point guard position.”
While scoring has been a bit slow to come around (4 games with less than 10 points), Davis has been solid of late as a distributor. He has eight assists in Arkansas’ last two games and 11 potential assists. His passing down the stretch of the Cincinnati game was huge in the Razorbacks finishing their trip to Kansas City 2-0.
Much like Stanley Umude, Davis is having to adjust to a new role and discover as a scorer what best suits him and Arkansas’ offense. These things can take time, but I am expecting to see offensive improvements from Davis in December.
• A look at Arkansas’ three-point shooting
The Razorbacks’ three-point defense was a primary talking point and thorn in Eric Musselman’s side in the first three games of the season. Now, questions are being raised about the three-point shooting ability of Arkansas’ roster after recent games.
The worst three-point shooting team Musselman has coached at the college level is his first at Nevada, which made a lowly 29.1% of its attempts. This season, the Razorbacks are sitting at 29.7% — 270th in college basketball.
In November, Arkansas shot 10 of 51 (19.6%) on left-wing threes, 8 of 19 (42.1%) from the top of the key and 16 of 42 (38.1%) on the right wing, according to my shot chart data.
The team’s primary point guards – JD Notae, Davonte Davis, Chris Lykes – combined to hit 5 of 35 attempts from the left wing. Notae finished 3 of 19. They were much better, however, on the right wing, connecting on 12 of 28 (42.9%) tries.
Musselman said Monday that Arkansas has taken too many wing threes, which he noted are the “hardest” to make. Too many threes off the dribble and not enough of the catch-and-shoot variety were other critiques.
Moving forward, Musselman would like more corner three-point attempts, which are efficient looks and often the result of solid ball movement and multiple swing passes. The Razorbacks are a combined 4 of 18 in the corners — 1 of 8 in the left corner, 3 of 10 in the right.
Lykes (2 of 4) is the only player with multiple hits below the break.
According to KenPom data, 33.8% of Arkansas’ shots have come beyond the arc. That is roughly the same as last season and ranks 270th nationally. Should that figure hold up, it would be the second lowest of Musselman’s college coaching career.
Musselman, however, did not appear all that concerned with the team’s perimeter shooting on Monday, because it does other things well, like attack the offensive glass and get to the foul line.
“Cosmetically, I’d like us to make some threes to stretch the defense, and that would open up more cutting, more dribble-drive penetration,” he said. “We’ve been a very inconsistent three-ball shooting team, but somebody is going to give us the threes and they’re going to get popped in the head quick.
"We’re capable of knocking down shots.”
• Stray thoughts and observations
— Connor Vanover has made a concerted effort to be more effective inside the three-point line/less reliant on the three this season. His perimeter shot has not fallen early on (1 of 9), but he is 16 of 25 on two-point attempts, including 11 of 15 at the rim.
Somewhat quietly, he is drawing 6.2 fouls per 40 minutes played, per KenPom, which is far and away the best mark of his career. His aggressiveness jumped out in Kansas City, and against Kansas State it led to a career-high nine free throw attempts.
I like Arkansas utilizing him in the 10-15 foot range and a step or two off the left block. He has a solid turnaround game and has knocked down 3 of 5 shots left of the lane so far. Vanover, who is another willing passer in the frontcourt, can be dangerous in that area of the floor in multiple ways.
He does not have a turnover in 72 minutes played. Kamani Johnson and Trey Wade have eight in a combined 68 minutes.
— It feels like Stanley Umude is warming up on the offensive end and starting to see some shots fall that he was known for hitting at South Dakota. According to CBB Analytics, he has taken 1.8 shots per game 10-15 feet out and hit them at a 54.5% rate. Those looks are his bread and butter, and few defenders will be able to contest well given the way he pogo-sticks into his jumpers.
Defensively, Eric Musselman said he still has some room to grow, but we’ve seen several impact plays from Umude lately, whether it be a charge taken, a deflection that keyed a run-out, a steal or great anticipation on an opponent’s out of bounds play. I think he contests vertically without fouling pretty well, too.
He has five steals and three blocks in the last four games, and over the Razorbacks’ last three outings has allowed seven scores on 20 field goal attempts (35%) when the nearest Arkansas defender.
— Kamani Johnson could maybe play himself into a little more run as a fifth big if needed if he could simply limit turnovers. He played 10 minutes against Cincinnati and Penn and grabbed 5 rebounds and blocked 2 shots. Against Gardner-Webb, Johnson had 6 rebounds in 9 minutes. His rebound rate on both ends is astronomical, but so is his turnover percentage (47.6).
— JD Notae closed November with a solid showing as a facilitator. He had five assists for the second time in three games, and finished with 10 potential assists against Penn. Teammates were 4 of 5 on two-point attempts he set up and 1 of 2 from three-point range. Four of his passes led to trips to the free throw line, where the Razorbacks made 5 of 7 tries.