Analyzing Arkansas' 81-68 loss at Mississippi State

Arkansas guard Au'Diese Toney battles Mississippi State forward Javian Davis for control of a rebound during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in Starkville, Miss., Wednesday, Dec. 29, 2021. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

Rarely in his first two seasons at Arkansas did Eric Musselman mention following a loss that his team was outplayed. 

Of late, that line has been used too often for his liking.

In 2019-20, the Razorbacks were undersized, often flooring a lineup with no player taller than 6-6, but their effort and toughness were not questioned. 

Last season, when Arkansas turned things around after a 2-4 start to SEC play and advanced to the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament, leadership was evident and solid performances could be counted on from key players.

Musselman’s third Arkansas team, which dropped its SEC opener 81-68 at Mississippi State on Wednesday, remains in search of an identity after a 10-3 start.

“We have to, as a group, figure out that you really have to play extremely hard against good teams for 40 minutes, and you’ve got to have a competitive nature about yourself that if another team makes a run, you’ve got to be able to counter that run,” Musselman said. “There’s just a lot of little areas that we’ve got to get a lot better at. We’ve got to coach to the best of our ability.

“We got outplayed tonight. I don’t know what else to say.”

While the Razorbacks were dealing with the absence of leading scorer JD Notae (illness) and forward Kamani Johnson (indefinite suspension), Mississippi State received strong play from two of its guards and one of the best back-to-the-basket bigs in the SEC. The Bulldogs were led in the backcourt by Iverson Molinar and Shakeel Moore, who combined for 31 points on 10 of 18 shooting, 6 rebounds and 10 assists.

Moore knocked down three of Mississippi State’s five makes beyond the arc. He and Molinar scored 20 points in a second half that belonged to the Bulldogs, although they did not go on a run of greater than 5-0.

Molinar was especially effective after halftime. He recorded 12 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists following a lackluster first half in which he committed 3 turnovers and had 4 points in 16 minutes.

But Tolu Smith, in his first game back from a fractured toe on his right foot, was the difference and spearheaded a surge of toughness from the Bulldogs after the break. Smith finished with a team-high 18 points and grabbed 6 rebounds, including 4 offensive.

He added a career-high five steals as well, impacting both ends of the floor and serving as one of the primary reasons Arkansas committed 17 turnovers. Offensively, he was 5 of 8 from the floor and made a living at the line — 8 of 10 — thanks to 6 drawn fouls.

“He establishes really good post position,” Musselman said of Smith. “He’s an excellent rebounder. He’s a phenomenal interior player. He’s an excellent offensive rebounder. He did a great job of sealing and ducking in and being physical.

“It’s good for our guys to watch that as well, because he does a great job of eating up space on the interior whether it’s the right block or the left block.”

The Bulldogs put four starters in double figures in their 10th win of the season. In the decisive second half, which Mississippi State won 48-37, it shot 50% from the floor and grabbed 9 offensive rebounds. Arkansas won the rebounding battle 19-16 in the first half, but finished with 10 total rebounds after halftime.

For the game, the Bulldogs scored at a 1.209 point-per-possession clip. They opened the second half hitting 9 of their first 15 shots and operating at a 1.786 PPP rate. With less than three minutes to play, Mississippi State’s PPP figure was nearly 1.40.

According to KenPom data, Arkansas posted its second-worst defensive efficiency rating (114.9) of the season. Its three worst marks have come since a Dec. 11 loss to Oklahoma. The Razorbacks are 1-3 during that stretch.

“I think we’ve just got to figure out what it is (that’s) keeping us from getting consecutive stops,” forward Stanley Umude said. “We haven’t played a full 40-minute game playing well, and we’ve got to figure out how to do that. I don’t think collectively we’ve played as good of defense as we should all year.

“I think we’ve got to pick it up on that side of the ball and lock in on that side of the ball.”

The Razorbacks, according to KenPom data, recorded their highest turnover percentage of the season (24.1%) and second-worst offensive efficiency rating (96.5). All nine players who took the floor for Arkansas had at least one turnover. Chris Lykes, who primarily played the 1 position in his 24 minutes, had a season-high 4 turnovers.

He had previously not committed more than two turnovers in a game.

The Razorbacks’ turnover troubles started early. On their first possession they had a shot clock violation, then Lykes fired a pass too hot and tall for a forward. Three players who were in the lineup 17 minutes or less combined for four turnovers.

Mississippi State hammered Arkansas with 25 points off those miscues. In the Razorbacks’ three losses, opponents have scored an average of 21.3 points off turnovers.

Umude, who added 19 points on 7 of 12 shooting, was the bright spot for Arkansas, and Davonte Davis scored 15 points on 7 of 12 from the floor to go with 5 rebounds and 4 assists. Jaylin Williams pitched in 9 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists.

“We’ve got to continue to coach and continue to fight and scrap and, you know, we’ve got a lot of work to do,” Musselman said. “We can all see that, and we’ve got to improve in a lot of areas — not just one area.”