Arkansas wraps up its two-game road swing in SEC play Saturday at No. 10 Missouri. The Razorbacks are aiming to split the regular-season series after dropping the first meeting 81-68 on Jan. 2 in Fayetteville.
Here is an in-depth look at each team:
Arkansas team notes
During its five-game winning streak in the SEC, Arkansas has made 59.3% of its shots at the rim, according to shot chart data collected throughout the season. In January, the Razorbacks converted those looks at a 51.1% rate.
Graduate-transfer forward Justin Smith leads the Razorbacks with 22 buckets at the rim in that span, and freshman guard Davonte Davis is second with 14.
In those five league games, Arkansas’ defense has allowed just .89 points per possession and turned opponents over on 21.4% of their possessions, according to HoopLens analytics. Lineups featuring Davis have given up .81 PPP and held teams to 42% shooting inside the three-point line.
Opponents’ turnover rate also shoots up from 18.3% when Davis sits to 24% when he is on the floor.
Smith’s presence defensively and on the offensive glass could loom large in this rematch. He did not play in the teams’ first meeting in Bud Walton Arena after undergoing surgery on his right ankle the day before.
Arkansas is No. 3 in SEC games in defensive efficiency (99.2), per KenPom, and it leads the league in limiting offensive rebounds, allowing one on 26.8% of opponents’ missed shots. On the other end, the Razorbacks are No. 2 in offensive turnover rate at 17.8%.
As of Friday, Arkansas is No. 26 in the NET rankings and the third-highest rated SEC team by KenPom. The Razorbacks sit at No. 25, behind only Alabama (10) and Tennessee (14). Since the win at Kentucky on Tuesday, Arkansas has moved up two spots, and since the back-to-back road losses to LSU and Alabama, the Razorbacks have jumped 18 spots.
In the latest bracket projection by ESPN's Joe Lunardi, Arkansas is not on the NCAA Tournament bubble. The Razorbacks are a No. 9 seed and matched up with No. 8-seed Oklahoma State. The teams are slotted in the region in which Gonzaga is the No. 1 seed.
Missouri team notes
Following its 80-59 loss at Ole Miss earlier this week, Missouri (13-4, 6-4 SEC) dropped nine spots on KenPom to No. 38 and sits at No. 34 in the NET entering Saturday.
Creating offense in league games has been a struggle at times for the Tigers, who are No. 12 in the SEC in offensive efficiency (98.8).
They rank 12th or worse in offensive rebound percentage, three-point field goal percentage and free throw percentage, and have had nearly 14% of their two-point attempts blocked. But Missouri is effective getting to the free throw line, attempting 3.9 free throws for every 10 shots from the floor.
Point guard Xavier Pinson and forward Jeremiah Tilmon both rank in the top 10 in SEC games in fouls drawn per 40 minutes played, according to KenPom. On Jan. 2, they combined to make 19 of 25 free throws. As a team, Missouri was 28 of 39.
Pinson scored a then-season-high 23 points and Tilmon added a then-career-high 25 points and 11 rebounds. Mark Smith was the only other Tigers player in double figures with 11 points.
Defensively, Missouri has been solid in conference games. Its 99.5 defensive efficiency rating is No. 4 in the SEC, and opponents have made only 45.2% of their two-point attempts. However, teams have shot the three at a 35% clip and only Vanderbilt has sent opponents to the line more frequently.
Lunardi’s latest projection has the Tigers as a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Key player trends
• Moses Moody and Connor Vanover are a combined 8 of 17 on catch-and-shoot three-pointers over the last two games. The rest of the Razorbacks are 1 of 19.
• Since the beginning of January, Moody has hit 7 of 10 right-corner threes. And over the last six games, opponents are 10 of 43 from the floor with Moody as the nearest defender.
• The Razorbacks are 15 of 26 on shots immediately following a Justin Smith pass in the last seven games. They have hit 7 of 15 attempts from three-point range during that stretch.
• JD Notae is 2 of 10 from three on the right side of the floor during Arkansas’ conference win streak. He is also 5 of 15 at the rim.
• Jalen Tate is averaging 8.3 potential assists over the Razorbacks’ last six games. He had 13 in Arkansas’ first game vs. Missouri.
• Tigers guard Dru Smith tied a career high with five made threes in the loss at Ole Miss. He is shooting 45.7% from three-point range in SEC games.
• Since scoring 54 points over two games against Auburn and TCU, Tilmon is averaging 7.7 points in the last three games. He added an SEC-low six points against the Rebels on Wednesday.