Advanced stats preview: Arkansas vs. Oral Roberts

Arkansas guard Davonte Davis (4) celebrates with teammates Moses Moody (5), JD Notae (1) and Justin Smith (0) in the first half of a second-round game in the NCAA men's college basketball tournament at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Sunday, March 21, 2021. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

Arkansas-Oral Roberts is scheduled to tip off at 6:25 p.m. Central on Saturday from Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The game will air on TBS.

Here is an in-depth look at each team and several key player trends:

Arkansas notes

Winners of 14 of their last 16 games, the Razorbacks are in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1996 — before any player on the roster was born. Arkansas won the first meeting with the Golden Eagles 87-76 on Dec. 20 in Fayetteville.

Justin Smith finished with a game-high 22 points and career-high 17 rebounds — 10 offensive. Jaylin Williams did not play in the win, and Davonte Davis saw the floor for nine minutes.

The Razorbacks enter the weekend with the No. 10 defensive efficiency rating nationally, according to KenPom data, and they play the quickest defensive possessions (15.9 seconds) of any team remaining in the field. Oral Roberts is No. 2 at 17 seconds.

Over the last 16 games, the Razorbacks have allowed 0.92 points per possession, according to HoopLens analytics. They have limited opponents to 45.2% shooting inside the three-point line, but have been a bit shaky beyond the arc at 35.1%. Arkansas’ defensive turnover rate in that span is 20.5%.

Through two NCAA Tournament games, the Razorbacks have held their opponent’s leading scorer to 11 points per game on a combined 6 of 19 shooting, including 2 of 11 on two-point looks.

Colgate and Texas Tech made only 23 of 72 attempts (32%) inside the arc.

Offensively, Smith has starred for Arkansas. He is averaging 24.5 points on 64.3% from the floor in the tournament, and has scored 20-plus points in three consecutive games for the first time in his college career. And dating back to the SEC Tournament semifinal loss to LSU, Smith is grabbing four offensive rebounds per outing.

Davis and Moses Moody have each scored 27 points in Indianapolis. Davis is 13 of 25 inside the three-point line, and Moody is 7 of 9. Jalen Tate has scored in double figures in both games as well.

Oral Roberts notes

The Golden Eagles are looking to continue their Cinderella run in Indianapolis and knock off their third high-major program in as many games. They defeated 2-seed Ohio State in overtime in the opening round then downed 7-seed Florida to reach the Sweet 16.

Oral Roberts has not been shy about launching three-pointers in the NCAA Tournament. In two games, it has connected on 21 of 65 attempts, and in the last four games overall it is averaging 11 made threes.

The nation’s leading scorer, Max Abmas is on a scoring tear in the postseason for the Golden Eagles. Including three games in the Summit League Tournament, he is pouring in 23.6 points in Oral Roberts’ last five outings. Abmas has also recorded 30 assists in that span.

Kevin Obanor, a 6-8 junior forward, has saved two of his best performances of the season for the NCAA Tournament. He is averaging 29 points and 11 rebounds so far, and he has knocked down as many three-pointers (9 of 19) as two-point shots (9 of 18). Obanor is a 46% three-point shooter on 113 attempts.

He and Abmas have combined to make 16 of the team’s 21 three-pointers.

According to KenPom, Obanor is No. 67 nationally in defensive rebound rate, grabbing 24.1% of opponents’ misses when on the floor. Obanor draws 4.9 fouls per 40 minutes played, too, and is an 87% free throw shooter. He finished with 21 points and 10 rebounds against Arkansas in December.

Carlos Jurgens, a 6-5 guard, and Kareem Thompson, a 6-6 guard, are the only other Golden Eagles to score more than 10 points in the team’s first two tournament games. Jurgens has 15, and Thompson 12.

Oral Roberts is the No. 1 free throw shooting team in the country, making 82.4% of its attempts, and is No. 14 in three-point percentage at 38.2. More than 46% of the Golden Eagles’ shots this season have been threes.

On the glass, Arkansas should have an advantage. Oral Roberts has rebounded only 22.9% of its misses while allowing opponents to grab their own miss at a 33.3% clip.

Key player trends

• Max Abmas and Kevin Obanor each played all 85 minutes in Oral Roberts’ first two games in the NCAA Tournament. Obanor led the Golden Eagles with 58 points, and Abmas added 55. The rest of the team scored a combined 43 points vs. Ohio State and Florida. The duo has scored 72.4% of ORU’s points through two games.

• Abmas has played every minute in 17 of ORU’s 20 games in 2021.

• Justin Smith limited Texas Tech players to 3 of 17 shooting and 1 of 13 inside the three-point line in Arkansas’ second-round win when he was the Razorbacks’ nearest defender. Jaylin Williams was second on the team in shots defended with 10.

• Arkansas’ best lineup in the NCAA Tournament, according to HoopLens analytics, has been Davis-Moody-Tate-Notae-Smith. The group scored at a 1.13 point-per-possession clip and turned the ball over twice in 54 possessions together. Defensively, it limited Colgate and Texas Tech to 0.88 PPP and 44.4% shooting inside the arc. That equates to a +/- of plus-16.

• Obanor has recorded 14 double-doubles this season and has arguably played his best basketball against high-major competition. In games against Missouri, Wichita State, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Ohio State and Florida, he averaged 22.1 points and 9.7 rebounds.

• In the NCAA Tournament, Moses Moody has made 5 of 6 midrange jumpers off the dribble, and 6 of 8 midrange shots overall.

• Smith has made 54 of 73 (74%) field goal attempts in the second halves of the last 11 games. He has missed more than two shots only twice in that span.

• Notae has 19 steals in the Razorbacks’ last eight games, including three-plus in four games.

• Davis has scored twice in transition in each NCAA Tournament game, and he is 6 of 13 on midrange jumpers, including 2 of 3 on short midrange attempts.

• Williams has played 28-plus minutes in five games this season, including Sunday vs. Texas Tech. In those games he is averaging 5.4 points, 7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.4 blocks and 1 steal.