Advanced stats preview: Arkansas vs. Baylor

Arkansas' Justin Smith passes during the first half of a Sweet 16 game against Oral Roberts in the NCAA men's college basketball tournament at Banker's Life Fieldhouse, Saturday, March 27, 2021, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

Arkansas and Baylor are set to tip off in the Elite Eight on Monday at 8:57 p.m. Central on CBS. The winner moves on to next weekend’s Final Four. It would be the Razorbacks’ first appearance since 1995, and the Bears’ first since 1950.

Here is an in-depth look at both teams, and several key player trends:

Arkansas notes

The Razorbacks enter tonight’s game fresh off of a narrow 72-70 victory over 15-seed Oral Roberts on Saturday. Freshman guard Davonte Davis made a game-winning midrange jumper with 3.1 seconds remaining to beat the Golden Eagles.

Arkansas has four players — Justin Smith, Jalen Tate, Davis and Moses Moody — averaging double-figure points in the NCAA Tournament. Smith leads the way at 19.7 points on 56.1% from the floor and 10.7 rebounds. He is posting six offensive rebounds per outing through three tournament games.

Smith also has a team-high six steals and is tied for the team lead with three blocked shots. The Razorbacks’ defense has allowed 0.89 points per possession over Smith’s 221 defensive possessions in Indianapolis, according to HoopLens analytics. He has been on the floor for all but six defensive trips for Arkansas.

Tate is second in scoring at 16.3 per game. He is coming off his most important offensive game of the season Saturday, when he scored 22 points and generated 13 more with his six assists. Tate made all four of his field goal attempts in the final 5:01 of the game, and had two stretches in the game in which he made four consecutive shots.

He has twice as many assists (12) in the tournament as Davis, who is second in that category. Desi Sills is third with five.

Davis is averaging 14.3 points and Moody 13.7. Davis is shooting 51.3% from the floor, and Moody sits at 35.9% after a 4 of 20 shooting performance against Oral Roberts.

The Razorbacks advanced to the Elite Eight despite making only 1 of 9 three-point attempts. It was the third instance of an Eric Musselman-coached team making one three-pointer in a game and the first since March 2, 2016.

JD Notae leads Arkansas with five made three-pointers, and Moody is second with three during the tournament. As a team, the Razorbacks are shooting 23.8% from deep, but their offensive turnover rate has been low. It is 12.7% entering tonight, which is great. That will be something to keep an eye on.

Arkansas owns the No. 10 defensive efficiency rating nationally (89.3), according to KenPom data, and the fifth best of the eight remaining teams. Offensively, the Razorbacks’ efficiency rating of 110.8 is the lowest among Elite Eight teams. Arkansas has scored at a 0.99 PPP clip in the tournament.

Baylor notes

The Bears are No. 2 in the KenPom rankings entering the game. A lot of the Baylor discussion has been about its defense, which is stout, but for the season its offense is No. 3 in the country in efficiency, scoring 122.5 points per 100 possessions.

Scott Drew’s team ranks in the top six nationally in effective field goal percentage (56.6%), offensive rebound rate (36.8%) and three-point field goal percentage (40.8%). The Bears will at various points in the game floor five players shooting at least 39% from three. Each has attempted 67 or more three-pointers.

Davion Mitchell, one of the best defenders in the tournament field, has made 45% of his 131 attempts, while Jared Butler, Adam Flagler, Matthew Mayer and MaCio Teague are each right around or above the 40% mark. Butler has made a team-high 67 threes.

Butler touches nearly every aspect of the Bears’ games. Against Hartford in the first round, he recorded a game-high nine assists and had five steals. He saw a seven-game run of double-figure scoring efforts snapped vs. Villanova over the weekend.

Mitchell also had three steals vs. Hartford and eight assists in the second-round win over Wisconsin. He is the only Baylor player to score in double figures in all three tournament games. Mitchell is averaging 14 points so far.

Flagler, a 6-3 guard, scored a team-high 16 points off the bench in the Sweet 16. Teague, a 6-4 senior guard, added 22 points against Hartford.

The Bears have posted an offensive efficiency rating of 100.0 or better in 24 of 27 games. In 10 games that figure has been above 120.0, per KenPom.

Baylor has limited its three opponents to 0.81 PPP and turned them over at a 26% rate, according to HoopLens. The Bears are thriving off those miscues, too, to the tune of 20 points per game so far. Opposing teams have shot 26.7% from three-point range as well.

Baylor is third nationally in defensive turnover rate at 24.8% and sixth in steal percentage (12.9). Individually, Butler is No. 32 in the country in steal rate (4.0%) and Mitchell is 71st at 3.5%.

Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, a 6-9 forward, and Mark Vital, who stands 6-5 and 250 pounds, have been solid shot blockers throughout the season, but have only one between them in Indianapolis. Mitchell and Teague each have three.

Key player trends

• Texas Tech and Oral Roberts players were a combined 4 of 23 from the floor with Justin Smith as the Razorbacks’ nearest defender. They made only 2 of 16 attempts inside the three-point line. Smith held Red Raiders shooters to 3 of 17, and Oral Roberts’ were 1 of 6, including 0 of 3 from distance.

• Moses Moody has limited opposing players to 7 of 25 shooting through three NCAA Tournament games. He put his best defensive foot forward against the Golden Eagles, holding them to 1 of 9 when he was the nearest defender, and 1 of 5 from three-point range. He has also taken a charge in each of the last two games.

• Smith has been tough for opponents to handle on the offensive glass with 19 offensive rebounds. He has scored seven times in the tournament after grabbing an Arkansas miss (1 vs. Colgate, 3 vs. Texas Tech, 3 vs. Oral Roberts).

• Smith has continued his trend of efficient offense in the second halves of games. He was a combined 9 of 10 from the floor vs. Texas Tech and Oral Roberts. Seven of those scores were layups or dunks.

• Jared Butler leads Baylor with eight steals in the NCAA Tournament, and Davion Mitchell has seven. The Bears have turned teams over on 30.4% of 135 possessions through three games when they share the floor, according to HoopLens.

• JD Notae has had a streak of at least four consecutive missed shots in each tournament game. He missed his first four attempts vs. Colgate, his last seven vs. Texas Tech and the final four vs. Oral Roberts. Of those misses, four were catch-and-shoot three-point attempts from the left wing; five were off-the-dribble threes; and three were layups after drives to the rim. He has made two shots in a row once — vs. Texas Tech when the Razorbacks fell behind by 10.

• Butler, a 40% three-point shooter for the season, has struggled from distance in two of three tournament games. He was 1 of 8 vs. Hartford and 1 of 9 vs. Villanova. Butler was also 1 of 7 in the team’s loss to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Tournament.

• After knocking down 6 of 8 midrange jumpers against Colgate and Texas Tech, Moody was 2 of 12 on such attempts vs. Oral Roberts. Three of his four field goals against the Golden Eagles came on baseline out of bounds plays.

• Davonte Davis made 4 of 9 midrange jumpers against Oral Roberts, including 2 of 4 off the bounce. He was 1 of 4 in the short midrange area prior to hitting the game winner.

• Arkansas put up nine shots following a post-up vs. Oral Roberts and made five. The Razorbacks’ guards were 4 of 5 – Jalen Tate 3 of 4, Moody 1 of 1.