FAYETTEVILLE — Here are 15 predictions for the Razorbacks in Year 3 under Eric Musselman:
JD Notae will lead the Razorbacks in scoring
I feel most confident in this prediction, not only because Notae figures to have the team’s highest usage rate and shot percentage for a second consecutive season but because he had a strong offseason of work on the floor and in the weight room. He is an ultra-explosive scorer and may very well be Arkansas’ go-to guy at the guard spot when a game is in the balance. In the Razorbacks’ exhibitions he was the primary target on a number of inbounds plays and a few sets, too, so there will be ample opportunities for Notae to score in bunches. And that’s even not taking into account how he can turn much-improved defensive play into quick offense and his gifts in transition. I expect Notae to finish in the 15 point-per-game range and be a bit more efficient than last season.
Jaylin Williams will have 8 or more 10-plus rebound games
When the 6-10 Williams is fully healthy, he can be a legit rebounding machine. As a freshman, he had some dominant stretches on the defensive backboards, including in Arkansas’ wins over Florida and Alabama at home and Texas Tech in the NCAA Tournament. Eight times last season Williams grabbed at least six defensive rebounds, four times he finished with 10 total rebounds and in five games he totaled seven or more boards. What makes those figures all the more impressive for a first-year player is that, according to KenPom data, Williams played in only 32.5% of the Razorbacks’ available minutes. In 2020-21, Williams averaged 11.7 rebounds per 40 minutes played and a whopping 15.6 per 100 possessions, according to Sports Reference. If he can get past a re-aggravated ankle injury and some back spasms, he could lead Arkansas in rebounding — and it might not be close.
Davonte Davis will lead the team in transition scores
According to HoopLens analytics, bouncy forward Justin Smith led the Razorbacks a year ago with a PAM — points above median, a measure of how many additional points a player scores when compared with what an average player would have scored on those attempts — of 18.2 at the rim in transition. Second on the roster was Davis, who came in at 16.5. He began to blossom in the open floor around the start of February. Over the final eight games of the regular season, he added nine buckets in transition, including four against the Gators. Davis getting out and running with the ball in his hands can pull Arkansas out of some offensive funks, like in its first-round NCAA Tournament game vs. Colgate. The Razorbacks were struggling to find a rhythm until the long guard scored twice without the defense set. There are a lot of things I like about Davis’ game on both ends of the floor, but watching him excel in this realm tops the list.
Jaxson Robinson will lead the team in corner threes made
Arkansas has not gotten a lot of production from either of the corners the previous two seasons. In Eric Musselman’s first year, the Razorbacks shot 47 of 176 (26.7%) from those areas. Last season, their percentage was better but not great (35.3%) and volume was down a bit (150 attempts). Moses Moody essentially carried Arkansas here, hitting 24 corner threes, including 19 of 30 in the right corner. Who can and will give the Razorbacks some pop here? I think Robinson can. He showed more of a propensity than his teammates to fade into the corners during the Red-White game and against North Texas. The corners are an ideal spot for a knockdown shooter to find both in transition and in the halfcourt when pick-and-roll ballhandlers are blitzed and help defenders slide up to cover the roller. He is a prime candidate, too, because Arkansas’ returning players attempted a combined 38 corner threes last season and simply seem to be better when operating in other areas of the floor.
Williams will make at least 20 three-pointers
Davonte Davis said in April that one of his offseason goals was to become much more of a threat from the perimeter and flash an improved three-point shot as a sophomore. Williams made a similar statement after hitting 7 of 23 attempts from deep. Musselman, though, wants neither player to get away from what has made them so successful. But I think we will see progress from Williams as a stretch 5. There appeared to be some freshman-year hesitancy and a slight hitch in his jumper, but if the Red-White game is any indication, he’s pulling with a lot more confidence these days. I figure Williams may attempt 1-1.5 threes per game this season after averaging 0.9 as a freshman. That will be enough to let his matchups know he is willing to fire away and that they have to respect this part of his game.
Au’Diese Toney will lead the team in offensive rebounds
When Toney committed to Arkansas in the spring, I reached out to a Pittsburgh basketball writer to get more familiar with the new addition. I was told that the 6-6 wing is the type of player who does things you would expect from a guy who is two inches taller and a bit heavier or bulkier. Toney is tough, athletic and team first. Sounds like what strong rebounders are made of. To this point in his college career he has posted offensive rebound percentages of 8.4, 7.3 and 7.2. Those are good marks. Last year, Toney grabbed multiple offensive rebounds in nine of 16 games played, and he had three or more in seven outings. Having a player on the floor with that kind of nose for missed shots is always a plus. I imagine he will be solid here in the halfcourt and also on putbacks in transition when extra effort is necessary.
Connor Vanover will take significantly more two-point attempts than threes
Some would be surprised to know Vanover attempted more shots inside the arc (81) than beyond it (74) last season. I see that gap growing this season. This is not to say Vanover will not have games in which he launches 4-5 threes, but he and the coaching staff are placing an emphasis on being more effective around the rim as a cutter and roller, and not being reliant on the three. Musselman mentioned this after the Red-White game, when nine of Vanover’s 12 field goal attempts were two-point attempts and all five buckets were a result of swift off-ball movement to the rim.
Davis and Stanley Umude will be 2-3 in scoring, in either order
These two will be the focal points of many opposing scouting reports. Davis is coming off a terrific freshman season in which he averaged 8.5 points, and that’s after he was not a rotation player for the first month of the schedule. He is a gifted scorer and crafty, able to get to the rim almost any time he wants, and he has a strong midrange game. According to CBB Analytics, 15.3% of Davis’ shots were long two-point attempts. He hit them at a 57.1% clip, which placed in the 92nd percentile nationally. If he is able to knock down 15-plus threes this year, too, he’ll be one of the tougher covers in the league.
Umude is a natural scorer. That is what he did best at South Dakota after his freshman year. Like Smith last season, the offense may run through him more as Arkansas gets further along in its schedule, which could give way to big scoring nights. As we saw in the North Texas exhibition, he’s capable of scoring on the run, at the rim, in the mid-post and beyond the arc. I may be higher on Umude than some, but he has all the tools to be an offensive leader for the Razorbacks.
Trey Wade will work his way into the starting lineup at some point
Musselman mentioned this preseason when asked about Jaxson Robinson that the guard is low maintenance. Wade, it seems, is the frontcourt version of Robinson in that regard, and there’s a ruggedness about him. The Wichita State transfer doesn’t concern himself with the number of shots he gets, and he simply does his job and stays within himself. That steadiness and mentality is sure to find its way into the first unit. He is a veteran and has played in big games before, so his experience will be valuable when things inevitably get tough. Once he is back in great game shape, I will be less than shocked if he is a player Musselman depends on for chunks of games.
Umude will lead Arkansas’ non-guards in potential assists
Like I mentioned above, Umude is one of the best scorers in America. But that is not all he can do on the offensive end. Far from it. He proved in his final two seasons at South Dakota that he is a more-than-capable distributor when offense flows through him. He had 11 games in those two years in which he finished with five or more assists. His assist rate last season was a career best 21.0%. Potential assists are interesting to track, though, because a player can wind up with 1-2 assists in a game, but it doesn’t mean he wasn’t willing to create for teammates. He may have set up 7-8 shots and teammates missed 6-7 of those attempts. That doesn’t show up in a box score. And teams always need a frontcourt player or two who are great ball movers. Umude, I believe, will be one.
KK Robinson will be one of the team’s leaders in assist rate
We don’t have a sizable sample to work with with Robinson from last season due to some foul issues early on and his foot surgery in January. But something that does stand out when looking at the season he did have is his assist rate (19.2%). Both games in 2020-21 in which he played 15-plus minutes, he finished with three and four assists. Though many of Robinson’s minutes did not come against great competition (18 vs. Mississippi Valley State, 21 vs. Lipscomb, 14 vs. Southern), Arkansas did score 1.34 PPP in those games with him in the lineup, per HoopLens. He had something to do with it. In his 146 offensive possessions played, the Razorbacks scored 1.20 PPP and shot 40% from three-point range. He can help Arkansas generate efficient offense. Robinson, I think, does a great job — maybe better than some of the team’s other guards — of playing with his head up. He did that against North Texas in the exhibition win and wound up with a team-high four assists in 18 minutes. Robinson can make plays as a pure point guard that others can’t or don’t.
Toney will have one of the lowest field goal percentages against when the nearest Arkansas defender
Last season when Arkansas flipped the switch, Moody played a critical role beyond scoring the basketball. From Jan. 20 to March 2, opponents made 18 of 85 (21.2%) field goal attempts when he was the nearest Razorbacks defender. That’s pretty elite shot contesting and utilization of great length. Who can provide something similar for Arkansas this year? Toney is an intriguing candidate for me. He is 6-6 with a 6-8 wingspan and 34.5-inch vertical, which is second best on the team behind Umude. Musselman has said Toney “should be a really good defender,” but some of the defensive team concepts are new to him. More of what he has been accustomed to in the past is solely checking his man on each possession. He will grow, obviously, as a team defender, but I think he can become one of the lockdown wings the Razorbacks are looking for.
Notae will again be top 5 in the SEC in steal percentage
One of the biggest storylines, in my eyes anyway, in the back half of Arkansas’ 2020-21 season was the emergence of Notae as a well-above-average defender, especially on the ball. Even when things weren’t going particularly well for the Razorbacks, Notae would show flashes of what he could be on the defensive end if he were more regularly engaged. In all honesty, we shouldn’t have been wholly surprised by it. In his two years at Jacksonville, he ranked 168th and 101st nationally, respectively, in steal rate. That’s pretty solid stuff. His steal percentage (3.4) rose against better competition at Arkansas. I expect to see Notae continue to come up with steals after jabbing at ballhandlers and slipping into passing lanes. He is a fairly steady deflections player, too.
Chris Lykes will average at least 8 points off the bench
At least for now, it appears Notae, the reigning Sixth Man of the Year in the SEC, will be in the Razorbacks’ starting lineup alongside Davis, meaning Lykes, the 5-7 lightning quick Miami transfer, will serve a bench role. Musselman knows what he is doing. He played the Notae situation very well last season, bringing him off the bench for bursts of offense and many times keeping him on the floor in his closing lineup. We could see something similar from Lykes, who gave Arkansas the jolt it needed after a so-so start against North Texas. I anticipate Lykes leading the Razorbacks in scoring some nights. There may be some games when he just doesn’t have it, but the energy will be consistent. That, paired with his speed and knack for drawing fouls, will make him a productive offensive player.
Arkansas advances to at least the Sweet 16
First, I’ll start with the regular season. I see the Razorbacks winning 11 or 12 of its nonconference games. My best guess is they will enter SEC play with just one loss. The league is going to be tough night in and night out. All but one team (Georgia) is ranked inside the KenPom Top 100 as of the start of the year, so there won’t be any gimmie-type games. Reaching the 13-win mark is attainable, though, and that would make for a nice overall resume for the selection committee.
Making runs in the NCAA Tournament is extremely difficult. Just ask the Illinois team of a season ago, the one that was a No. 1 seed and found itself ranked in the top 10 of The Associated Press Top 25 on nine occasions. The Fighting Illini lost in the second round to Loyola Chicago, essentially run off the floor. For the first time since 1996, Arkansas got a taste of a deep run. This season, the Razorbacks want more and have spoken openly about the rage they are coming into a new year with, eyes set on what lies beyond the Elite Eight. I believe Arkansas will at least get back to the Sweet 16. On paper, this roster is talented enough to get to another Elite Eight and perhaps a Final Four. Will Arkansas play its best basketball in February and March like last season? And can it remain healthy? If those answers turn out to be yes, it is going to be a mighty fun year.