An in-depth look at Arkansas and Kansas State, who are set to tipoff Monday at 8 p.m. in the Hall of Fame Classic in Kansas City. The Razorbacks will face Cincinnati or Illinois on Tuesday:
Arkansas
The Razorbacks have left Fayetteville for the first time this season and are looking to add a pair of wins against Power 5 programs to their resume. Arkansas enters the Thanksgiving week event 3-0 and off a 93-80 win over Northern Iowa last Wednesday.
Redshirt senior guard JD Notae has been the driving force for the Razorbacks offensively, averaging 21.7 points on 47.2% shooting and 3.7 assists per game. He poured in a game-high 30 points and finished with 7 steals in the season opener against Mercer, added 18 points on 13 shots in a win over Gardner-Webb then came up just short of his second career triple-double vs. the Panthers.
The Razorbacks have scored 1.22 points per possession in Notae’s 166 offensive possessions, according to HoopLens analytics, and 1.04 PPP over 46 trips without him. On the other end, Arkansas' opponents have operated at a 0.88 PPP clip when he is on the floor and 1.29 PPP when he is not.
In addition to his strong start to the season scoring the ball, he has a team-high 11 steals and a steal percentage, according to KenPom data, of 5.9%, which ranks 32nd nationally.
Sophomore forward Jaylin Williams’ passing and shot creation for teammates has been an intriguing early story line for the Razorbacks. He leads Arkansas with 17 assists and Notae is second with 11. Williams has either matched or set a career high in assists in four of his last six games dating back to last season.
Chris Lykes, a transfer from Miami, is second in scoring at 15.7 points per game. The electric 5-7 guard is shooting 50% from the floor on 28 attempts and is 6 of 10 from three-point range. Arkansas has also scored 1.22 PPP when he is in the lineup this season, per HoopLens, and shot the three at a 48.6% rate during his run.
Stanley Umude and Au’Diese Toney are two other spring-time transfer portal additions who can be difference makers for the Razorbacks. Toney, who scored all 13 of his points in the second half last Wednesday, is tied for the team lead in total rebounds with 22 and has a team-best 7 offensive boards.
Umude has gotten off to a slower offensive start than he likely imagined, averaging 8.3 points on 45.8% shooting a season after being in the top 10 nationally in scoring at South Dakota. He did, though, finish with 10 points and 9 rebounds in 29 minutes off the bench on Nov. 17.
Arkansas’ offense has been markedly better, according to HoopLens, when he is on the floor: 1.34 PPP on and 0.95 PPP off. Defensively, however, he is tied with Lykes for the most three-pointers allowed (7) when the Razorbacks' nearest defender to a shot.
Davonte Davis, who was assessed a Flagrant 2 and ejected in the second half of the win over Northern Iowa, will be available against the Wildcats, Eric Musselman said Friday. He has scored in double figures in six of his last seven games dating back to last season.
Overall, Arkansas’ offense is running at a 110.9 points per 100 possession rste, which ranks 18th nationally, according to KenPom, and its turnover rate of 13.5% places 15th in the country. The Razorbacks, on the other end, have performed well on the defensive glass, allowing an offensive rebound on only 17.8% of their opponents’ misses (No. 2 nationally).
They have not defended the three-point line well (43.4%) and rank 342nd nationally in that area.
Kansas State
The Wildcats, led by Bruce Weber, who is in his 10th season with the program, enter Monday’s game against the Razorbacks at 2-0 on the season, carrying in home wins over Florida A&M (67-57) and Nebraska Omaha (79-64) in the first week of the season.
Nijel Pack, a 6-0 guard, has been Kansas State’s top offensive weapon through two games, averaging 16.5 points on 57.9% from the floor, including 7 of 11 from three-point range. He scored 18 points in the Wildcats’ season opener then added 15 points and 5 assists last Wednesday in only 20 minutes.
Pack is coming off a strong freshman season in which he started all 24 games when healthy. Last year he became only the third freshman in program history to lead Kansas State in scoring (12.7), joining the likes of Michael Beasley in 2007-08 and Marcus Foster in 2013-14.
According to KenPom data, Pack has assisted on 39.5% of the Wildcats’ scores when in the lineup. That figure places him third among Big 12 players who have been on the floor for at least 40% of their team’s minutes.
Pack, though, is second on his own team in assist rate. Former Arkansas-Little Rock guard Markquis Nowell has posted a two-game mark of 40.3% behind a six-assist effort in the season opener and three-assist night against the Mavericks. His nine assists lead the team.
Nowell is averaging 8.5 points on 30.8% from the floor. He is 2 of 6 on attempts inside the arc and 2 of 7 beyond the three-point line.
The Razorbacks will see a familiar face on the Kansas State side in guard Mark Smith, who played the previous three seasons at Missouri. In four career games against Arkansas he has averaged 11 points on 33.3% shooting. In three meetings a season ago he put up 7.3 points on 21.4% from the floor.
Smith is the Wildcats’ leading rebounder at 7.0 per game.
Selton Miguel, a 6-4 sophomore guard, is averaging 9.0 points and has connected on 8 of 12 field goal attempts. Six of his seven assists this season came against Nebraska Omaha, and Miguel is tied for second on the team with nine defensive rebounds.
Ismael Massoud, a 6-9, 210-pound forward from Wake Forest, has been Kansas State’s highest-usage frontcourt player through two games, playing 70% of the Wildcats’ minutes. He scored 15 points, grabbed 6 rebounds and had 2 blocks against the Mavericks, and poses a perimeter threat the Razorbacks must account for.
Massoud has knocked down more threes (4) than shots inside the arc (3). In his first season with the Demon Deacons he made 40% of his 83 attempts from three-point range.
Other names to know in Kansas State’s frontcourt are Davion Bradford (7-0, 270) and Kaosi Ezeagu (6-10, 255). Bradford, averaging 5.5 points and 4.0 rebounds, is working his way back from a bout with pneumonia, and Ezeagu has been one of the team’s best defensive rebounders.
As a team, the Wildcats have shot it well from three, hitting 18 of 41 attempts, and assisted on 67.3% of their buckets. Turnovers, however, have been an issue at 15 per game. Defensively, opponents have shot 40.3% on two-point attempts and turned the ball over on 21.0% of their possessions.
Player to watch: Nijel Pack
“He had a great finish to our season last year,” Bruce Weber said. “He really stepped it up after sitting out with covid for a stretch in the middle. He has continued that even with the setback of an injury here in the fall. He has a great feel, a great base of the game. He’s an Indiana kid and grew up with Indiana high school basketball. Great fundamentals and can really shoot the basketball. He knows how to get open and I think he’s a little more confident.”
Key player trends
• JD Notae is second on the team with 24 potential assists through three games. He led the Razorbacks with 16 potential assists in Arkansas’ win over Northern Iowa.
• Jaylin Williams leads Arkansas in assists (17) and potential assists (25), and his passes have directly led to 46 points for the Razorbacks. Teammates have knocked down 9 of 13 three-point attempts immediately following a Williams pass.
• Notae has a team-high 11 steals. In the Razorbacks’ last 12 games dating back to last season, he has two three-game stretches in which he has recorded 10 or more steals.
• Chris Lykes has scored 20-plus points in three of his last six games played going back to his final outing of the 2019-20 season at Miami. He played only two games in 2020-21 due to injury. Lykes’ 26 points against Northern Iowa marked the second time in his career he scored 20 or more off the bench.
• Davonte Davis has made 4 of 7 three-point attempts in Arkansas’ last two games. He finished his freshman season 2 of 13 beyond the arc.
• Among players who have received significant playing time, Davis and Au’Diese Toney are in a tie for the fewest scores allowed when the Razorbacks’ nearest defender to a shot. Opponents are 6 of 18 shooting against Toney, including 2 of 11 inside the arc, and 6 of 16 against Davis.
Williams has defended the most shots of any Arkansas player (28), and opponents are 5 of 16 on two-point attempts he has contested.