FAYETTEVILLE — Just before kickoff, an Auburn man provided a condensed, but hugely accurate synopsis of what might lead to an upset of No. 17 Arkansas.
“The Tigers can stop the run and if they catch the ball better than the last two weeks, it might be what they need today,” he said. “They will play the run tough on first down and they’ve dropped 13 passes the last two weeks, some of them in the end zone.”
Never has anyone covered it all in so few words in a pre-game prediction. Mind you he didn’t say it would happen, but that it was one way the Tigers might extend the Arkansas losing streak to three games.
There was one thing left out: what might happen if the favored Razorbacks provided the go-ahead touchdown with a turnover in the end zone in the third quarter. That’s just the kind of help the unranked Tigers needed to rally for a 38-23 victory Saturday at Reynolds Razorback Stadium.
Auburn’s overall line talent has slipped. They don’t have first-round draft picks at almost every spot on the defensive line, and the offensive line isn’t as solid, either. The Tigers aren’t loaded with war daddies like a few years ago.
But they still won more than their share of the battles at the line of scrimmage. The Hogs never got close to a sack of quarterback Bo Nix with a switch to a four-man front. And the Razorbacks either failed to read the run-pass option like in previous weeks, or they couldn’t move Auburn’s front.
It was especially noticeable on first down when the Hogs made just 58 yards on 20 first-down runs. Take away the first two possessions when there were first-down runs of 4, 10, 10 and 5 yards, and the Arkansas running game netted 31 yards on 15 first-down runs. Losing right tackle Dalton Wagner to injury might have been more of a blow than first imagined.
Here’s the telling stat: 11 plays on first-down run calls made no better than a 1-yard gain.
“We couldn’t get on schedule on first down,” Arkansas coach Sam Pittman said.
The Razorbacks (4-3, 1-3 SEC) were winning first down early, but not in the second half. They called nine first-down runs in the third quarter when the Hogs could have taken control of the game.
They made just 17 yards on those first-down plays as the Tigers (5-2, 2-1) beat blockers.
“Physically, we got whipped on both sides of the ball,” Pittman said. “That doesn’t mean you can’t counter that with blitzes (on defense) or some play-action (on offense). But they were better than us.”
Indeed, despite losing some battles up front, there was an obvious path to victory when the Hogs got back-to-back touchdowns to end the first half and open the second. That turned a 14-3 deficit into a 17-14 lead when quarterback KJ Jefferson hit Treylon Burks for touchdown passes of 11 and 30 yards.
The first came on a fake jump pass with 18 seconds left. Jefferson looked like he wanted running back Dominique Johnson on the jump pass in a play similar to the one that failed on the deciding two-point conversion at Ole Miss. Then, he passed to Burks in the end zone to complete a 12-play, 84-yard march.
The Hogs took the second half's first drive 75 yards in six plays. Jefferson, who turned down some open runs to pass in the first half, scrambled for 20 to convert third-and-9. He found Burks on a post to make it 17-14 with 12:30 left in the third quarter.
The Arkansas defense stuffed the Tigers on two straight three-and-outs, but the offense could not add the knockout blow. The momentum vanished when return man Nathan Parodi lost the ball in the sun to lead to a punt that rolled 57 yards to the 11-yard line.
Raheim “Rocket” Sanders made 1 yard on first down. Jefferson, stepping up in the pocket, tripped and fell for a 6-yard sack. On third-and-15, Jefferson was swarmed from his backside, losing the ball that Marcus Harris recovered in the back of the end zone for an Auburn touchdown.
Johnson, who started at running back, made 17 and Jefferson hit Blake Kern for 16 to move the Hogs to the Auburn 37. Things fizzled when De’Vion Warren dropped a pass that probably would have netted 15 yards. Jefferson made just 1 yard on third down and a fourth-and-3 play at right guard was a full yard short.
Nix faked an off-tackle handoff before backing up to fire a deep pass for wide receiver Demetris Robertson behind Hudson Clark. The Georgia transfer had dropped a sure touchdown last week against the Bulldogs, but he grabbed this one and eluded two diving defenders for the 71-yard TD to make it 28-17 with 4:18 left in the third quarter.
“After the defense makes a big stop on fourth down, everyone knows you go (deep) for it on the next play,” Pittman said. “Everyone knows you don’t give up a 70-yarder on the next play.”
But the Hogs did.
Arkansas answered with a 13-play, 75-yard drive. Johnson scored on a 10-yard run.
The Hogs converted three third downs, two on Jefferson passes, but Jefferson was incomplete on a slant for Burks on a failed two-point play. Pittman and the crowd didn’t like the no-call on what looked like pass interference.
There were boos on the next Auburn series when a third-and-6 incompletion drew a pass interference call against Clark on a pass well beyond the sideline boundary. It was the key play in a 12-play drive that set up a 29-yard field goal by Anders Carlson to make it 31-23 with 10:35 left.
The Hogs had nothing left in the tank. They went three-and-out, then did not look close to stopping the Tigers on a 12-play, 75-yard touchdown march that took 6:11 off the clock and made it 38-23 with 2:30 left.
Nix had been content to stay in the pocket for most of the day, but he ended the game with his feet. He circled his left end for six yards on third-and-3. And, he covered the final 23 yards on a quarterback draw, juking safety Simeon Blair in the open field.
Nix was 21 of 26 for 292 yards and 2 touchdowns. He made few mistakes.
Montaric Brown intercepted a deep out late in the second quarter. The Tigers dropped only two of his passes in a big step forward from their problems the last two weeks.
Pittman wasn’t surprised by Nix or the way the Tigers fought. He said they had battled all year, especially in week two in a narrow defeat at Penn State. Still, there was frustration.
Without complaining about the officials, Pittman noted video reviews that went against them, perhaps too close to overrule. They missed on a fourth-down gamble in the first half by the link of the chain on the measurement. They lost another review on what fans saw as a lost fumble by Auburn, a play that seemed similar to a play at Ole Miss that was ruled an Arkansas fumble.
Arkansas led in total yards, 460 to 427. They led in rushing yards, 232 to 135.
Jefferson completed 21 of 35 for 228 yards. He carried 18 times for 66 yards, tops among Arkansas rushers. Sanders was next with 64 yards on 16 carries. Burks caught nine passes for 109 yards.
“But every chance we took went the wrong way,” Pittman said.
Earlier Pittman said, “We had such a great start, but we’ve lost three in a row. That’s on the head coach. I gotta figure it out. It gets frustrating. It feels like we can’t catch a break.”
After playing seven straight weeks, the Hogs are also plugging gaps with a bruised and battered team. Safety Jalen Catalon, preseason All-America, is out for the year with two muscle tears in his shoulder and a broken hand. He’ll have shoulder surgery Monday.
“Mentally, he wasn’t playing his type of ball,” Pittman said. “He came in and we talked about it. I thought he needed to get (the shoulder) fixed.”
Sophomore Myles Slusher started for Catalon. The Hogs played lots of zone early, but switched to more man-to-man coverage in the second quarter. Greg Brooks and Slusher were beaten on a post for a 39-yard TD early in the game.
Wagner, who also missed the Ole Miss game, is sidelined for a few more weeks after finger surgery. Cornerback LaDarrius Bishop sat out with a hamstring injury. Defensive end Markell Utsey, who sustained a knee injury Wednesday, did not play.
Asked about all of those issues, Pittman paused for a long time before answering the question.
“We are not going to quit,” he said. “We all feel like crap (after losing three in a row). But we’ve got a beat up team. The bye week can’t get here fast enough.
“We are trying. But the plays we were making earlier in the year, we are not making now.”
The Hogs will play their eighth straight week before the bye week. They play host to Arkansas-Pine Bluff at 11 a.m. next Saturday in War Memorial Stadium.