FAYETTEVILLE — What a difference four weeks can make.
Arkansas opened 2022 with a less-than-ideal home loss to Vanderbilt, then fought hard in a loss at Texas A&M to drop to 0-3 in Southeastern Conference play for the first time in more than a decade.
The Razorbacks, winners of six in a row, are now one of the hottest teams in the league entering a month that will be pivotal in regards to the postseason.
Here is an analysis of Arkansas’ 6-2 run in January and some of its biggest storylines:
Jaylin Williams and JD Notae grabbed control of the team
It is always a positive when a team has clear-cut leaders in both the frontcourt and backcourt. That is what Eric Musselman has in Notae and Williams, who lead Arkansas in scoring and rebounding, respectively, as well as steals inside the SEC.
Say what you will about Notae’s shot selection, but he has been the Razorbacks’ most consistent scorer all season. He is the lone Arkansas player to reach double figures in every game, and he added at least 15 points in all eight January games. Notae also finished with four or more assists five times.
On Monday, Musselman noted how unique it is to have a player come off the bench one season, win the league’s Sixth Man of the Year award then lead the conference in scoring the next and see no change in personality. That is Notae in a nutshell.
“He doesn't flinch, man. He's steady,” Musselman said. “He is the focal point, obviously we know that, of other teams' scouting reports. He's a focal point defensively. But he really is so tough-minded that it's never really concerned me at all, even at the beginning of the year, how he would react.
“I think he likes playing in big moments. He has great, great, great internal confidence.”
His ability to dribble-drive into the teeth of a defense and get his own shot, set up a teammate or get to the free-throw line is crippling at times for opponents. He scored 40 times inside the arc in January and finished second on the team with 22 scores at the rim.
While he continued to struggle beyond the arc from the left and right wings, he caught fire from the top of the key and hit 8 of 11 attempts. No other Arkansas player made more than four threes from any other area of the floor.
Aiding Notae, Williams came out of his shell on the offensive end, began making his star turn and averaged a career-best 12.9 points per game in January on 47.1% shooting. He put up 6.8 two-point attempts per game during the month, up from 2.5 in November and 5.3 in December.
Beyond the arc, he shot 35.7% on 1.8 looks per game, helping the Razorbacks stretch the floor to open driving lanes for Notae and opportunities for rim cuts for Au’Diese Toney and others.
Williams was a steady force on the glass, too, grabbing 10.9 rebounds per outing, including a career-high 15 against West Virginia. According to KenPom data, he owns the No. 14 defensive rebound rate in the country at 28.7%. In SEC games, he is second only to Oscar Tshiebwe of Kentucky.
Overall, he grabbed 87 rebounds, matching what Bobby Portis did in January 2015. For context, the most rebounds grabbed by Moses Kingsley and Daniel Gafford over a one-month stretch was 71 and 72, respectively. Derek Hood, who holds the program record for rebounds in a season with 349, had 91 in January 1999.
Williams is rebounding at an elite level and the Razorbacks need that to continue.
Notae’s and Williams’ importance in the lineup cannot be overstated. According to CBB Analytics, Arkansas had a net rating (offensive rating - defensive rating) of plus-31.6 in the duo’s 210 minutes together in January.
Over the 24 minutes in which neither player was on the floor, the Razorbacks’ net rating was minus-24.7.
Their on-court synergy is apparent, and it begins behind closed doors.
“Just practice, starting with practice, just knowing the spots each of us like and just working with each other on where we want the ball,” Notae said. “We’ve been talking a lot about just hitting J-Will on the pick-and-roll and then come back off if he needs me to.
“We’ve just been working that two-man game a little more.”
Stanley Umude got serious on the defensive end
In November and December, Musselman a number of times after games pointed out the areas on the defensive end in which Umude was struggling. The 6-6 transfer was either giving up too many threes for the staff’s liking or having lapses and allowing scores on inbound plays — or both.
Perhaps it just took Umude a chunk of games to get acclimated to what the Razorbacks wanted from him defensively. With his mix of athleticism and length, the defensive potential was evident from Game 1. It seemed to simply be a matter of locking in and growing more comfortable — and not letting his offense dictate effort on the other end — in the game-by-game schemes.
If he could do those things, he would blossom into one of the team’s best all-around defenders. In January, he did.
“We were very honest in postgame assessments that he needed to rebound better, especially defensive rebounding, as well as defend,” Musselman said Monday. “You're talking about Stan was strictly a 4 and playing a little bit of 5 early in the year. Now he's played almost exclusively at the small forward spot, so his defensive assignments have become more perimeter oriented and what you would consider harder defensive assignments.
“Yet his productivity defensively has grown, and he's actually playing better defense as a 3-man than he was at the 4 or even some small-ball 5. He's really picked it up tremendously on the defensive end."
He limited opposing players to 14 of 60 (23.3%) shooting when the nearest Arkansas defender last month, including 1 of 22 beyond the arc. His best game came Jan. 22 against Texas A&M (0 of 10).
He did not give up a score or only allowed one score in five games.
The last contested three-pointer made by his assignment was against Vanderbilt on Jan. 4.
“I think he’s moving his feet better and I think he’s much more alert,” Arkansas assistant Gus Argenal said Jan. 20. “Again, I can sense something in him on the defensive side. He’s aggressive, he’s confident and he knows our scouts better than he has. He’s really taking on a role.
“I thought when we were going through our stretch of losing three in a row, the reason he came here, and I remember him saying this to me, he said, ‘Coach, I came here to win big and be in a winning program.’ There was a sense of, ‘I don’t want this to happen,’ and you can see that in his preparation and how hard he’s playing.”
Additionally, Umude recorded seven steals in wins over South Carolina, Texas A&M and Ole Miss, his best total in a three-game stretch in his career. He also had three multi-block games in January.
According to Hoop Lens analytics, the Razorbacks’ defense last month with Umude on the floor allowed 0.88 points per possession and limited opponents to 26.7% from three-point range, down from 36.0% when he sat.
As Arkansas began turning its season around in 2020-21, Moses Moody put together a stout defensive stretch and consistently held his matchups to tough shooting games (18 of 85 over 11 games). Umude is now doing the same.
It will be interesting to see if it continues as the Razorbacks’ schedule gets tougher in February.
Trey Wade answered the call when he got another shot
The emergence of the Wichita State transfer was one of the most intriguing stories in January, and for several reasons. Wade seldom played in the nonconference portion of the schedule.
Until Dec. 21 against Elon, he had not seen the floor for more than 16 minutes in any game. During Arkansas’ six-game winning streak, he has become a staple in the lineup and topped 30 minutes five times. Wade was ready when his name was called.
Musselman recently labeled Wade one of the Razorbacks’ best communicators and buddy coaches on the floor, which is supremely valuable and a case of a vet putting knowledge gained over time to work in the best way.
Offensively, he has supplied the Razorbacks with a jolt as a jump shooter. In the last 6 games, he is 10 of 16 on jumpers, including 5 of 7 from three-point range. Wade finished 9 of 12 shots in the lane in January, too.
Wade enters February with the No. 1 offensive rating in SEC-only games (138.5), according to KenPom.
He has been a plus defensively, as well, and it may be where he has been most impactful. Wade, who has blocked a shot in three straight games, gave up 15 scores on 54 field goal attempts (27.8%) as the Razorbacks’ nearest defender in January.
He consistently contested shots on the perimeter as well, holding his matchup to 1 of 16 from deep. Wade has a bit of a knack for anticipating when a shot is imminent, and he has been able to tally several blocks beyond the arc.
For the month, opposing teams shot 23.6% from three when Wade was on the floor (360 defensive possessions), according to Hoop Lens. That figure rose to 39.1% when he sat.
“When he was given the opportunity, he seized the opportunity, and the team won,” Musselman said. “I think that's important, too. When you hit the floor, how are you playing individually? And then what is the team doing when you're on the floor?
“I think Trey Wade is a great example for all the guys on our roster, whether it's Connor (Vanover) or Chance Moore, everybody, to continue to evolve their game and stay really ready mentally for when they're called upon.”
Au’Diese Toney got back to early season Au’Diese Toney
When Toney plays at a high level, there is a good chance the Razorbacks will, too.
In some ways, he acts as the heart of the team, perfectly capable of infusing energy with great activity off the ball that leads to layups, dunks and offensive rebound put backs. He led Arkansas with 29 scores at the rim in January and 30 in the lane.
Toney added 24 scores in the lane in November and 17 in December.
Here is some context for his January buckets in the lane:
• After cut – 11
• After offensive rebound – 8
• In transition – 6
• Lob – 2
• Drop-off pass – 2
• Loose ball – 1
Entering Wednesday’s game at Georgia, Toney’s offensive rebound rate of 8.8% ranks 18th among SEC players. He is one of only four players 6-6 or shorter inside the top 20.
In January, Toney scored 91 points. It was the second-highest monthly total in his college career (112, February 2020). He is a low-maintenance player on the offensive end, which makes what he did last month all the more impressive.
Arkansas found its identity in a non-traditional lineup
After the Razorbacks’ 0-3 start to SEC play, Musselman did some soul searching.
In desperate need of an identity, he asked himself what his late father, Bill, would do if he were in charge. The answer: Go big and get tougher.
A beefier, more physical lineup was the elixir Arkansas needed to get back to its winning ways and join the postseason conversation.
It began with Kamani Johnson and Wade joining Notae, Toney and Williams in the starting lineup, and it worked like a charm. The Razorbacks quickly jumped on Missouri before Johnson went down with an injury.
Umude then replaced Johnson and Arkansas kept humming.
“I think having a pro background (helps), whether there’s trades or free agency or guys getting called up or sent down,” Musselman said. “In the NBA or minor leagues, you’re used to changing rosters and trying to figure out what’s good for your team. A couple years ago our team turned into a four-guard lineup with Adrio (Bailey) playing the 5, and he was really a small forward.
“Then this year it’s turned into a bigger lineup. The big thing is, usually you’re thinking about how do you get your five best players out there? This year has been a little bit more (about) how do we come up with more of an identity and a style of play?”
The lineup that included Umude closed January by allowing 0.72 PPP over 92 defensive possessions together, according to Hoop Lens, and opponents made just 14.3% of their threes. Offensively, it scored at a 1.17 PPP clip and shot 48.0% from three-point range (98 possessions).
The group, according to CBB Analytics, played 58 minutes over five January games and posted a net rating of plus-42.6. It is filled with “team-friendly” players, Musselman said. Williams agreed.
“To me, I think we've just got five guys on the court that are ready to play, ready to hustle, ready to defend,” Williams said last Saturday. “We're all unselfish guys, so we go out there and do whatever the team needs. We know JD is going to get us a bucket, we know Au’Diese is going to defend, Trey's going to play smart, Stan's going to get a bucket.
“We just all know what we can do and we are just ready to play with each other. We just play hard.”