Analyzing Arkansas' 86-81 loss at Texas A&M

Texas A&M forward Javonte Brown (31) blocks a shot by Arkansas guard Jaxson Robinson (14) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Saturday, Jan. 8, 2022, in College Station, Texas. (AP Photo/Sam Craft)

For seven seasons as a college head coach, Eric Musselman has kept the message that appears on the dry-erase board in his team’s pre-game locker room consistent:

Nine turnovers or less. Take care of the ball. Get a shot on goal.

Musselman’s third team at Arkansas, more than any other group since his first at Nevada in 2015-16, is having a difficult time following those basic instructions and keys to the game. The Razorbacks committed 18 turnovers Saturday in an 86-81 loss to Texas A&M in College Station, Texas.

Arkansas is 10-5 overall and 0-3 to begin SEC play for the first time since 2009. It has lost five of six games since a 9-0 start.

Musselman, whose first Razorbacks team also went through a challenging 1-5 stretch before finishing 20-12 overall in the pandemic-shortened 2019-20 season, said he thought Arkansas’ effort on the offensive and defensive glass was present and noticeable. He liked the physicality the Razorbacks played with there.

They won the rebounding battle 46-32, grabbed 20 offensive rebounds and averaged one second-chance point per miss they corralled. Those numbers typically lead to positive outcomes when playing away from home.

But seemingly after each compliment for a player or facet of the game, he quickly pivoted to Arkansas’ concerning turnover issues.

“Right now, we’re way, way too careless with the basketball,” Musselman said. “We’re playing with good pace, good tempo, one of the faster teams in the country – in the top 20. But along with that you’ve really got to value the ball.

"I don’t mind saying that we have a goal of nine or less turnovers every game. We doubled that up. That’s a major, major problem.”

Starting guard JD Notae, who scored a season-high 31 points, and Davonte Davis combined for nine turnovers. Jaylin Williams, considered one of the top passing big men in the nation, added four. 

Five other Razorbacks had one turnover.

According to KenPom data, Arkansas posted its second-highest offensive turnover rate (23.4%) of the season. The only figure greater than Saturday’s came at Mississippi State on Dec. 29, when the Razorbacks lost 81-68.

“It’s the same thing with our G-League teams,” Musselman said. “(We) always took good care of the ball. We can’t keep threading the needle at the center spot, and then, certainly, our guards have got to understand that our No. 1 priority is to take care of the basketball.

“It’s been an issue for us, without a question.”

A common thread in each of the Razorbacks’ losses is a high number of points off turnovers for opponents. Entering Saturday, Arkansas’ giveaways had led to an average of 21 points in losses to Oklahoma, Hofstra, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.

Texas A&M upped that average with 28 points off turnovers, the second most by a Razorbacks opponent under Musselman. Valparaiso had 30 points off turnovers in December 2019.

Arkansas’ turnover rate in each of the last six games has landed at 18.9% or higher, per KenPom. The Razorbacks topped that mark only twice in their 9-0 start.

“We don’t take care of the ball in transition,” Musselman said. “I want to get out and run. It’s been a staple of our team, but the highest volume of our turnovers don’t come in half-court sets. They actually come in transition, so another area of us trying to improve and get better.

“Whether it’s football turnovers, whether it’s basketball turnovers, whether it’s errors in baseball, those are hard plays to overcome that we’ve got to continue to get better at.”

Arkansas also needs to tighten things up on the defensive end. It posted a defensive efficiency rating, per KenPom, of 111.7, and Texas A&M had an effective field goal percentage of 63.6% — a season high.

The Razorbacks did not provide much resistance around the rim. The Aggies made 23 of 36 (63.9%) two-point field goal attempts, including 12 layups and 2 dunks, according to StatBroadcast. Hofstra (24) is the only team that has made more shots inside the arc against Arkansas this season.

During a couple of critical stretches, the Razorbacks appeared lost defensively. They allowed a 13-2 Texas A&M run in the first half after taking an eight-point lead on a Notae jumper. After halftime the Hogs gave up a back-breaking 16-0 run that put them at a 15-point deficit.

Arkansas clawed back within 79-78 with 1:08 to play, but its inability to get a timely stop shot down hopes of a memorable comeback. Quenton Jackson buried a three-pointer on the right wing with 34 seconds remaining. The bucket looked to be the result of miscommunication on the Razorbacks’ part.

“We’ve got to have each other’s back, man,” Notae said. “We’ve just got to keep fighting and have each other’s back. That’s the main goal, just have your brother’s back.

“That was an opportunity we could have had, but we’ve just got to keep on playing.”