Hogs' opponents taking advantage of 'mixed bag' of miscues

Arkansas guard JD Notae (1) looks to pass against Texas A&M during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Saturday, Jan. 8, 2022, in College Station, Texas. (AP Photo/Sam Craft)

FAYETTEVILLE — Arkansas coach Eric Musselman doesn’t see a common thread when it comes to his team’s turnover troubles of late.

A turnover, simply, is a turnover.

In the Razorbacks’ 0-3 open in Southeastern Conference games, the program’s worst start since 2008-09, they have committed 49 turnovers — an average of 16.3 per game. Five players have at least six in that span.

“It’s been a mixed bag,” Musselman said Monday, two days before a scheduled home game against Missouri  

In terms of the various kinds of turnovers Arkansas had against Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M, Musselman is correct. The Razorbacks gave the ball back in seven different ways, according to the games' StatBroadcast play-by-play feeds, including a lane violation, shot clock violation and a travel.

But nearly 75% of the turnovers fall into two categories: bad pass (19) and lost ball (17). 

Arkansas has also been whistled for nine offensive fouls, three in each game so far.

“We didn’t play with great basketball IQ with our turnovers (against the Aggies) when you go back and watch them,” Musselman said. “It’s hard to talk about transition defense when you have live-ball turnovers, because it’s like in football when a DB gets a pick and he’s got a wide-open field in front of him. Our turnovers are an issue.

“I thought we played really hard against Vanderbilt, but we went through a stretch where we turned the ball over and were careless with the ball. Sometimes those things are too much to overcome.”

Opposing teams have hurt the Razorbacks with points off turnovers in their five losses, to the tune of 22.4 per game. That number dwindles to 11.7 in Arkansas’ 10 victories.

But regardless of the context of the turnover, it is classified as live-ball or dead-ball. Arkansas’ opponents have found great success offensively on both throughout the season.

Musselman said the Razorbacks’ live-ball turnovers have been most damaging given they occur most frequently (12.5% of offensive possessions) and allow an opportunity for a score against a defense that, more than likely, is not set. According to CBB Analytics, teams have averaged 1.11 points per possession this season after Arkansas’ 136 live-ball turnovers.

Opponents have made 39 of 73 (53.4%) two-point attempts and 14 of 41 (34.1%) shots beyond the arc.

“The percentages are saying right now that the live-ball turnovers are the real killers,” Musselman said.

Although the Razorbacks have committed nearly 2.5 live-ball turnovers for every dead-ball turnover though 15 games, the numbers stemming from the latter are jarring. Opponents have scored 1.42 PPP following 55 dead-ball turnovers, per CBB Analytics.

That is the result of knocking down 14 of 19 (73.7%) two-point attempts and 10 of 21 (47.6%) threes. For Arkansas, it could be a case of the struggles of one end carrying over to the other.

“That’s not been anything that we’ve charted,” Musselman said when asked about dead-ball turnovers. “We had an outside company do a self-scout, which I’ve never done mid-year, as well. We’ve always done that at the end of the year. That’s something that I was reading.

“It was 29 pages, and I went through all of that (Sunday) night with notes. Some of the players have already seen their individual write-ups. I’m sure that any time you turn the ball over it is a little bit deflating.”