Advanced stats preview: Arkansas vs. Missouri

Arkansas guard Stanley Umude (0) runs a play against Vanderbilt during an NCAA college basketball game Tuesday, Jan. 4, 2022, in Fayetteville, Ark. (AP Photo/Michael Woods)

FAYETTEVILLE — An in-depth look at Arkansas and Missouri ahead of their matchup in Bud Walton Arena on Wednesday. Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. on SEC Network.

Arkansas

The last month of the season has been a real challenge for the Razorbacks. On Dec. 11, Arkansas fell 88-66 to Oklahoma in Tulsa.

It enters tonight's game against Missouri having lost four of five games since that day. The Razorbacks need a victory over the Tigers to avoid an 0-4 start to Southeastern Conference play for the first time since 2009 and escape the basement of the league's standings.

Offensively, Arkansas has been led by guard JD Notae and wing Stanley Umude, who each have a 28-plus point scoring effort early on in league action. Umude poured in 28 points on 11 of 20 shooting against Vanderbilt, and Notae added a season-high 31 points at Texas A&M last Saturday.

Notae, who did not play in the SEC opener at Mississippi State, is averaging 23.5 points in two conference games on 42.5% shooting and 6 of 15 (40%) from three-point range. He also leads the Razorbacks with seven steals.

In three games against Missouri during the 2020-21 season, Notae scored 16 points per game, including 27 in Arkansas' win at the SEC Tournament in Nashville, Tenn., and 19 in the Razorbacks' home loss to the Tigers last January.

Notae matched a season high with five made three-pointers on eight attempts at Texas A&M over the weekend. He also hit five in the season opener against Mercer.

The SEC's leader in steals, Notae ranks 35th nationally, according to KenPom data, with a steal rate of 4.4%. He has at least two steals in 13 of 14 games played and three games with four or more.

Umude is in the midst of his best offensive stretch with the Razorbacks, reaching double figures in three consecutive games for the first time this season. According to KenPom, he has an offensive rating of 113.9 through three conference games.

The South Dakota transfer has taken 32.7% of Arkansas' shots in league play when in the lineup. That is the second-highest mark among SEC players who have seen the floor for at least 40% of their team's available minutes, trailing only Notae (35.8%).

Jaylin Williams, Arkansas' leading rebounder in SEC play, has grabbed 10-plus rebounds in back-to-back games for the first time in his career. He has 28 boards in three games. No other Razorback has more than 12.

Williams currently ranks in the top 10 in the league in defensive rebound rate (29.6%) and block rate (7.0%). He has six blocks since Dec. 29, his most in a three-game stretch at Arkansas.

In their three SEC losses, the Razorbacks have given up 1.06 points per possession defensively and allowed opponents to hit 55.2% of their two-point looks and shoot 37.7% from distance, per Hoop Lens analytics. Arkansas has an offensive turnover rate of 21.5% in that span.

The Razorbacks rank 11th in the league in two-point field goal defense and 12th defending the three. They are No. 10 in three-point shooting at 29.4%.

Missouri

As Arkansas licks its wounds after a fifth loss in the last six games, the Tigers are riding high into Fayetteville fresh off a 92-86 home victory over Alabama last Saturday to move to 1-1 in the SEC.

The Tigers (7-7) were led by a monster performance from junior forward Kobe Brown, who finished with a 30-point, 13-rebound double-double that earned him SEC player of the week honors on Monday. He hit 7 of 10 shots inside the arc and also lived at the free throw line, making 10 of 11 attempts. 

Brown totaled six points and three rebounds against Kentucky in Missouri’s SEC opener.

A Huntsville, Ala., native and cousin of Arkansas wing Au’Diese Toney, Brown has been a do-it-all player for the Tigers this season. He leads the team in scoring (15.3), rebounding (8.8) and steals (22), and is second in assists with 33 and blocks with 13.

According to Hoop Lens, Missouri has scored 1.11 PPP with Brown on the floor in conference play and posted a solid turnover rate of just 13.9%. When he sits, the Tigers’ PPP figure dips to 0.75 and the turnover percentage climbs to 20.8%.

Amari Davis, a 6-2 transfer guard from Green Bay, is second in scoring at 10.4 points per game. He is the only other Missouri player scoring in double figures. Davis has finished with 10-plus points in 9 of 13 games, but he also has a pair of scoreless games against Northern Illinois and Kansas.

Jarron Coleman, a 6-5 junior, has been the Tigers’ lone consistent perimeter threat since the start of league play. He is 6 of 17 (35.3%) from deep, including 4 of 11 in the win over Alabama, and handed out 6 assists against the Crimson Tide and grabbed 8 rebounds.

Coleman holds an assist rate in SEC games of 31.3%.

Kansas State transfer DaJuan Gordon scored 15 points and hit multiple threes against Alabama for the first time since Nov. 29. A starter in the team’s last 13 games, he ranks 17th in the league in percentage of shots taken when on the floor (26.0%).

Javon Pickett, though he has been a bit inefficient, is capable of a big scoring night. The 6-5 senior forward added a season-high 19 points on 8 of 12 shooting against Kansas on Dec. 11 and is coming off a 15-point showing against the Crimson Tide.

Similarly to the Razorbacks, Missouri has struggled shooting and defending the three. The Tigers rank 352nd nationally in three-point percentage (25.1%) and 332nd in three-point defense (38.1%), per KenPom. Missouri tied a season high with nine made threes in the win over the Crimson Tide.

If the Tigers do have a strength offensively it is hitting the offensive glass. They have corralled 33.6% of available misses, which places 43rd nationally. It could be a key to the game given Arkansas is the eighth-best defensive rebounding team in the country.

Player to watch: Kobe Brown, Missouri

"He’s gotten better," Arkansas coach Eric Musselman said of Brown. "You see great growth in his game, so I’m sure he spent a lot of time in the summer getting better at his craft, because you don’t just get better at your craft unless you really, really, really, really, really, really spend time and work at it. Anybody can get a little bit better incrementally just through experience, but to see a player’s growth like his, been really impressive. He’s one of those unique players in our league that can play facing up or with his back to the basket, and I love his ability to draw free throws attempted. You’re going to have to be a very good, disciplined defender against him and not gamble, because against a guy that's a focal point offensively, discipline becomes really important from a defensive standpoint."

Key player trends

• SEC opponents are 12 of 32 (37.5%) from the floor with Jaylin Williams as the nearest Arkansas defender. Au'Diese Toney has allowed the second-most scores (11) in that span on 21 shots, including 6 of 12 threes. Opposing teams are 10 of 12 shooting against Davonte Davis – 8 of 8 inside the arc.

On a positive note for the Razorbacks, Stanley Umude has held his matchup to 5 of 21 from the floor in league games.

• In the last three games, Umude is 5 of 8 on off-the-dribble midrange jumpers and 1 of 1 on catch-and-shoot two-point jumpers outside the lane. And beyond the arc he has found solid success on spot-up looks from the left wing, hitting 3 of 7 attempts.

• Two of JD Notae's five three-pointers against Texas A&M came off the dribble. It was the first time since Nov. 23 against Cincinnati that Notae sunk a pair of off-the-dribble threes in a game.

• Despite missing the SEC opener, Notae leads the Razorbacks in potential assists in conference play with 24. He had 17 in the team's home loss to Vanderbilt that led to 21 Arkansas points. Davis and Williams have 19 and 18 potential assists, respectively, in three games. No other Razorback has more than nine.

• In SEC games, Arkansas is 17 of 51 (33.3%) on catch-and-shoot threes and 3 of 17 (17.6%) on off-the-dribble attempts beyond the arc.