FAYETTEVILLE — An in-depth look at the Razorbacks and Rebels ahead of their meeting in Oxford, Miss., on Wednesday:
Arkansas
Owners of the second-longest active winning streak in the SEC at four games, the Razorbacks are gunning for their second consecutive win away from Bud Walton Arena prior to stepping outside the league for the Big 12/SEC Challenge this weekend.
Arkansas, even through its 0-3 start in league play, holds the No. 2 defensive efficiency rating in SEC-only games, according to KenPom data, at 92.5. LSU is currently No. 1 (92.4).
Sophomore forward Jaylin Williams has starred for the Razorbacks of late, averaging 13.4 points and 10.8 rebounds in the last five games. He has 4 double-doubles, 13 steals and 6 blocks in that stretch.
Lineups including Williams in those games have allowed 0.84 points per possession and opponents have shot 42.1% on two-point attempts, according to Hoop Lens analytics.
JD Notae, the SEC’s leading scorer at 18.6 points per game, is looking to bounce back from a 6-of-21 shooting night against Texas A&M last Saturday. For the second time this season he finished 2 of 10 from three-point range and fouled out.
Last week, Notae shot 9 of 20 inside the arc, 2 of 13 beyond it and finished with 9 assists and 9 turnovers. The Razorbacks were plus-45 in his 60 minutes.
Stanley Umude, putting up 13.9 points on 48.6% shooting and 4.7 rebounds in SEC games, has grabbed six or more rebounds in three consecutive games for the first time since Jan. 3-8, 2021, when he was at South Dakota. In addition to scoring in double figures in 5 of 7 games, he is second on the team in blocks (8) and third in steals (10).
Notae (12) and Umude (9) are the only Arkansas players with more than three made threes inside the SEC.
Au’Diese Toney is fourth in scoring against league competition at 10.6 points and leads the Razorbacks with 17 offensive rebounds. He has scored in double figures in three straight games for the first time since Arkansas’ stretch against Penn, Central Arkansas and Arkansas-Little Rock.
According to KenPom, Toney has the nation’s 66th-best offensive rating (125.3).
While Davonte Davis enters the game with the No. 20 offensive rebound rate and No. 22 assist rate in league games, per KenPom, the Razorbacks have missed his play in the open floor. In the SEC, he has only three scores in transition — zero since the win over Missouri.
And Trey Wade, since being re-inserted in the starting lineup on Jan. 12, is 9 of 15 on two-point attempts and 3 of 4 from three-point range. He is 7 of 13 on jump shots in the last seven games and No. 6 in offensive rating (126.1) in that span.
Arkansas is expected have forward Kamani Johnson (ankle) back and near full strength against the Rebels. In 11 games this season, he is averaging 3.1 points (9 of 11 shooting) and 3.2 rebounds.
Ole Miss
The Rebels began their three-game homestand this week with a bang on Monday. In a re-scheduled game against Florida, Ole Miss hammered the Gators 70-54 to snap a four-game losing streak inside the SEC.
Kermit Davis’ team improved to 10-9 overall and 2-5 in league games behind 20-plus-point performances from guards Daeshun Ruffin (21) and Matthew Murrell (20). The Rebels held Florida to 4 of 29 from three-point range.
Throughout what has been a challenging season for Ole Miss, perimeter defense has been its calling card. It has held opponents to 28.5% beyond the arc, a mark that ranks 17th nationally, according to KenPom. In SEC play, that figure drops to 27.2% and ranks second only to Vanderbilt.
Ole Miss has also not sent teams to the free throw line often since conference play began. Opposing teams have attempted a league-low 2.25 free throws per 10 shots attempted.
The Rebels have knocked down threes at a 36.8% clip in league games, too. But wins have been tough to come by on account of poor performance in other key areas on both ends of the floor. To this point, they rank ninth or worse in the SEC in offensive and defensive efficiency, turnover rate and two-point field goal percentage.
Murrell, who stands 6-4, leads Ole Miss in scoring in SEC play at 16.0 points per game on 53.5% shooting. He is among the league leaders in three-point shooting as well, hitting 20 of 39 looks, including three or more in 4 of 7 games.
Ruffin is a talented freshman who is second on the team in scoring in the conference (11.3). He ranks sixth in SEC-only games with an assist rate of 33.7% and second in steal rate at 6.1%. Ruffin has six assists in back-to-back games and four steals in two of the last three outings.
The Rebels are 3-1 this season when he scores at least 17 points. Ruffin added a season-high 21 points against Florida.
Nysier Brooks, an imposing 7-0, 245-pound forward transfer from Miami who began his career at Cincinnati in 2016-17, is averaging 10.7 points and a team-high 8.4 rebounds in seven conference games. Per KenPom, he ranks in the top six in SEC games in offensive and defensive rebound percentage and block rate.
Ole Miss has blocked 18 shots inside the SEC. Brooks has 13 of them.
Jaemyn Brakefield (8.6) and Tye Fagan (7.9), who transferred from Duke and Georgia, respectively, round out Rebels players averaging better than 5.0 points in the conference. Brakefield is 16 of 23 on two-point attempts in league games, and Fagan is 9 of 20 beyond the arc.
Luis Rodriguez, a 6-6 small forward, scored 10 points against the Gators on Monday. Ole Miss is also 3-1 this season when he scores in double figures.
The Rebels, according to KenPom, are averaging a league-low 64.9 possessions in SEC games. Arkansas is No. 2 at 72.1, so the clash of styles should be intriguing.
Players to watch: Daeshun Ruffin and Matthew Murrell, Ole Miss
“Ruffin is a dynamic freshman who has great speed. He changes the pace of the game, can get in the teeth of the defense, has great vision. And then Matthew Murrell, at the off-guard spot, (is) shooting the ball at a high, high clip from three and also doing a good job putting it on the deck. Both of those guys (make a) really dynamic backcourt.” — Eric Musselman
Key Razorback player trends
• In conference games, opponents are 8 of 52 shooting, including 1 of 20 from three-point range, when Stanley Umude is the nearest Arkansas defender.
• Umude finished the overtime victory against Texas A&M with nine potential assists. His previous single-game high was five (Gardner-Webb).
• Jaylin Williams has defended a team-high 63 shots in SEC play. With him as the closest Razorbacks defender, league opponents have shot 39.7% overall and 38.8% on two-point attempts.
• Arkansas' most common assist-to-scorer combinations in conference games are Davonte Davis –> Williams (8) and JD Notae –> Williams (8).
• Davis has 14 offensive rebounds in the last five games. Only Au’Diese Toney (15) has more in that span.
• The last three-pointer made by an opponent when Trey Wade was the nearest Arkansas defender came in the Razorbacks’ win over Elon on Dec. 21. Opposing players are 0 of 9 since.
Game prediction
Arkansas 69, Ole Miss 64