Will KJ Jefferson play?
That is the biggest key to this week’s game. With Jefferson, Arkansas has shown the capability to compete with almost any team. The Razorbacks are a mystery offensively without him because he has rarely been off the field the past two seasons.
Jefferson has a 12-8 career record as the Razorbacks’ starting quarterback, including 12-6 since he became full-time starter last season. He has completed 66.1% of his passes for 1,096 yards and 9 touchdowns this season, and has rushed for 312 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Jefferson will travel with the team to Starkville, Miss., and his availability for the game — at least publicly — is not likely to be known until close to game time. Arkansas coach Sam Pittman has been vague about the nature of Jefferson’s injury this week, but noted after last week’s Alabama game that Jefferson had been removed after he hit his head.
Pittman said Jefferson did not practice with the team Monday or Tuesday, but went through team meetings those days. Jefferson practiced Wednesday, Pittman said, adding that players who do not practice by Wednesday generally are unable to play in that week’s game.
“I don’t know what that means, to be perfectly honest with you,” Pittman said of Jefferson practicing Wednesday. “He still has a ways to go on that. We’re certainly not going to play him unless he’s capable and healthy and all those type things. We’re going to take him on the trip, whether he plays or not. We’ve got a few more days to figure that out.”
There is no doubt Jefferson is itching to play in Starkville, a 130-mile drive from his hometown of Sardis in northwest Mississippi. Last year at Ole Miss, Jefferson had one of the best games of his career in his first college game in his home state when he accounted for 411 yards and six touchdowns.
If Jefferson can’t play, Arkansas might give backups Cade Fortin and Malik Hornsby early looks in Starkville, then ride the hot hand. Fortin completed 4 of 10 passes for 35 yards after Jefferson exited last week.
Fortin has overtaken Hornsby for the Razorbacks’ No. 2 quarterback position, Pittman said following the Alabama game, but both bring qualities to the table.
Fortin previously started at North Carolina and South Florida, and showed the ability to lead a long drive against Alabama’s backups that ultimately stalled when a receiver was tackled short of the line to gain on fourth down.
Hornsby, who filled in for Jefferson during the Texas A&M game last season, is one of the team’s fastest players and showed improved passing accuracy during spring and pre-season practices.
“In our game plan, there’s certainly opportunities for both of those kids to play if KJ can’t,” Pittman said.
Together, Fortin and Hornsby give Arkansas some of the qualities lost when Jefferson is not in the game, but neither have shown they have the same dual-threat capabilities. The loss of Jefferson’s leadership skills — he is a team captain who is vocal on the field — must also be factored if he is unable to play.
All we need
Arkansas is established now in its third season under Pittman, but in some ways this game feels similar to when the Razorbacks went to Mississippi State in 2020. The Bulldogs are favored because of their passing game and Arkansas is dealing with missing players.
Some of Arkansas’ top players were injured early during the Mississippi State game two years ago and some presumably were missing due to covid-19 guidelines. Before shouting for the jukebox to be turned on for the first time, Pittman reminded his players of a message he delivered before the game: All we’ve got is all we need.
There might be a similar message before this week’s game in Starkville. In addition to the questions surrounding Jefferson, the Razorbacks have lost defensive backs Jalen Catalon and LaDarrius Bishop to season-ending injuries, and Pittman said on his radio show Wednesday that the team is “beat up,” especially in the secondary.
“We’re trying to get healthy,” Pittman said. “I don’t know exactly the status on several of our kids yet, but we’ll be ready to play.”
The secondary health is concerning not only because Arkansas has been one of college football’s worst teams defending the pass this season, but because the Bulldogs are one of the best teams throwing the ball. Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers ranks third nationally with 343 passing yards per game. He completes 73.1% of his passes, has thrown 19 touchdowns and has been intercepted 3 times in 234 attempts.
The Razorbacks’ defensive backs found themselves chasing the ball too often last week against Alabama — first while reigning Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young was throwing over the top of coverage in the first half, then as back-up quarterback Jalen Milroe and running back Jahmyr Gibbs sliced through with three 70-plus-yard runs in the fourth quarter.
Arkansas has tinkered with some secondary adjustments this week. Hudson Clark, a cornerback who has the Razorbacks’ second-best pass coverage grade, according to Pro Football Focus, has worked as a safety. Pittman previously said Clark was flexible enough to play safety or nickel back.
Receiver Sam Mbake has transitioned to cornerback. Pittman said he told Mbake that he could return to receiver in the spring, but wanted to know if the receiver would be willing to work out as a defensive back. Mbake was eager to do so.
Pittman joked that it instantly moved Mbake up the depth chart from fourth team on offense to the two-deep on defense.
“I mentioned Sam because he had been physical on special teams,” Pittman said of the move, “and he’s got the range and the size and all that.”
Handling blitzes
Pittman, near the end of his opening statement Monday, described in a fairly unique way what he’s seen from the Bulldogs’ defense through five games.
“They attack and blitz a lot,” he said. “They play extremely hard. They’re well coached and there’s a reason they’re 4-1 and ranked in the top 25.”
Pittman added that if Arkansas is not prepared along the offensive line, the Razorbacks could experience issues handling pressure from Mississippi State’s various blitzes. He thinks offensive line coach Cody Kennedy and his veteran front will enter the weekend with a sound plan and execute.
Something to watch when the Razorbacks have possession is success rate on first down. If Arkansas struggles there, the Bulldogs will pounce, Pittman said.
“I think they do about as good of a job as I’ve seen with movement on the defensive line and with linebackers,” he said of Mississippi State. “We’re certainly going to practice the heck out of it. There’s no fear in their defensive coordinator, I’ll say that.”
The Bulldogs are a bit unordinary on defense on account of the number of run blitzes they use. Pittman noted that few teams show a great number run blitzes, but Mississippi State does because it has the personnel to be effective.
According to PFF, the Bulldogs to this point hold the SEC’s No. 11 run-defense grade and the league’s No. 13 pass-rush mark.
“I think we’ve done pretty good against movement,” Arkansas center Ricky Stromberg said. “That’s a shoutout to Coach Kennedy, too. He preps us well every single week. He’s breaking down the blitzes, breaking down how we need to get spotted in our run and our pass (block). It should carry into the game.”
Another point of emphasis for Arkansas in practice this week was quarterbacks and receivers being on the same page when pressure comes quickly. Perimeter players must make themselves available shortly after the ball is snapped, especially if the Razorbacks field a back-up quarterback.
“We’ve got to get the ball out of our hands fast, because they’re sending blitzes,” Arkansas receiver Ketron Jackson said. “I feel like Coach has put in a great plan for it. But we’ve got to be ready for it.
“We can’t have no mistakes and have our quarterback getting sacked.”
Rara Thomas
Mississippi State features solid balance at the receiver position.
Four players have at least 20 catches, which is most in the SEC. Georgia is the only other team in the conference with more than two. Six MSU receivers are averaging 10-plus yards per catch.
But the Bulldogs’ top big-play threat in the passing game is pretty clear, especially after last week’s 42-24 victory over Texas A&M. Rara Thomas leads the team with 359 yards and a per-catch average of nearly 18 yards.
A 6-2, 200-pound sophomore from Alabama, Thomas finished with 5 catches for a career-high 134 yards and 1 touchdown against the Aggies. In a pair of SEC games, he is averaging 4.5 catches for 100.5 yards.
“(He’s a) work in progress. He’s improving,” Mississippi State coach Mike Leach said. “Explosive, tall guy that comes out of his cuts pretty quickly. I think his best football is ahead of him, but he’s made some good plays.”
Thomas last week caught a 75-yard touchdown pass from quarterback Will Rogers that tied for the longest passing play under Leach, who is in his third season with the Bulldogs.
The Razorbacks should be familiar with the receiver’s explosive-play tendencies. In the teams’ meeting in Fayetteville last year, Thomas recorded a pair of touchdown catches as part of a four-catch, 63-yard day. His second touchdown came in the fourth quarter from 37 yards away.
Eleven of Thomas’ 20 catches this season have moved the chains. Six have resulted in 20-plus yard gains. He has 11 such catches in his career.
According to PFF, Thomas has played 119 of his 121 passing snaps out wide, so there is a decent chance if the Razorbacks show man coverage that he is matched up often with Arkansas’ Dwight McGlothern, who is tied for the SEC lead with three interceptions.
Should Arkansas go to its double-cloud coverage, the Razorbacks’ safeties must be on their toes with Thomas.
Pool in coverage
There will be no shortage of opportunities for Bumper Pool to make plays Saturday against the Bulldogs. And he very well could become Arkansas’ all-time tackle leader in the game.
In 2020, Pool made a career-high 20 tackles during the Razorbacks’ 21-14 victory in Starkville, and he tallied 10 more in last season’s meeting. Pool is well aware how vital his performance is in Arkansas attempting to slow Mississippi State’s passing game and potentially snapping a two-game losing streak.
He appeared confident this week that he can and will get the job done.
“The key to making plays is being able to be in the right positions,” Pool said. “If we can see what they’re doing pre-snap, it helps us out. And then it’s about being able just to run to the ball, being ferocious and trying to get as many hits on those guys as we can.”
Will Rogers’ most often-thrown pass this season, according to PFF, is 1 to 9 yards downfield and over the middle, where Pool will likely be stationed in Arkansas’ double-cloud coverage.
Mississippi State, like no other team Pool has faced in his college career, tests his coverage skills and open-field tackling ability. In 2020, he was targeted 16 times in the passing game. He was targeted eight times in 2021, per PFF.
Outside of the Bulldogs, the most targets against Pool in any game is seven.
Two years ago, as the Razorbacks ended a 10-game overall losing streak and 20-game slide in conference play in Starkville, Pool recorded a career-high two pass breakups. A few more, and a sound tackling day, would greatly benefit Arkansas.
“We’ve got to continue to lock in to the game plan for four quarters,” Pool said.
Rocket on the road
Raheim “Rocket” Sanders’ first road trip to the state of Mississippi in 2021 was memorable.
As a freshman, the explosive and hard-running back rushed for a then-career high 139 yards on 17 carries during Arkansas’ 52-51 loss at Ole Miss. On that day, Sanders began to emerge as a player who could potentially lead the Razorbacks’ talented group of tailbacks.
This season, he has carried the ball at least 17 times in each game and topped last year’s rushing total against the Rebels twice. Sanders enters the weekend as the SEC’s leading rusher and nation’s No. 5 runner with 609 yards. He has 100-plus yards in four games this season, all in Fayetteville.
Can he recapture his road success this weekend? In 2021, splitting carries with Trelon Smith and Dominique Johnson, Sanders averaged 5.9 yards per carry in road and neutral-site games.
In six games played away from home and on 18 fewer carries, he came 10 yards shy of matching his home-game rushing total (294).
On Sept. 24, Sanders was limited to a season-low 68 yards against Texas A&M. But he bounced back with a 101-yard effort against Alabama last weekend, the type of performance that can give a player a shot of confidence, so expect Sanders to not only be counted on for roughly 20 carries, but produce like he has much of this fall.
His willingness to stand tall and tough in pass protection could come in handy, too. According to PFF, he has a pass-blocking grade of 81.1 this season.
Cowbells
No SEC football venue is as loud as Davis Wade Stadium.
The combination of around 60,000 fans ringing cowbells while the in-stadium speakers blare music up to 11 between plays can make for an ear-splitting experience. Ear plugs or aspirin — or both — are recommended when attending games there.
Arkansas practiced indoors on multiple occasions this week, which allowed the team to simulate the noise it will encounter in Starkville. Most of the Razorbacks’ players have not experienced a full cowbell experience. When Arkansas played there two years ago capacity was limited to 13,564.
“You know, I talked to some people that have played them and they said it is louder than loud in pregame,” Pittman said. “Then their fans have certainly abided — or whatever word you want to use — by the rule once the…quarterback is underneath the center, then they can’t do it anymore.”
Revenge factor
An unranked Arkansas team has beaten Mississippi State in its first week as a ranked team the past two seasons.
The Bulldogs were No. 16 in the Associated Press Top 25 poll when the Razorbacks 21-14 in Starkville two years ago, and entered the College Football Playoff rankings at No. 17 a few days before their 31-28 loss at Arkansas last season.
Mississippi State likely thought it had won last year’s game when Jo’quavious Marks caught a 15-yard touchdown pass with 2:22 remaining, but Arkansas responded with a 10-play, 75-yard drive capped by Dominique Johnson’s game-winning touchdown run with 21 seconds to play.
Remarkably, the Bulldogs had a chance to tie at the end, but a field goal was no good — Mississippi State’s third miss of the day.
As hard as coaches try to temper the results of past meetings, players do not forget. Mississippi State will be motivated to get back on the right side of a series it owned in 2018 and 2019, when the Bulldogs won by a combined score of 106-30.