Told that one of the most famous sports handicappers in the country said Arkansas could be favored in as many as nine games in 2017, incredulity was immediate.
Seven games, maybe; eight at the most.
Even though USA Today carried Danny Sheridan’s daily odds on sporting events for 30 years, and his work is so well known that he has been parodied on “Saturday Night Live” more than once, surely he was wrong on this occasion.
Fayetteville-based Bart Pohlman made available his 12-minute-plus radio interview with Sheridan and I prepared to listen and take notes for use in debunking Sheridan’s logic about the Razorbacks’ favoritism in 75 percent of the games.
Right off, Sheridan mentioned Florida A&M, New Mexico State, and Coastal Carolina and labeled them cupcakes. No argument there.
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Texas A&M is average, he said, adding that he could see Arkansas being favored over the Aggies in Arlington. Big on home field advantage, he said the Razorbacks would be favored in Fayetteville against TCU, Mississippi State and Missouri.
Well, yeah, guess so.
“South Carolina. Are you going to tell me in one year under (Will) Muschamp, better than Arkansas, I don’t think so,” Sheridan said.
Another tepid affirmation of the pro’s opinion was the response.
For those who have lost count, that is eight games in which Arkansas could be favored.
Ole Miss is an unknown quantity, Sheridan said. Agreed. So, nine is possible, an admission that foils somebody intent on being a contrarian.
Sheridan described Arkansas’ schedule as very favorable, adding, “If you look at it, you have to assume they win at least nine games. I don’t think they will.”
The recipe for Arkansas to win nine involves sweeping the Mississippi schools, the opponents from the SEC East, and former Southwest Conference members A&M and TCU.
Sheridan couldn’t decide between 7-5 and 8-4 and reserved the right to change his mind, a segue of sorts to the annual game-by-game prediction of Arkansas’ season by somebody who got the 7-5 right and some individual games wrong in 2016.
Before digging into the 2017 schedule, the need for improvement in the offensive line is at the top of the list of long-held concerns. The defense is bound to be better against the run than the group that gave up 5.91 yards per rush — 126th out of 128 FBS teams — but it is too much to expect Paul Rhoads’ unit to become Alabama-like overnight. So, the onus is on the offense.
If protected, quarterback Austin Allen is capable. If there are holes to hit, Devwah Whaley, who is more explosive than Rawleigh Williams, and the freshmen likely to back up Whaley, will be productive. Other than center Frank Ragnow, the jury is out on the guys up front.
Without further delay:
—Sept. 9, TCU, in Fayettevile. For a moment, forget quarterback Kenny Hill. The Horned Frogs’ names to remember are Sonny Cumbie and Sonny Dykes. Cumbie and Doug Meacham were hired a few years ago to revamp TCU’s offensive philosophy, but Meacham departed and calling plays is on Cumbie. He will get advice from Dykes, an advocate of the “Air Raid” offense, who was fired at California and is a TCU consultant. Hill produced 470 yards against Arkansas last year and the Razorbacks’ pass defense could be vulnerable. TCU 31, ARKANSAS 28.
—Sept. 23, Texas A&M, in Arlington, Texas. The Aggies are likely to go with pure freshman Kellen Mond or redshirt freshman Nick Starkel at quarterback, but even if Kevin Sumlin falls back on senior Jake Hubenak, advantage Arkansas with Allen. Myles Garrett, the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft, and senior Daeshon Hall formed a formidable pass-rushing twosome and the Aggies can’t simply plug in replacements. It’s time for UA coach Bret Bielema to get his first W against the Aggies. ARKANSAS 27, TEXAS A&M 21.
—Oct. 7, at South Carolina. The Gamecocks’ offensive threats include Jake Bentley, who completed 66 percent of his passes for 1,420 yards even though he didn’t play until late October, and running back Rico Dowdle, who rushed for more than 125 yards in three of the final five games of the regular season. On the other hand, the Gamecocks had only three scholarship linebackers in the spring. With Missouri and Kentucky and two non-conference games in September, the Gamecocks could get off to an excellent start. SOUTH CAROLINA 28, ARKANSAS 24.
—Oct. 14, at Alabama. Forget the details. Arkansas will compete and Alabama will win. Quarterback Jalen Hurts should improve, running back Bo Scarbrough is scary good when healthy, and new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll was hired away from the NFL with the idea of making more use of Alabama’s wide receivers and tight ends. Oh, and the Crimson Tide will play good defense. ALABAMA 31, ARKANSAS 14.
—Oct. 21, Auburn, in Fayetteville. Auburn is trending among college football experts and is likely to be ranked in the preseason Top 10. Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham was impressive in the spring and Chip Lindsey was hired to diversify an offense that attempted less than 290 passes in 13 games. In the first scrimmage of the spring, Auburn threw twice as much as usual. The defensive front won’t be as good without Montravius Adams, but the offense might be best in the league. AUBURN 35, ARKANSAS 24.
—Oct. 28, at Mississippi. A coaching change and self-imposed bowl ban are bound to hurt the Rebels’ mindset sooner or later, and additional penalties are possible. On top of that, the Arkansas game comes after Ole Miss plays back-to-back games at Alabama and Auburn, then faces a competitive Vanderbilt, and LSU in Oxford. Quarterback Shea Patterson and his receivers are dangerous, but Arkansas should have a mental edge. ARKANSAS 28, OLE MISS 27.
—Nov. 11, at LSU. Whether or not the Tigers defeat Alabama a week earlier, LSU can’t be as jacked for the Razorbacks as they were for the Crimson Tide.
LSU fans believe new offensive coordinator Matt Canada is going to improve the play of quarterback Danny Etling with alignments and creative plays.
Maybe Canada will work wonders with Etling. Even if he doesn’t, the Tigers have more athletes than Arkansas. LSU 21, ARKANSAS 17.
—Nov. 18, Mississippi State, in Fayetteville. MSU’s Nick Fitzgerald threw the ball 361 times, ran 196 times, accounted for more than 4,100 yards and could be the All-SEC quarterback. But, he does not have sufficient help. A year ago, the Bulldogs were 111th in total defense and 120th in pass defense. As a result, they have their fourth defensive coordinator in four years. ARKANSAS 35, MISSISSIPPI STATE 24.
—Nov. 24, Missouri, in Fayetteville. Drew Lock’s numbers are almost as confounding as Arkansas losing last year to a Missouri team that won only one other SEC game. Against Arkansas, Lock averaged almost 17 yards per completion. In four other games, he had multiple interceptions. Same as with Mississippi State, Arkansas should have more talent. ARKANSAS 31, MISSOURI 20.
The final tally is 7-5, but the in-season predictions could be reversed on at least four games — TCU, Texas A&M, South Carolina and Ole Miss.
A version of this article previously appeared in Hawgs Illustrated