LITTLE ROCK — Although decibel levels would vary dramatically, the sing-song “overrated” chant will be appropriate Saturday afternoon in Bud Walton Arena, no matter whether the winner is Arkansas or Texas A&M.
If the Razorbacks prevail, Arkansas fans can invoke the mantra to ridicule the Aggies. Once No. 5 in the country and a fixture in NCAA Tournament bracket speculation even when they were 0-5 in the SEC, the Aggies would be two games below .500 in the SEC and in serious jeopardy.
Before losing at Missouri this week, the Aggies were a No. 7 seed, according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, and the Razorbacks were a 10.
If the Aggies win in Fayetteville, “overrated” would apply to the advantage the Razorbacks are supposed to have on their home court, where they are 13-1 this season.
Regularly, SEC announcers plug the perceived edge. On Tuesday night, with six minutes left in the game at Ole Miss, they touted the Kentucky at Arkansas telecast on Feb. 20 and referenced the advantage they claim belongs to the Razorbacks at home.
Agreed, fans can be a source of energy for the players, but they don’t put the ball in the basket and that is the bottom line. And, the announcer who suggested recently that officials will call a foul on the visitors most any time a player on the home team drives to the basket was way off base.
Anyway, take a look at what has happened around the country.
When the Division I men’s basketball committee released its in-season rankings for the first time, Virginia, Villanova, Xavier and Purdue were No. 1 seeds while Auburn, Kansas, Duke and Cincinnati were in the No. 2 slots.
Virginia lost at home the day before the rankings were released, Villanova lost to St. John’s at home a couple of days earlier and Purdue did the same vs. Ohio State. That same week, Auburn lost at home and, the previous week, ditto for Kansas. Also, that week, nationally ranked Arizona lost at home against an unranked opponent for the first time in 78 games.
Despite being the visitors, the winners generally shot better than the losers.
For example, St. John’s made 49 percent of its attempts vs. Villanova and the Wildcats made less than 42 percent, including 8-of-33 three-pointers. In the Virginia loss, the winners shot 43 percent from the field and the losers 34 percent.
Both made 11 threes, but the Cavaliers attempted 38 vs. 29 for the Hokies.
As for Arkansas’ chances against A&M, every game is different and carryover from a midweek game to a weekend contest is not a given.
An unexpected opportunity to sup with a granddaughter postponed viewing the first half of Arkansas’ victory at Ole Miss, but, once back home, the first thing heard was how the Razorbacks were “wearing out” the Rebels inside. Such is a development is unlikely against the Aggies’ 6-foot-10, 240-pound Robert Williams and 6-foot-10, 265-pound Tyler Davis.
Just as unlikely is that Daniel Gafford and Darious Hall will make a combined 11-of-18 from the field on their way to 33 points, or that they will collect 17 rebounds as they did against the Rebels.
Texas A&M out-rebounded Arkansas by 15 and held Gafford to five points during an 80-66 Aggies win in College Station last month.
Still, the Razorbacks have the Aggies outmanned on the perimeter and should win if they shoot a decent percentage. Not only does Arkansas have three senior guards, but A&M’s senior point guard Duane Wilson suffered a season-ending knee injury last Saturday, one freshman guard has been suspended indefinitely, and another has been dismissed from the team.
Beating the Aggies is the first step on a straightforward path to the NCAA Tournament for Arkansas. Lose in Fayetteville and things get dicey.
At 7-6 in the SEC after the much-needed road victory over Ole Miss, the Razorbacks have games against three of the five teams in front of them in the SEC standings, and two of the three teams that are one game behind them.
At least four of those five opponents are expected to make the NCAA Tournament.