Although seven games remain in the regular season, wide open is the cliché confidently applied to the SEC Tournament.
The two league leaders have lost a total of 10 conference games and the three worst teams in the conference have won 16. Not that South Carolina or Ole Miss or Vanderbilt is going to win five games in five days in St. Louis, but the Gamecocks, Rebels and Commodores are capable of knocking out a favorite that has an off-day shooting.
Just last Saturday, Ole Miss lost to Tennessee — maybe the most complete team in the league — by only eight despite missing 22-of-23 3-point attempts, South Carolina took Mississippi State into overtime in Starkville, and Texas A&M had to shoot 59 percent from the field to defeat Vanderbilt by eight. LSU, a 10-time loser, is 2-0 vs. Arkansas, which locked up an NCAA Tournament bid by beating Auburn Tuesday night in Fayetteville and can tie for third.
Adding to the confusion, preseason favorite Kentucky has won four straight conference games by double digits after a 6-7 start. Coach John Calipari gets much of the credit for the turn-around, but it also helps that the Wildcats have made 45 percent of their 3s during the winning streak.
Getting a handle on the tournament outcome is as difficult as coming up with a foolproof explanation for Arkansas’ wins and losses in the SEC. Searching the box scores for something definitive, there is an outlier in virtually every category.
The quest began with the game-by-game production of the Razorbacks’ most prolific scorers — Daryl Macon and Jaylen Barford.
Among the hypothesis:
—If they total 40 or more, Arkansas wins. Correct in five of six games. In a loss to Florida, Barford had 28 and Macon scored 13.
—Arkansas needs at least a half-dozen 3s from Barford/Macon for the Razorbacks to win. True in eight of 10 league wins. But, they only totaled three 3s in victories over Missouri and Alabama and made six or more in losses to Florida, Kentucky and A&M.
—If Daniel Gafford scores 15 or more, Arkansas wins. Seven of eight of occasions, that has been accurate. But, he scored 17 in a loss at Mississippi State in early January.
Even a personal conviction — shoot good, you win; shoot bad, you lose — is off base on occasion.
Through the first 17 conference games, Arkansas had a better field goal percentage than its opponents 12 times and won 10 of those games. In the losses, Mississippi State outdid the Razorbacks 24-5 from the free throw line and LSU made half of its 30 3-point attempts. In the other five losses, Arkansas’s opponent had a better shooting percentage than the Razorbacks.
Losses to MSU and Florida and a victory over Ole Miss also contradict the theory that Arkansas wins if it shoots 40 percent or better from 3-point range and loses if shoots 38 percent or worse. Mississippi State’s abundance of free throws has already been cited and the Gators made 52 percent from behind the arc.
In Arkansas’ 75-64 win over Ole Miss, the Razorbacks made only 30 percent vs. the Rebels’ 32 percent from long range, but Ole Miss connected on only 18 field goals in 40 minutes.
All this to say that every game is different — 40 minutes of back and forth, with runs and cold spells — and that no shooter makes the same percentage game after game.
Week after week, SEC games are decided in the final two minutes or so and there is every reason to believe the ultra-competitive contests will continue in St. Louis.
For the Razorbacks, the only question prior to the tournament is whether they will earn a double bye to Friday’s quarterfinals by winning at Missouri on Saturday.