FAYETTEVILLE — When it's time to break down the matchups each week, most can handle them with ease.
For instance, this week, it's clear that Auburn has been better on defense than Arkansas. Offensively, Arkansas has shown an edge, especially when you look at the games against quality competition.
Arkansas junior Austin Allen has been the better quarterback as far as the passing game. Yes, Auburn sophomore Sean White leads the league in completion percentage with just under 70 percent. But there is a clear difference in big plays with Allen throwing for 674 more yards and 12 more touchdowns.
Both teams average just over 6 yards per play on offense. Auburn allows just 5.1 on defense, while the Hogs give up 6.4.
If there is a difference in the offensive numbers, they come against Power 5 teams. Arkansas has averaged 32 points against TCU, Texas A&M, Alabama and Ole Miss. Auburn has averaged just 21 against Clemson, Texas A&M, LSU and Mississippi State.
Those offensive point totals slip when you take out Mississippi State, perhaps the weak sister in the SEC West this season. The Tigers scored 38 against the Bulldogs two weeks ago. Without that number, Auburn averaged 15.7 against Clemson, Texas A&M and LSU.
So could this be a low-scoring game? What would be the tipping point in that kind of a game?
Yes, it might be the kicking game. Arkansas has an advantage in punting where Toby Baker is having an All-SEC type season, averaging 47.2 yards per attempt. That's considerably better than Auburn's Kevin Phillips at 40.5.
Ah, but what about field goals? That's the sticking point in this game. Daniel Carlson may be the nation's best. The 6-4 junior won the LSU game with a perfect six-for-six – to tie the SEC record – to account for all of the Auburn scoring in an 18-13 victory.
Carlson is 13 of 14 to lead the SEC at 92.4 percent. He is the all-time leader at Auburn with a career percentage of 83.1. He's also the nation's best kickoff man with a 96.7 touchback percentage with an active streak of 30 straight going into the Arkansas game.
Last year when the Hogs outlasted the Tigers, 54-46, in overtime, Carlson got only one chance, but it was a dagger. He nailed a 41-yarder with four seconds left in regulation to tie the game.
Interestingly, Arkansas coach Bret Bielema may be getting his field goal unit right at just the right time. Adam McFain moved into the field goal role two weeks ago after Cole Hedlund missed from 44 yards against Alcorn State.
McFain, a senior from Greenwood, has made three straight. He hit a 25-yarder against Alabama, then handled heavy winds to nail kicks from 43 and 36 yards in last week's victory over Ole Miss.
McFain went 7 of 10 two years ago as the Hogs' kicker, but was injured and beaten out by Hedlund last year. The injuries were the talk Tuesday when he came to the interview room. Legend had it that McFain's injuries started in a game of frisbee golf.
“I was hurt pretty much all of last year,” he said. “It started with a quad pull in the summer, then a groin injury. My leg was just never healthy.
“I was out kicking in the early summer and that was when I injured my quad. I thought I was about over it and was with my family over Fourth of July. We were at a pool, and I hurt it again on the diving board.”
McFain battled back from the injury to get back into the kicking competition with Hedlund during the season, then pulled his groin muscle.
Just for the record, was there ever a game of frisbee golf? Has he ever played that game?
“No sir,” he said. “Never.”
The “other” game in Hedlund's background is soccer. He was a standout center midfielder growing up. He started on the Greenwood High School team as a ninth grader. He handled penalty kicks and corners with the strongest leg on the team.
“I'd played football growing up, but I had decided to give up football and concentrate on soccer,” he said. “That was between my ninth and 10th grade year. That's when my soccer coach pulled me aside. He asked me to reconsider.
“That was Chris Young. I still thank him for doing that. I still talk to him about every week.”
Hedlund has been the clear leader in practice competitions over the spring and into the fall, but McFain was ready when there was an opening.
“Cole's percentage was better, but mainly I was kicking the longer ones,” he said. “I wasn't missing many, probably hitting 90 percent for the fall. But I wasn't starting until about the 39. A lot of my tries were from longer distance.”
Bielema maintained that McFain might be the man if the Hogs needed something long, but he's going to do everything now.
“My confidence is pretty high after the last two weeks,” McFain said. “After last weekend against Ole Miss, it's way up there. To be a part of a big SEC win really makes your confidence soar.”
The atmosphere should be fun Saturday night at Jordan-Hare Stadium. McFain looks forward to it.
“It should be crazy,” he said. “I am not going to lie and say it doesn't change things to go on the road. It does. But you just block it all out and do your job, focus on the routine.”
How would it be to go onto the field for a game winner?
“That's what you live for,” he said. “Yes, sir. That would be a lot of fun.”
Distance is his speciality, but he finally won the job because of consistency.
“Coach B has had me kicking those over 50 yards in practice,” he said. “So I'm fine with that. I've been hitting them from 53 pretty consistently. I can go a little higher than that.”
Perhaps the Hogs do finally have someone to match with the SEC's best. So knock that off the list as far as one of the keys to victory for the 5 p.m. Start in Auburn. ESPN has the game with Joe Tessitore and Todd Blackledge handling the broadcast for the third straight Arkansas game.
1. Protection, Part 1
Yes, the Hogs have to run the ball, but the big job this week is to give Austin Allen some time. Auburn defensive end Carl Lawson isn't the only pass rusher to worry about, but he's the biggest threat. Lawson has been the key for the Auburn defense the past two seasons. Lawson missed seven games last season with injuries. In those games, the Tigers had just seven sacks. In the games Lawson has played over the last two seasons, the Tigers have 26 sacks. He had two sacks and a forced fumble to earn SEC defensive lineman of the week in Auburn's victory over Mississippi State.
2. Protection, Part 2
Marlon Davidson, Montravious Adams and Dontavius Russell are the other three starters in the Auburn defensive front, perhaps the second best group in the SEC behind the Alabama front four. Russell and Adams man the tackle spots and no one has blocked them all season. They will be a huge challenge for Arkansas guards Hjalte Froholdt and Jake Raulerson, both improving but still not on the level of the Auburn tackles.
3. Separation
The Arkansas wide receivers are among the league's best, but they will be pressed at the line by Auburn corners Carlton Davis and Joshua Holsey, both big and strong. Nickel back Jonathan Ford leads in tackles with 37, including 4.5 for lost yardage. Auburn, like Alabama, likes to play bump and run coverage on the outside with a huge emphasis in hand play. Can Drew Morgan, Keon Hatcher, Jared Cornelius, Cody Hollister and Dominique Reed get early separation to give Allen a throwing lane? That will be a big key.
4. Road Warriors
How will the youngsters in the starting lineup handle a true SEC road game? It's the first of the season, noting that Texas A&M was at a neutral site. The Hogs did win at TCU early this season, ending a 14-game home winning streak for the Frogs. Arkansas won at Tennessee, Ole Miss and LSU last year. Playing a night game at Jordan-Hare isn't easy. The Hogs have practiced with high noise levels inside this week. Hand signals at the line of scrimmage is the plan instead of voice audibles.
5. Help the Safeties
Auburn's single wing-styled running game puts a heavy load on the defensive safeties. Secondary coach Paul Rhoads, a free safety in college, has seen it before and has put an emphasis on eye discipline for his group in practice this week. The safeties tackled better last week against Ole Miss than the previous week against Alabama. This will be another tough test with most of the running plays designed to bring safeties to the line of scrimmage. The front seven didn't get off blocks against Alabama, but did provide help in the running game against Ole Miss. Can the linebackers provide some help? Dwayne Eugene will be making his second start. He made some mistakes against the Rebels. Can he clean those up against the Tigers?
6. The Run
Auburn's plan under Gus Malzahn is complex, but the goal is simple. Run the ball and stop the run. It's similar to what Arkansas coach Bret Bielema believes. The Hogs were effective in the run game last week against Ole Miss. Rawleigh Williams rushed for 180 to earn SEC offensive player of the week. Can he find some room up front against a good Auburn run defense? The Tigers allow just 147.2 on the ground, while their offensive unit rushes for 262.8. The Hogs have to pull those numbers closer together to have a good chance to pull an upset.
7. Austin Allen
Can the Hogs get the game to the fourth quarter? If they can, Allen has been the man. He's produced big plays in the passing game to help the Hogs win late against Louisiana Tech, TCU and Ole Miss. He played hard and well in the fourth quarter against Texas A&M and Alabama, but the Hogs were too far behind. He can win a big game in the fourth quarter, that much is known. The Hogs have to get him there. Allen is the only quarterback in the nation to throw for at least two touchdowns in every game this season.
8. The Second Quarter
That's been the key for both teams all season. Auburn has won the first quarter, 52-17. Arkansas owns the first quarter by a 76-27 count. It's the second quarter where things get interesting. There's been a lull in the second quarter for the Hogs where they've been outscored, 66-64. Auburn wins the second quarter, 71-30.
9. Trickery
Auburn is coming off an open date. It's the second straight week for the Hogs to get a foe with a rest. What has Malzahn added to the playbook? His list of trick plays is extensive. There is going to be a pass thrown by someone other than the quarterback. There will be reverses. Count on it. Can the Hogs handle a few off-the-wall calls by Malzahn?
10. The Juice
Who has it? Arkansas expended a lot of emotion last week in a gutsy performance against a good Ole Miss team. Auburn was licking its wounds, idle. Wide receiver Drew Morgan likes to reference “the juice” in his motivational talks to teammates. Will the Hogs have enough for Auburn, clearly with a full tank in hopes of avenging a four overtime loss last year in Fayetteville? Bret Bielema generally does a good job as far as finding the right buttons to push. He embraced fall break this week, with no classes Monday and Tuesday, to change his practice schedule. Normally, Sunday is a light practice, with nothing on Monday except voluntary meetings. Bielema didn't take the team on the field Sunday to give extra recovery from the game Saturday night. It could pay dividends with one more day of Auburn prep. The Hogs may have the juice.