Background
Arkansas coach Eric Musselman kicked off the second week of June by adding another graduate transfer to the 2020-21 roster. Indiana forward Justin Smith, who announced plans to transfer from the Hoosiers on May 22, committed to Arkansas on Monday.
Smith is the third grad transfer to commit to Arkansas this spring, joining Vance Jackson (New Mexico) and Jalen Tate (Northern Kentucky). Jackson and Tate both pledged in April and signed days later. All three players will be eligible next season.
Smith (6-7, 230 pounds) spent the previous three seasons at Indiana. He led the Hoosiers in minutes played in 2019-20 and earned a starting nod in all 32 games.
Smith averaged 10.4 points on 49.2 percent from the floor and 5.2 rebounds last season for Indiana, which finished 20-12.
In December, Smith scored six points and finished with eight rebounds in Indiana’s home loss to Arkansas. He combined for three points and one rebound in two games against the Razorbacks as a sophomore.
I recently reached out to Alex Bozich of Inside The Hall and Jon Blau of the Bloomington Herald-Times to get some more insight on what Arkansas is getting in Smith next season.
Strengths
• Athleticism stands out. Smith, from Buffalo Grove, Ill., has recorded a 48-inch vertical jump. That is pretty special and something Arkansas fans hope to see on display in the coming months. While Smith might be a bit limited in terms of shooting the ball, you’ll likely be able to find him operating 10-12 feet and in offensively.
Bozich says Smith’s athleticism allows him to be a pretty productive player in transition. According to HoopLens analytics, Smith posted a points above median figure — the number of additional points a player scores when compared with what an average player would have scored with those shot attempts — of 13.8 last season. That mark placed him third on the Hoosiers behind star Trayce Jackson-Davis and Joey Brunk.
Smith is solid, too, at the rim in the half court. Per HoopLens, he had a PAM in non-transition and non-offensive rebound situations of 23.5, which was second to only Jackson-Davis.
“Physically, I wouldn’t say he’s overpowering on guys, but he’s strong enough and athletic enough that he can do some things around the basket,” Bozich said. “He hasn’t always been the best finisher, but he can definitely play above the rim and get off the floor.
“He’s definitely an athletic guy that can get rebounds, get second-chance points and finish in transition.”
Blau labeled Smith a “flashy” player in transition because of his athleticism. This is not an instance of Smith soaring above defenders in the open court, but it does give you an idea of the bounce he has. And this came against Louisville in December 2018. Smith finished with nine points, nine rebounds and pair of assists in this game, a one-point Indiana victory.
• Been one of Indiana’s best defenders in recent years. Looking back over the last couple of seasons, it is difficult for Bozich to point to a Hoosiers defender who was better than Smith.
His athleticism certainly provides a bit of an advantage on the defensive end, too, as he is able to match up with 3s and versatile 4s, Blau noted.
Again, Smith led Indiana in minutes played last season. To do so on an Archie Miller-coached team, Bozich said, it means you’re a plus on defense.
“He’s really good there,” Bozich added. “He can guard multiple positions. Given his size, he’s got enough athleticism and quickness to be able to guard 6-4, 6-5 guys and athletic enough to give guys his size and a little bit taller some problems, too.
“I think where Indiana is going to miss him most is defensively.”
Smith, according to Sports Reference, posted a career-best 99.8 defensive rating last season. He averaged a career-high 1.3 steals per game while posting a fouls committed per 40 minutes figure of 2.7 - the lowest of his career, per KenPom analytics.
• Solid on the glass. It is no secret that Arkansas has had its struggles in the rebounding department for quite some time. That again was the case last season when Musselman rarely floored a player taller than 6-6.
I’m expecting Smith to give the Razorbacks a boost here on the offensive and defensive end.
Last season, Smith finished with at least two offensive rebounds in 18 games and three-plus in 12 contests. As a freshman, he was No. 6 in Big Ten play in offensive rebound rate, per KenPom, and top 20 as as sophomore.
On the defensive glass, he grabbed five-plus rebounds eight times. Smith corralled nearly 13 percent of available defensive boards in conference play last season, according to Ken Pom.
Weaknesses
• Limited as a shooter. Through his three seasons at Indiana, Smith has knocked down only 20 of his 80 3-point attempts, and he hit half of those in 2019-20 on 38 looks. He shot a career-low 21.9 percent on 32 attempts as a sophomore.
“I’m not sure that’s going to get much better,” Bozich said of Smith's perimeter shooting. “He’s gotten a little bit better free throw-wise. I think he can stand to become a little more efficient. The 3-point shooting thing, I’ve never really seen him shoot it with much consistency.
“He’s had games where he’s knocked down 2-3 and got hot, but I would say he’s best suited being 12 feet and in.”
Blau said Smith has shown flashes of expanding his midrange game, but he could use more polish in that area.
“He definitely has room to grow as a player offensively,” Blau said. “He doesn't beat defenders off the dribble a ton, either.”
• Up and down at the foul line. Something else I do like about Smith after looking over his numbers on KenPom is his free throw rate. He finished in the top 10 in that category last season in Big Ten play. That's pretty impressive considering the talent in the league.
Smith essentially took four free throws for every 10 shots attempted a season ago, and he shot 100-plus free throws. The Razorbacks only had two players - Mason Jones and Jimmy Whitt - do so in Musselman’s first season.
However, Smith could stand to cash in a bit more when at the line. He shot 67 percent a season ago (70 of 104) and as a freshman (33 of 49), and during his sophomore year he made only 51.4 percent of his 70 attempts.