FAYETTEVILLE — Five questions for a panel of four writers on the topic of Arkansas' quarterbacks entering the 2022 season:
There were a few concerns about KJ Jefferson stepping into the role of full-time starter last season. Do you have any going into this fall?
Tom Murphy: Not really. Kendal Briles said in the spring the areas for KJ to improve were quicker reads and more on-target throws. He made major improvements from last year's Rice game and if he stays healthy he should battle Hendon Hooker and maybe a couple of others for best dual-threat QB in the SEC.
Scottie Bordelon: The questions I had about Jefferson entering last year were answered throughout the 2021 season. I was a bit unsure about his poise, composure in the pocket and accuracy, then he went on to have a remarkably efficient season throwing the ball. The only thing I’m slightly concerned about is if the connection with his cast of receivers isn’t quite where it was last season it could lead to him tucking the ball and running more, meaning additional body blows. He is the driving force offensively and it would be suboptimal if he were to get banged up.
Andrew Joseph: My main concern when it comes to KJ Jefferson is that his ultra-physical playing style can lead to unnecessary hits. Whether it’s mowing over defenders on a quarterback draw or throwing a block for a teammate, he seems to look for contact rather than avoid it. If he can stay healthy, he should be able to put up big numbers in his second season as the starter.
Matt Jones: Regardless of sport, it seems like it is hard for breakout offensive players to sustain repeat success. Teams learn how to defend a player they have seen in person and there is no doubt SEC defensive coordinators will incorporate ideas formed from seeing Jefferson a year ago. He has all the physical tools, but how does he adjust to the defensive wrinkles he has not seen?
What are reasonable expectations for Jefferson in Year 2 as the Razorbacks’ starter?
Tom Murphy: Bump up touchdown passes from 21 to 25-plus. His INTs: 4. Don't know how he can throw fewer than that. Completion percentage was 67.3 last season, so maybe he pushes that beyond 68%, maybe challenges Feleipe Franks' school record of 68.5%. I'd actually like to see his rushing numbers drop from 664 to between 500 and 600 to reduce the shots on his hips and thighs.
Scottie Bordelon: He surpassed 2,600 passing yards and 600 rushing yards last season, and he took great care of the ball. I think he can do that again. He is a superb athlete who focused his time this summer on trimming some weight. He fully understands he is the man, and we’ll see him play like it.
Andrew Joseph: I expect Jefferson to keep the Razorbacks competitive in each game of their daunting 2022 schedule. He was able to accomplish this for the most part – aside from the shutout at Georgia – last season and it would be unfair to expect much more after losing a generational talent in Treylon Burks as his No. 1 target.
Matt Jones: Given what was lost in the receiving game, a downturn in passing statistics (2,676 yards, 21 touchdowns) would not be a surprise, nor would an uptick in his rushing production (664 yards, 6 touchdowns). His rushing stats should also be helped by an older offensive line that should cut down on the 30 sacks allowed last season.
With Treylon Burks out of the picture, how confident are you that Jefferson can put up numbers similar to last season, or exceed them?
Tom Murphy: I'm really about 50-50 on whether he improves passing yardage from 2,676. I still think his completions will hover about the same, his deep-ball completions might tick down, but I think Trey Knox's targets and catches on underneath stuff will go up and perhaps balance out. I think a couple of the tailbacks will have larger catch numbers as well.
Scottie Bordelon: Jefferson has a No. 1-type receiver in Jadon Haselwood. They have worked this summer on their connection and timing. They know how important their synergy is to the overall success of the offense. But I think the passing game will be more by-committee than last season. If there is better balance among receivers, it will help Jefferson a great deal. He proved last season he can run an offense without repeatedly putting the ball in harm’s way, and you can only put up numbers as a quarterback if you have possession.
Andrew Joseph: I think it’s reasonable to expect Jefferson to put up a similar stat line to last season with a slight decline in some categories, such as completion percentage. Burks made incredibly athletic contested catches on throws that were likely incompletions for any other Razorback receiver last season.
Matt Jones: Perspective is needed when comparing stats from one season to the next. Was the team as balanced offensively? How good was the opposition? Numbers can be padded in non-conference games and Arkansas appears to have a tougher collection of those games this year than last year. As noted above, it would not surprise to see lower passing numbers due to the competition and the changes at receiver.
Where does Jefferson stack up among SEC quarterbacks?
Tom Murphy: Tennessee's Hooker had slightly better numbers as a dual-threat ace than Jefferson last year and Alabama's Bryce Young is the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. Hard to compare Kentucky's Will Levis, the media's third-team QB selection, to him other than in wins. I think KJ is in that mix with Levis and Will Rogers and Spencer Rattler and a few others in the tier right after Young and Hooker.
Scottie Bordelon: I think he is in the top 3-4. Alabama’s Bryce Young is an easy No. 1, and Jefferson, Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker and maybe Will Rogers at Mississippi State round out the top-tier guys. He will use not being named to any of the three preseason All-SEC teams as fuel, I'm sure.
Andrew Jospeh: Alabama quarterback Bryce Young is in a tier of his own, followed by Tennessee signal caller Hendon Hooker and Jefferson rounding out the top three. I think you could easily make an argument to put Jefferson at the No. 2 spot, but I’m going with Hooker’s experience over Jefferson’s to this point. Two transfer quarterbacks Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss) and Spencer Rattler (South Carolina) have the potential to make this prediction look foolish in hindsight, but they’re more of unknown commodities.
Matt Jones: He should be near the top. So many preseason college QB rankings seem to hinge on how a player projects to pro football, but at the end of the year other factors will be more important. How did they fit the scheme? How much did they win? Were they leaders for their team? In the sample size we have, Jefferson has checked those boxes. He was the starter for a nine-win team a year ago. Not many other returning SEC quarterbacks can say that.
Malik Hornsby returned to the team after experimenting with the transfer portal. Did his play this spring as a quarterback bring any assurance that he can be a solid backup?
Tom Murphy: He's still a little erratic with his accuracy. As much as it felt like the offense was on a razor's edge with Hornsby in on those 20 consecutive plays vs. Texas A&M, the bottom line was he produced a field goal drive (which would've been a TD if not for a dropped pass in the end zone) after the Bumper Pool pick that made it a 20-point game. I think he could be electric with 4-5 touches per game as a wideout-slot-motion guy.
Scottie Bordelon: He showed some big-time flashes as a passer in the spring, and obviously he is really gifted as a runner. I probably need to see more positive work in preseason camp to feel confident he could lead the team to success should something unforeseen happen to Jefferson. As one of the best athletes on the team, he is best suited at receiver, where he can make plays stretching the field with Jefferson still on the field.
Andrew Joseph: Hornsby is the most electric player on the team with the ball in his hands. Even if opposing defenses know he is going to run, they still have to chase him down, which has been proven tough to do. Arkansas will be in trouble if Hornsby ends up playing a significant amount of time at quarterback, but I think he could be an effective change-of-pace option a few times per game.
Matt Jones: Coaches were complimentary of his preparation and how much better he knew the offense. That seemed to be an issue when he played against quality competition last year.