FAYETTEVILLE — After notching back-to-back road wins over South Carolina and Kentucky in the last week, Arkansas is returning home.
The Razorbacks are set to host Mississippi State at 5 p.m. on Saturday as they look to extend their winning streak inside the SEC to six games. The matchup will mark Arkansas' first in Bud Walton Arena on a weekend with an afternoon tipoff since Dec. 3.
Here are a handful of things to keep an eye on:
• Arkansas’ interior defense
The Razorbacks are gearing up to face another big-bodied threat in the frontcourt, and their next task is slowing the Bulldogs’ Tolu Smith.
A 6-11 forward averaging 12.9 points and 7.6 rebounds per game in SEC play, Smith is the reigning SEC player of the week after putting up 20 points and 10 boards in a pair of wins last week. He has scored 25-plus points twice in Mississippi State’s four-game winning streak.
Arkansas’ front line, particularly Makhi and Makhel Mitchell, should be beaming with confidence after combining to limit Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe to seven points and seven rebounds on Tuesday. The Razorbacks will likely rely heavily on them again.
Smith averaged 14.5 points and 6 rebounds in 2 games against Arkansas a season ago. He went for 18 points and six rebounds in Starkville, Miss., but the Razorbacks frustrated him in the rematch.
In his last trip to Bud Walton Arena, the forward had 11 points and made only 2 of 8 field goal attempts.
“You’ve got to be able to defensively defend the paint, starting with Tolu Smith inside,” Arkansas coach Eric Musselman said Wednesday. “Certainly coming into Mississippi State, the post-up game, especially of Smith, is of the highest importance to us.”
According to Hoop-Math data, Smith has scored 120 times at the rim this season and made 68.2% of his attempts. Only one other Bulldogs player has more than 50 such buckets.
On the flip side, Smith will face a defense that allowed its last five SEC opponents to make just 58.2% of its looks at the rim and 23.3% of all other attempts in the lane, per CBB Analytics. The Razorbacks own a block rate of 14.4% during their winning streak.
Mississippi State has made at least 56% of its two-point tries in the last five games.
Given that the Bulldogs own the worst in-league three-point percentage (24.5%), their best bet is to work for a quality interior attempt. And that may play right into Arkansas’ hands.
• Jordan Walsh
The freshman wing, at long last, appears to be finding a rhythm.
Walsh reached double figures in scoring against Texas A&M and Kentucky, and grabbed 10 rebounds in Arkansas’ first road win of the season against South Carolina. The Razorbacks are plus-16 in his time in the lineup the last three games, including plus-10 on Tuesday.
“I think whether a player starts or comes off the bench, you want that player to be mentally engaged, be able to come in and have an impact right when he checks in, get into the flow of the game offensively, but make an impact on the boards, make an impact running the floor, make an impact defensively,” Musselman said Wednesday. “Certainly, we feel like Jordan has done that.”
CBB Analytics data shows Arkansas has an offensive rating of 113.0 with Walsh on the floor the last five games. The Razorbacks, too, rebounded one-third of their misses in his run and boosted their free throw rate (free throws attempted divided by field goals attempted) to 40%, up from 22.6% when he sat.
Musselman gave Walsh credit after the win at Kentucky for his movement without the basketball and defensive energy.
“I think he keeps getting better and better,” Musselman added. “When he plays with the energy we’ve seen of late, he really, really impacts the game on three levels — offensively, defensively and then on the backboards, both offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding.”
On Saturday, he could find himself matched up against Mississippi State’s 6-7 forwards DJ Jeffries and Cameron Matthews, who are second and third on the team in rebounding in league games. Limiting their effectiveness on the glass may be his top priority.
Jeffries is coming off an 18-point night against LSU in which he knocked down 5 threes and finished with 7 rebounds and 4 assists. Walsh’s versatility as a defender could really come into play in this matchup.
“He’s kind of an X-factor for us,” Musselman added. “When Jordan plays really well, we become a much, much better team on both sides of the ball.”
• Razorbacks’ quick-strike offense
Arkansas has been frustrating to watch at times in transition this season, but less so during its winning stretch in the SEC.
The Razorbacks have averaged 14.2 fast-break points per game in their last five league outings. Highs in that span include 21 against Texas A&M and 20 at Kentucky.
That per-game figure jumps to 14.8 points in their six wins inside the conference. In Arkansas’ five SEC losses, it plummets to 5.0 per game.
Mississippi State will enter the weekend boasting the nation’s No. 4 defense in terms of efficiency, allowing 89.8 points per 100 possessions. The Bulldogs, too, are No. 3 in in-conference defensive efficiency, so the Razorbacks taking advantage of transition opportunities could be vital.
According to CBB Analytics, Arkansas has scored at a 1.42 point-per-possession clip in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock in the last five games. It is 40 of 46 on two-point attempts and 2 of 6 beyond the arc.
The Razorbacks in the last five games have also scored quickly in other ways. According to CBB Analytics, they have operated at a 1.17 PPP rate on 18 scoring chances out of timeouts, and 1.14 PPP when possessing the ball first to begin a half.
“I think we try to take a lot of pride in our opening play of the game,” Musselman said Wednesday. “We try to run a play that we’ve never run before to start every game, a new set. And then we feel like it’s important to get a good shot to start the second half, whether you have the ball to start or if your first offensive possession is after a defensive possession.
“Then certainly after timeouts…offensively, we want to try to do the same thing and try to score off maybe a wrinkle that the opposition hasn’t seen.”
• Ball security
Creating turnovers has been a key ingredient in first-year Mississippi State coach Chris Jans’ recipe for success on the defensive end.
The Bulldogs are 11th nationally in turnover rate, causing a miscue on 23.6% of opponents’ possessions, per KenPom. They are also No. 1 in SEC games in turnover rate.
Mississippi State is forcing 15.5 turnovers per game this season and averages 9.5 steals.
Valuing the basketball on each possession figures to be a must for Arkansas if it hopes to secure a sixth straight league win.
“You’ve got to be prepared for physicality,” Musselman said Wednesday. “This is a team that loves to create steals. It’s a high-gamble team defensively. They jump in passing lanes. They try to control the pace of play.”
Interestingly, the Bulldogs have four of the league’s top 10 players in terms of steal rate, according to KenPom data, in Dashawn Davis (3rd), Shakeel Moore (5th), Cameron Matthews (6th) and DJ Jeffries (10th).
Davis has recorded multiple steals in 8 of the last 9 SEC games, and Moore has 3 three-plus steal games inside the league. Matthews led with 5 steals in Wednesday’s win over LSU and has 8 total in the last 2 games.
The Razorbacks have done a fair job recently limiting turnovers beyond their top three ball handlers. Anthony Black, Davonte Davis and Ricky Council must be sure in decision-making and strong with the ball.
And the same can be said for those who will be on the floor with them given the way the Bulldogs generate takeaways at multiple positions.